Why Democrats Are Not Scared of November 2010 Election

[Ian David]

By JAY NEWTON-SMALL / WASHINGTON Jay Newton-small / Washington – Mon Apr 5, 4:45 pm ET

Democrats had hoped that passing health care reform would give them a much-needed bump in the polls ahead of this year's difficult midterm election; instead, their ratings have dipped, renewing worries about a political debacle in November. The worst-case scenario recalls the ghosts of 1994, when Newt Gingrich's Republicans took control of the House following the failure of the Clinton Administration's attempt at health care reform.

There are certainly parallels. In 1994, Bill Clinton's favorability poll numbers were at 51%, about where Obama's are now. And the Dems were polarized by a series of tough (and strikingly familiar) issues: a carbon tax, gays in the military and health care. But will history repeat itself, with the party in power bearing the brunt of a wave of discontent? Here are five reasons the 2010 midterm scenario is different, and perhaps less dire for the Democrats, than 1994's.

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2. Fundraising

Most polls may put the GOP ahead in voter enthusiasm, but that excitement has yet to translate into campaign cash. By the end of February, the National Republican Campaign Committee, which works to elect Republicans to the House, had slightly more than $6 million in the bank, compared with the nearly $20 million held by its Democratic counterpart. The Republican committee in the Senate that finances campaigns had $12.9 million on hand, compared with $14.3 million available to Senate Democrats. And the Republican National Committee trailed the Democratic National Committee, $9.5 million to $10.7 million. The war-chest gap in the House is the most notable, because that chamber is the one Republicans have the highest hopes of recapturing.

3. Tea Parties

While a lot of money is going directly to Republican candidates, they're not always the candidates the GOP would prefer to field. In Kentucky, for example, insurgent Tea Party darling Rand Paul has raked in nearly $2 million, outraising the establishment candidate, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, by more than $100,000. In Florida, conservative insurgent Marco Rubio has raised more than $3.4 million and is leading Governor Charlie Crist, the presumptive Republican candidate, in the polls. To see the potential dangers of the Tea Party groundswell, the GOP leadership need look no further than the debacle in New York's 23rd district - where Democrats won a Republican safe seat after conservative activists put up a third candidate against Dede Scozzafava, a GOP candidate deemed too moderate by Tea Party types. (Watch a video about the Florida GOP.)

More:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100405/us_time/08599197731300

[zipplewrath]

1. I will say, it just doesn't look like '94

As pissed as alot of voters are about the health insurance stimulus package, it isn't really translating into a kind of 1994 anger. Primarily they seem more pissed by the process than the outcome. The economy still dominates their concerns and although I think the dems will lose seats in both chambers, I'm suspicious that it won't be significantly different than if insurance reform HADN'T passed. And really, they are facing one of the most fractured and disorganized GOP's I've seen in a LONG time.

[KharmaTrain]

2. Also The GOOP Offers No Solutions...

In '94 Gingrich crafted his "Contract On America"...a novel and great PR bit that the corporate media trumpeted and influenced a lot of votes. There is no such "contract" now. In '94 the GOOP could claim that the Democrats controlled the House for over 40 years and give them a chance. Today, after they were given that chance, we see what a rushpublican majority brings...Abramoff, bank bailouts, wars for profit, tax cuts for the rich and trying to impose their morality (Terry Schaivo anyone???) on the country. They were soundly rejected the last two elections based on their corruption and ineptness and no matter how poorly the Democrats have performed, most people realize a GOOP majority would be a real disaster.

Methinks the GOOP read their own press clippings too much...the teabagger "revolution" is a looming disaster on their side, not ours. We're going to see some bruising primaries in the next couple months that could rip the GOOP to shreads...all that's holding them together right now is hate.

Cheers...

[zipplewrath]

4. Well, and anti-incumbent anger

The independents are what's in play here. The ugly reality is that they were the ones that caused much of the shifts in the last election in red/blue states. Many of these folks aren't deeply into the day to day politics and they are far more influenced by overall trends. With the economy hurting and folks generally pissed off, they can go right as easily as left. It is encouraging to see that in some fairly "red" districts" there are some goofy GOP primaries going on. That could end up hurting their fund raising and making them spend a fair amount of money shoring up weak candidates in otherwise "safe" districts. I don't envy Steele, or whomever gets his job next.

[Mari333]

3. they would be wrong.

[RDANGELO]

5. One difference never mentioned

The nation is much more comfortable in it's own skin as a diverse country. I think the 94 thing was as much cultural as anything else. The Dems will still lose some seats, but not as much as people think.

[OHdem10]

6. In 94 the Democrats were unprepared. They scoffed at the idea

the GOP could pull off a turnover. Simply did not take
the threat seriously.

From the beginning of this term the Democrats have been
preparing for just such a situation. Hopefully being
prepared helps some.