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Contenders (strong probability of winning nomination)
1. Barak Obama 2. Hillary Clinton 3. John Edwards
comment: I would put Obama as the front runner at this time, with Clinton just behind. Edwards within striking distance. Any of these three has a real chance to win. Edwards would have the widest appeal in a national election.
Dark horses (small probability of winning nomination)
1. Joe Biden 2. Bill Richardson 3. Chris Dodd
comment: Out of this group, Biden has by far the most potential to move up. If any of the top three fade or make a major blunder, Biden could take their place. Richardson and Dodd have slim chances to move up, and would need some lucky events and turns in the campaign to do so.
Dead-enders (no probability of winning the nomination)
1. Dennis Kucinich 2. Mike Gravel
comment: these candidates have virtually no chance to win the nomination. Gravel is the kookiest candidate, and should be excluded from future debates, otherwise he serves to make the Dems look bad. Kucinich brings up some good points, but lacks mainstream appeal.
Undeclared candidates (rumored to possibly run)
1. Al Gore {strong contender} 2. Wes Clark {dark horse} 3. Gary Hart {dead-ender} 4. John Kerry {dead-ender}
comment: The first category by these names is the probability of the person entering the race, the second is the section they would be in if they did join.
Comments are welcome.
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