Of Swans And Spoilers (Charlie Cook on what is needed for Democrats to succed in Nov)

[FBaggins]

As we head toward November's mid-term elections, the outlook remains dire for Democrats. For the trajectory of this campaign season to change in their favor, two things need to happen -- unemployment must drop significantly, and the public's attitude toward the new health care reform law must become much more positive. Neither seems likely, though. Increasingly, it appears that for Democrats to turn things around, Republicans would have to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or a "black swan" -- an extraordinarily unexpected event that causes a tremendous change -- would have to swim to the rescue of the president's party.

...snip...

That leaves the party's hopes hinging on either a "black swan" event (a term employed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable) or a Republican implosion. More than a few GOP veterans worry about the latter. They fret about an undercurrent among the party's rank and file that could lead to the nomination of extreme and/or inexperienced candidates who could spoil a potentially great year for the GOP.

One top-notch Republican strategist says that along with the anti-Democratic-incumbent feelings coursing through much of the electorate, a virulent anti-establishment sentiment among some GOP primary voters could take a real toll on mainstream candidates who would stand a good chance of winning a general election. This throw-the-bums-out dynamic seems most likely to hurt congressional Republicans who voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program and are now confronting primary challengers.

...snip...

So the Republican Party has its difficulties, but the national political environment remains good for the GOP. If anything holds down GOP gains, it's more likely to be Republican voters' in some races opting for weak nominees or a huge game-changing event that takes everyone by surprise rather than Democrats' figuring out how to turn their own situation around.



http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/6350

[monmouth]

1. Well if Charlie said it, Dems should look forward to a good election in November..LOL..n/t

[FBaggins]

2. Cook certainly doesn't have a perfect crystal ball...

...but he has a pretty good track record.

More importantly, he isn't biased against Democrats.

[still_one]

4. I believe both of his reasons for the Democrats lack of popularity, will actually turn around

The unemployment picture is slowly getting better, and as more people realize that the HCR isn't the end of the world, along with those it helps immediately, that picture will turn around also

The Democrats may be in trouble, however so are the republicans. When Ron Paul handly won one of the straw polls, and tied in another, that demonstrates that republicans within their own party are NOT happy with their leadership.

I don't call that a black swan event, I call that a realization within the republicans own party that the republicans themseleves have not done what their constiuients want, and that is why I suspect the Democrats will not do as badly as everyone is saying

[FBaggins]

7. Is "better" good enough?

Historically, analysts have said that economic figures past about July are too late to settle into the electorate's mind. It would take a massive improvement on the ground for unemployment to decline to, say, 9% by Fall, yet nobody is going to look at that and say that things are "good".

More importantly, the unemployment rate is very likely to go UP for the first few months of improvement (as more discouraged workers re-enter the labor force to start looking for jobs they now think are there). Returning job seekers (formerly "discouraged" almost certainly outnumber the new jobs for a few months... boosting the reported rate.

The Democrats may be in trouble, however so are the republicans.

Looking at the state-level polls... can you point to some of them? I can only think of a handful that are even in competitive races right now... and can't remember the last time I read a piece about a top-tier chalenger deciding to get IN to a race for us instead of passing.

[still_one]

3. Who knows what will happen, and like most analysts neither does he. However,

does labor in this country really believe they will get a better deal from republicans? This is the party where reagan declared all out war against them

do the people in this country really believe that Medicare and Social Security will be protected by the republicans? This is the party who is working to privitize those policies. Think what would have happened if social security was invested in the stock market

do the people in this country really believe the republican policy of deregulation is a good thing?

Do the 40 million uninsured people really believe the republicans will help them with healthcare?

As "dismal" as the media likes portray the Democratic party, that does NOT exptrapolate to those individuals voting for the republicans, and that in my view is why the so-called disaster that will fall the Democrats in November will not happen

Of course, if the Democrats retain control of Congress, I wonder what excuse the pollesters will pull out of their ass why they got it wrong

[FBaggins]

5. Some responses

does labor in this country really believe they will get a better deal from republicans?

Nope. But some of labor (particularly many in the teachers' unions) are tired of "the lesser of two evils" (some aren't even sure we're "lesser" any more)

do the people in this country really believe that Medicare and Social Security will be protected by the republicans?

In some polls, yes.

do the people in this country really believe the republican policy of deregulation is a good thing?

I doubt most have that issue high on their list.

Do the 40 million uninsured people really believe the republicans will help them with healthcare?

The better question is "how many of them vote?" and whether those who do will see a benefit in time for November. And, of course, how many of them aren't ticked off at the lack of a single payer system.

As "dismal" as the media likes portray the Democratic party, that does NOT exptrapolate to those individuals voting for the republicans

Keep in mind that you don't have to vote republican to hose the party... you just have to stay home. Most polls show a dangerous shift in party identification, but the bigger concern is the level of enthusiasm. Turnout is always a key, and recent indicators say that this is where the danger is.

Of course, if the Democrats retain control of Congress, I wonder what excuse the pollesters will pull out of their ass why they got it wrong

You think that's good enough? I'd say that the mid-point for most predictions right now is a loss of 5-6 Senate seats and maybe 20-25 House seats. If that's what happens, you really think people will consider it a Democratic victory?

Heck... if it weren't for the 2012 playing field in the Senate, I might prefer to lose it by one than keep it by 1-3 seats. It's not like they'll be able to get anything done with such a slim majority, but then we can point to what they're pushing.

[still_one]

9. and the republican establishment is in just as much trouble in their own ranks

Ron Paul or someone like him could really screw up the works

I appreciate your views, but my feeling is in spite of the polls, the Democrats will not do as badly as predicted

[FBaggins]

10. You didn't happen to note...

...that Paul was there last time as well?

See... the problem with that is that they don't need to support the republican establishment since there is no national candidate at the top of the ticket. They're voting against something... not for something.

I appreciate your views, but my feeling is in spite of the polls, the Democrats will not do as badly as predicted

Let's certainly hope so. But there's a whole boatload of "sucks" that's still "not as badly as predicted". Just a year ago it looked like we were going to pick up more seats (at least a couple in the Senate) and cruise into redistricting in a strong position.

[damntexdem]

6. Some of the provisions of HCR click in before the election:

e.g., Sept. 21, dependent children can stay on parents' plans till age 26.

And employment numbers are increasing.

The real issue is a different one, however: will voters' experiences in their lives influence them more than the bloviating on Faux News and the MSM?

[Ex Lurker]

8. no need for a black swan event. if the economy continues to improve, Democratic prospects

will look a lot better by November.

[FBaggins]

11. Have we all forgotten "it's the economy stupid" ???

When did the economy begin to recover after Bush I's recession? How many months of positive employment numbers were there before November?

Employment turned positive in March and had added roughly a million jobs by November. The unemployment rate continued to climb through June and then started to improve (falling from 7.8% to 7.4% in November).

That didn't work out so well for the incumbent.

[geek tragedy]

12. Bush was a terrible candidate, alienated his base by breaking his

"read my lips" vow, had a third party challenger, and was facing the last Democrat who could hold together the old FDR coalition.

[FBaggins]

13. No question about it.

But there's no way to discount the impact of the economy (and the fact that eary stages of improvement and a big stock runnup weren't enough to turn public opinion).

[geek tragedy]

14. The economy plus him seeming out of touch

and unconcerned was a lethal combination.

Different dynamic in off-year elections of course--president's party normally gets its ass handed to them in the first off-year cycle.

[Ex Lurker]

15. Plus he was bucking GOP fatigue

after 12 years in office, people just plain get tired of the same party having the white house.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. We Might Not See 7.4% Unemployment Until 2015

As for the forseeable future we might not see nine percent unemployment, ergo

http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm

[mdmc]

16. ..