How Are We Going To Mitigate Our Losses In The Mid Terms?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

It seems that it's inevitable that we are going to lose seats as some of our gains in 06 and 08 have come from states and districts that are red or purple. I can remember how painful our losses in 80 and 94 were and would hate to see them repeated again.

Here is some historical date that should give some of us pause:


Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in 14 of 16 midterm elections with an average loss of 23 seats

I'd like to see a breakdown of the current state of all these races. What does Nate Silver say?

[Tesha]

1. Well, we could do some really great things before November.

Or we could let the Blue Dogs continue to ensure that Democrats aren't
worth shit at accomplishing anything and then lose it all to the Republicans
who worse than shit but do know how to advance their agenda, unlike
the Democrats.

Tesha

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. My Republicant Congressperson , John Mica, Runs Unopposed Or Against Token Opposition

I'd love to vote for a Blue Dog that could beat him.

[left is right]

28. When I have only the choice of voting for a republican or a known republican lite

I write in names like Paul Wellstone, Ted Kennedy. I know some say I am throwing away my vote but I say to vote otherwise is also throwing it away. BTW, I think Grayson will also be added to my list. I have grown to like him a lot!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I Guess You Can Write In The Name Of Someone That Doesn't Live In Your District

But I don't see the utility of it.

BTW, Grayson represnts the distict contiguous to my district.

[Tesha]

50. It communicates a message to the national party that they're running people who...

...*REAL* Democrats won't vote for. If you just stay away from the
voting booth, nobody knows where you stand. But if you write in
the name of a liberal lion, it may not serve to elect anyone but it
unmistakably says you want candidates who are farther to the left
than the Republicans-running-as-Democrats who often get the
support of the modern-day Democratic Party.

Tesha

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. by going on the offense against vulnerable GOPers in office.

What's good for the goose, is good for the goose.

[Me.]

4. I'm Not Counting GOP Chickens Before They Hatch

It's seven months before the election and anything can happen. Yes, the CW is that we are doomed but I tell you what...the Gopers have been having hysterics and tantrums for well over a year, sooner or later the law of diminishing returns will kick in and if there's one thing we can count on with the GOP is that they always overplay their hand.

[left is right]

29. Counting GOP Chickens Before They Hatch

I wouldn’t eat those eggs either. I bet them eggs taste nasty!

[SmileyRose]

5. I don't agree it's inevitable.

the talking heads were SURE it would be Hillary V Mittens ---- ooops.

[ncteechur]

6. Exactly, and there are several repubs who will most likely lose their seats as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Am Not Relying On The Track Record Of Media Bloviators But Actual Research

Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in 14 of 16 midterm elections with an average loss of 23 seats

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2009110502/

[WhiteTara]

12. thanks for the reality check

I think we will pick some, lose some. That's the way it usually goes. I also think that 30 million people are going to be happier when they get to go to the doctor. I, myself, can hardly wait until June.

[laughingliberal]

54. " I also think that 30 million people are going to be happier when they get to go to the doctor."

I don't see that helping us in November as the mandate does not kick in until 2014. Right now all I'm hearing is how all the taxes take effect immediately and the expanded coverage not for 4 years. Now, I know this is a simplistic view of it but the people telling me this do not.

[WhiteTara]

55. Medicaid and the high risk pool kick in this June

I have had a couple of really bad years as far as money goes and I am eligible for medicaid. Many others are as well. I realize that I won't be able to go to just any doctor as not all take medicaid, but it is a start. If I get hit by a truck, at least they won't leave me on the curb in downtown LA.

[old mark]

8. Please don't believe that. This is NOT inevitable at all - we can really defeat them again

if we back decent candidates who are willing to campaign and vote for them. really not magic - just get Democrats off their complaining asses to vote. You can all go back to complaining immediately after.

mark

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Read Nate Silver-He's One Of Us And A Flipping Genius

A couple of weeks ago, we examined the potential upside case for Democrats in November's midterms. If the party were able to limit their losses to about 20 House seats and 3-4 Senate seats, it might not have as deleterious an effect on their policy agenda as you might think.

But that is the upside case for Democrats. It is not the base case, and it is certainly not the worst case -- both of which look as grim as ever. Although I think people may somewhat underestimate the probability of a shift in momentum back toward the Democrats, they may simultaneously be underestimating the magnitude of losses that might occur if momentum fails to change, or moves in the other direction.



......


A couple of weeks ago, we examined the potential upside case for Democrats in November's midterms. If the party were able to limit their losses to about 20 House seats and 3-4 Senate seats, it might not have as deleterious an effect on their policy agenda as you might think.

But that is the upside case for Democrats. It is not the base case, and it is certainly not the worst case -- both of which look as grim as ever. Although I think people may somewhat underestimate the probability of a shift in momentum back toward the Democrats, they may simultaneously be underestimating the magnitude of losses that might occur if momentum fails to change, or moves in the other direction.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[old mark]

14. I read Silver's article and I don't believe it. If anyone does, it should just

serve as incentive to get more Dems out to vote.

What is is about Democrats and voting? Dont people believe in it? Even if you think it's a complete waste, it is only a waste of a short time - take a book.

mark

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. He Was Spot On In 08

He predicted every single race accurately. If you include House races, Senate races, gubernatorial races , and the presidential race, he must have been 500 for 500.

And off year elections are always bad for us because much of our base stays home; i.e young folks and non-majority folks.

[old mark]

34. Well, then maybe the young folks should put down their gameboys

for an hour or so.


mark

[backscatter712]

47. I read his article. His 50-60 scenario, in his own words, is a worst-case scenario.

It's not inevitable, but he's issuing a very valid warning that if Democrats fuck up too badly, it could be a repeat of '94. But Nate himself stated that such an outcome is not inevitable, or even probable.

I also believe that some DUers' predictions that the GOP will jump the shark and we'll gain seats this fall is wishful thinking. We're not going to gain seats.

My bet is that we'll probably lose 25-35 seats in the House and six in the Senate - a painful outcome, but one that leaves Democrats still in control of Congress. But it's still up in the air. If Democrats play their cards right, or the GOP really fucks up badly, we could lose as little as 15-20 seats. If Obama and Democrats fuck things up badly, we could lose control of Congress. Hopefully, Obama's smart enough to not fall into any traps, so we can keep control.

One of the key variables is unemployment. If unemployment starts to visibly decline, the anger against Democrats may fade a bit. If unemployment stays where it is, or goes up, say because of a double-dip recession (which I believe is possible, but not the most probable scenario), then this November's gonna hurt.

[rucky]

15. I hope the Dem incumbents go in thinking like that...

so they don't pull a Coakley.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. My Blood Is Blue

The fact a Republicant sits in Ted Kennedys' Senate seat should give any Democrat with a modicum of common sense pause.

I see polls that Barbara Boxer is in a tight race. This is flipping sad and unbelievable.

Work for the best and prepare for the worst.

This "what me? worry" attitude will be our ruination.

[Xenotime]

9. November will be the knock out punch for the GOP

[L. Coyote]

11. Only opponents spread this kind of unwarranted pessimism during an R meltdown

This is an era of "changs" you realize.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Is Nate Silver One Of Our Opponents?

That graph in the upper right hand corner is ominous.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


As is this piece of analysis:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/generic-ballot-points-toward-possible.html


And how are they melting down? They won recent gubernatorial races in VA and NJ and installed a goober in Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

Respectfully, some of this happy talk reminds me of Hitler saying he was consolidating his victories in April of 1945.

[shotten99]

23. He *usually* is right on the money...

[BootinUp]

22. get off it nt

[robinblue]

27. Keeping your head in the sand will not do Democrats any good.

[L. Coyote]

40. Affirmatively declaring we will unquestionably lose is asinine

Read the title of the OP. It has Republican bias written all over it, perfect for Faux.

[robinblue]

52. OP only says we will lose some seats. I think we will lose seats also.

It seems that it's inevitable that we are going to lose seats as some of our gains in 06 and 08 have come from states and districts that are red or purple

[shotten99]

18. I don't think there are any surprises coming.

It will be bad, but not a blowout, majority losing election cycle.
Painful though..The gridlock in a year will be nothing to what we have now,

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. That's What I Am Hoping For

The prospect of Mr. RentATan as Speaker Of The House is enough to make on consider emigrating.

[shotten99]

21. You and me both.

They're scarier than they were 18 months ago. That's for certain.

[BootinUp]

20. I think its too early to know

if the economy continues to improve, and the teabaggers continue letting thoughts escape from their f'd up brains it could go much better than history might suggest.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. That Would Be Nice

I think we let our partiship affect our thinking.

When the economy is bad a plurality or majority of folks blame the incumbent party for their misery whether that blame is justified and regardless of who the incumbent party is. It's just human nature. The only exception I can think of in "recent" times is the 34 mid terms.

[WilliamPitt]

25. Nothing is inevitable.

But if you want to "mitigate our losses," try this: Vote Democrat. Tell everyone you know to do the same.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Ha

I never voted Republicant in my life and I have been voting since 1980. In the county I live in the Democrats were so weak that they didn't field candidates in many races; in some instances it was a Republicant and a Libeterian.

[Bluenorthwest]

31. Good to hear about your county

It makes sense that you feel as you do, living there. I've been asking all the Silver pushing negative trope pushers where they live. Most will not answer, and keep blank profiles.
The Democrats I vote on will all be elected. I have no doubt at all. We work hard here to do that, and it gets done. So I recommend doing the work, and actually, I think those who are so sure Democrats are going to lose so large should not be wasting time promoting that idea, but rather should be out trying to correct what is wrong in their areas.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Nate Is Smart And One Of Us

He's also unfailingly accurate.

I don't think my district has sent a Democrat to Washington in forty years. Sadly, I am right next to Alan Grayson's district. It would be nice to vote for a winner.

[Bluenorthwest]

35. Here's the thing

No one is 'unfailingly accurate'. It is that simple. Nate is strong with numbers, he is not as strong with the human elements, the random happenings, and the general chaos of an election year. He has one way of looking at things, but that one way is not a full view of the events at hand. Many elections in history have been swayed in surprising ways by uncontrollable events that occur beyond anyone's predictions. The numbers do not reflect those elements at all.
The numbers are not unfailingly accurate, nor is anyone who predicts the future. No one. No matter how smart or how liberal.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Yes

He's relying on aggregate polling which is only reliable and of utility for the time period in which the polling was conducted. Throw in the historical date that suggest the in party loses seats during a mid term election and you would be forced to conclude that if the mid terms were next Tuesday we would suffer serious setbacks. But the mid terma are not next Tuesday.

And as I said up thread we care coming off three big losses in a row in VA, NJ, and MA with a goober winning Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

Let's hope and work to make things change.

And if we were to actually gain seats in November I would be so chastened as to not prognosticate on anything.

[Bluenorthwest]

37. Work and hope, I'm with you there

And Nate and his numbers aside, the fact is it is not over till it is over.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. I Desperately Want A Democratic House And Senate

If I have to see Boehner's and McConnell's ungly mug in leadership positions I will fliiping barf.

[KharmaTrain]

33. Also Some Great Pick-Up Opportunities...

I think Nate's a bit premature on his doom and gloom scenario. IRC, in '06 at this time, there were still constant corporate media reports of a pending Democratic wipe out that November...giving the GOOP fillibuster proof majorities (:shiver:) that somehow turned into a Democratic majority a few months later.

There may be some rushpublican gains in this year's election, but primarily in purple and red areas...those feeling the biggest heat are Blue Dogs more than Progressives or Liberals. There are also some very interesting pick-up opportunities. Recent polls from Ohio look very nice as well as Missouri. There's a long way to November, most of the campaigns haven't even started and there are some brutal GOOP primaries ahead that could create some real messes in their sandbox.

The hand-wringing isn't such a bad thing...I'd hate to see complacency here and have been seeing Democrats begin to energize...but right now a majority of the voters aren't paying attention to November...it's a long way away...

[MilesColtrane]

38. The veto stamp.

Obama better find it, and warm it up.

[L. Coyote]

41. Unrec for sounding like Faux News

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. Is Nate Silver A Member Of FauxNews?

Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats


A couple of weeks ago, we examined the potential upside case for Democrats in November's midterms. If the party were able to limit their losses to about 20 House seats and 3-4 Senate seats, it might not have as deleterious an effect on their policy agenda as you might think.


...

Their bad news is that the House popular vote (a tabulation of the actual votes all around the country) and the generic ballot (an abstraction in the form of a poll) are not the same thing -- and the difference usually tends to work to Democrats' detriment. Although analysts debate the precise magnitude of the difference, on average the generic ballot has overestimated the Democrats' performance in the popular vote by 3.4 points since 1992. If the pattern holds, that means that a 2.3-point deficit in generic ballot polls would translate to a 5.7 point deficit in the popular vote -- which works out to a loss of 51 seats, according to our regression model.


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/generic-ballot-points-toward-possible.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. And Silver's Finding Are Reenforced By Stan Greenberg's Analysis

Clinton Pollster: If Election Were Today, It Would Be Like '94


The pollster manning the ship for President Bill Clinton during the disastrous 1994 congressional elections is experiencing some déjà vu as the Democratic Party approaches this off-year contest.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday morning, Stan Greenberg -- alongside his fellow strategist and party adviser James Carville -- said that the signs of electoral bloodbath exist today, though not quite as strongly as they did 16 years ago.

"We are on the edge of it. but we are not there," Greenberg said, at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. "If the election were now, we would have a change election; we would have a 1994."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/31/clinton-pollster-if-elect_n_520040.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. Thia Headline Is From The Huiffington Post. It Makes Mine Look Tame

Clinton Pollster: If Election Were Today, It Would Be Like '94

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/31/clinton-pollster-if-elect_n_520040.html

[kenny blankenship]

42. Start caving RIGHT NOW!

Because we haven't been caving enough.

[frustrated_lefty]

45. Build nuke shelters and quiver in fear?

This kind of Henny-Penny post rubs me wrong, but I'll try to address the concern. Simply put, nominate some progressives to contest every seat. Compete against incumbent democrats, ya know, like Arlen Spector.

Put genuine progressives up in traditionally red districts.

Grayson has proven progressive values have a place in Congress. Voters won't run away from the progressive boogey-man. They will, in fact, shake his hand and write a check.

Dean has proven we should fight for representation in traditionally red districts. Red districts can turn purple, or even blue. You may or may not win a vote by presenting your case. You're definately going to lose it if you don't even try, or prematurely decide it isn't even worth fighting for.

That's really pretty simple. I'll be surprised to see those two things happen in my lifetime.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. They Must Have A Bunch Of Henny Penny Posts Over At The Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/31/clinton-pollster-if-elect_n_520040.html

[frustrated_lefty]

48. It's April. There's over 1/2 a year to go.

One scandal can throw everything in the air. One Supreme Court justice may pass. Wars can start or end. We might find the cure for cancer tomorrow.

Sorry if you take offense at this, but, yeah, it's really henny penny to be running around at this point, grinding ones hands and worrying "omg, what are we going to do? This is HUGH!!!!!!"

Assuming losses at this point is simply premature. What can we start working on now to improve our chances of a democratic Congress later this year? That's a pretty reasonable question, actually a good one to ask.

Assuming a priori that we are losing seats in November and starting with the assumption that we must do something to stem the tide is alarmist. If it will make you happy, I will gladly write the Huffington Post and tell them the same exact thing.

It may seem like I am being unduly harsh with you, and i apologize if that is the impression you are receiving. I'm trying to say "take heart." Don't accept losses as a forgone conclusion. Work towards a better future. Maybe everything is predetermined by some all-knowing being, and we can't change the future by one whit. We don't know that, though. So, our efforts to make a better future cannot hurt, under the worst of circumstances, and may only help, assuming a better world.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. I Treat Politics Like Lfe.

I plan for the worst while working and hoping for the best.

I just don't want the Democrats to be like Josef Stalin who went into a three day drunk after Germany invaded his nation because he never believed it could happen. He also ignored his generals who told him such an event was likely to occur.

[opihimoimoi]

53. The dude from Murphy and Murphy sez this year is different...Obama gonna give the DEMS a boost

there will hardly be a change...and if so...our Dems will pick up several House seats and maybe a couple of Senate ones too...

The GOP had squandered their turn at the HELM...

They will not convince the voters to return them any time soon...the results of their tenure sucked and still does...

Obamas face will be chiseled on MT Rushmore in 7 years...or less....