Declining Voter Turnout in America Is a Myth and Misunderstanding

[tritsofme]

Everyone lamenting America's low voter turnout would do well to read this article:

The Myth of the Vanishing Voter


The apparent decline in voter participation in national elections since 1972 is an illusion created by using the Bureau of the Census estimate of the voting-age population as the denominator of the turnout rate. We construct a more accurate estimate of those eligible to vote, from 1948–2000, using government statistical series to adjust for ineligible but included groups, such as noncitizens and felons, and eligible but excluded groups, such as overseas citizens. We show that the ineligible population, not the nonvoting, has been increasing since 1972. During the 1960s the turnout rate trended downward both nationally and outside the South. Although the average turnout rates for presidential and congressional elections are lower since 1972 than during 1948–70, the only pattern since 1972 is an increased turnout rate in southern congressional elections. While the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1971, the lower turnout rate of young voters accounts for less than one-fourth of reduced voter participation.



http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/work/wrm1/036007McDonaldMi.pdf

[MADem]

1. In New Zealand (I think) they fine people for NOT voting

Ya gotta have a doctor's note or fork out some money--interesting, the rich can better afford NOT to vote. Interesting system, that....

[anakie]

9. anywhere up to $50 fine in Australia

for not voting. That includes municipal, state and federal elections; as well as any referenda put to the people outside of a general election. There is no real move to end compulsory voting.

Peace

[MADem]

10. Heh, only the rich can AFFORD not to vote! Power to the people, indeed

It's a bit of a Nanny way to do it, but really, it does motivate 'bottom up' (economically speaking) participation in government....

How do they handle registration to vote? Can one escape the system by simply refusing to register?

[anakie]

13. it appears to be a red-blue issue

to use US terminology. Our conservative govt (ironically called the Liberal Party) is more in favour of non compulsory voting than the Labor Party. It is generally assumed (not proven of course) that conservative voters are more likely to vote than the 'left'.

Registration is done through the Australian Electoral Commission, and people I know have never registered and never been bothered. The appears to be no cross checking with other government records and we don't have a social security number like you guys.

We vote on a Saturday rather than on a work day and polls are open between 0800 and 1800. Fines can be waived with a good excuse ie sickness, holidays etc.

But at least we get a genuine reflection based on the whole electorate rather than just the 50% or so that occurs in the USA. Which to a foreign observer still has Bush's 28% being a potential majority.

peace

[MADem]

16. Makes total sense....rightwingers are into 'voter supression"

They want as few of the poor as possible to have the franchise. No wonder they want to unload the practice!

In many states, especially those with a GOP majority, they try to do the same thing, by tossing the poor off of the voter rolls, finding irregularities where none exist, accusing them (especially everyone who is a Black Democrat named, say, Johnson, or an Hispanic Democrat named, say, Garcia) of being felons, and so forth.

They do this way more to Democrats, too, regardless of income level, than Republicans. I've never met a GOP person with a voter issue. I've only heard of one--that CoulterBeast. And I haven't heard that they've done anything to her, really...

I know it actually happens--they tried to pull that shit with me--claimed I did not return my local census (when I did, by hand, in PERSON). When I pitched a fit, why, suddenly the document was miraculously FOUND. Funny that a special election is coming up, and the GOP candidate has a rare shot, and I am conspicuously for the other team....interesting how that happens, eh?

[Viva_La_Revolution]

2. 50% still don't vote at all

that's what bothers me.

[Selatius]

6. That's because there's an attitude that you're simply voting for the lesser of two evils

If you're voting between a mediocre candidate and a really bad candidate, the answer is simple, but don't expect that to translate very well at all into higher participation rates.

I also think that for a lot of people, they wish for viable third parties to vote for. Most polling done on the issue shows quite a large segment of America wishes for there to be more than just two viable parties, but that's not going to happen without serious constitutional reforms or even a new constitutional convention.

Also, something needs to be said about making election days into national holidays to ensure as many workers have the day off as possible.

I read that in the first round of elections for president in France, turnout was a whopping 85 percent of the voter population. It seems that if the contrasts between candidates is great, turnout seems to be higher, which is why a socialist and a far rightwinger made it to round two, as opposed to the centrist candidate Bayrou, who polled a distant third.

[Solon]

14. You bring up good points...

I think, for House elections, the districting, and gerrymandering, system, helps suppress voter turnout. This ties in with the lack of viable third parties as well. The incumbency rate for House members is close to 98%, and this is no accident. Few districts are competitive, so anyone of the minority parties within those districts aren't really motivated to vote, simply because its a waste of time. I hate to toot my own blog, but this post brings up some more details and some different ways to increase voter participation.

[HockeyMom]

3. The Young are on our side

I was reading the paper recently at work and made a comment to a part time, college student, coworker. The article was about the recent Republican debates. I was floored by her reaction. She went into a 15 minute tirade about the Republican Party and the direction of this country.

Lisa said she missed being able to vote in the last election because her 18th birthday fell two days after the election. She went on about everything from abortion, birth control, thousands of dead American soldiers, hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqi civilians, outsourcing, health care, Christian theocracy and world domination, etc. To say she was p'od would be an understatement. Lisa then said, "come hell or high water, I WILL be voting in the next election, and although I have not made up my mind who I will be voting for yet, it will NOT BE A REPUBLICAN." She also said that although she was raised Catholic, that that had no bearing whatsoever on her views, and also the views of her parents. So much for the "values votes".

I have had many a similar conversations with other young people where I used to work. Although Lisa was the most passionate, the other young people voiced similar viewpoints.

[illinoisprogressive]

12. people don't vote when the candidates are dull. If people are excited, they vote

[Lobster Martini]

4. About 40% in NJ in 2006

I should qualify that because I don't know how reliable the source is. But it's certainly a whole lot of people not showing up to pull a lever.

[bluestateguy]

5. Illegal immigrants and prisoners = more ineligible persons

We have a lot of illegal immigrants, and we are warehousing people into prison at levels that would impress many third world countries.

Hence the perception is that turnout is low or declining if you only count the voting age population, regardless of their eligibility to vote.

[tritsofme]

8. Not just illegals, resident aliens

are also ineligible to vote, and they make up record portions of our population.

[glitch]

7. K & R nt

[illinoisprogressive]

11. Lack of voting by young is a myth, too. You should see all the young

people who are registered on the Obama site. and the 20 somethings are voting for the first time in the primary because they are really excited. If you have an exciting candidate, they will vote.
People don't vote when the candidates are dull.

[Gold Metal Flake]

15. This seems relevent here...

"How many of our Christians have what I call `the Goo-Goo' syndrome? Good Government. They want everyone to vote! I don't want everyone to vote. Elections are not won by the majority of people - they never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now! As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections, quite candidly, goes up as the voting populous goes down!"

Conservative strategist Paul Weyrich, while speaking at a church.