Here's Why The Employment Situation Is Now Way Stronger Than Anyone Realizes

[FarCenter]

<SNIP>
There is a barbell effect in the labor markets which no one seems to see, which is rendering the aggregate payroll figures meaningless. There is a barbell effect taking place, where the 40% who have been jobless for more than six months, who worked in the bubble industries of real estate, housing, and construction, are never going to see their jobs come back.

The 60% who are short term unemployed, who recently lost jobs in finance, accounting, and health care, are getting rehired very quickly. In fact, 20% of the jobless are getting rehired in only six weeks. There is another effect at work. While the employment rate for those with no high school diploma is 16%, the kind of worker who lost their manufacturing jobs to China, the jobless rate for those with college degrees is only 4.5%. This is proof that the dying sectors of the US economy is delivering the highest unemployment rates, and that America is clawing its way up the value chain in the global race for economic supremacy. It is what America does best, creative destruction with a turbocharger.
<SNIP>
http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-the-unemployment-situation-is-now-way-stronger-than-anyone-realizes-2010-3

[Fumesucker]

1. The deadliest bullshit is odorless and transparent..

Creative destruction with a turbocharger?

This guy has been huffing the paint thinner a bit too much.

[ipaint]

2. He dropped 40% of the unemployed off the face of the earth

to come to that conclusion. Isn't that cheating. Whether the jobs come back or not has nothing to do with the fact millions don't have one.

[FarCenter]

6. The long term unemployed will stay unemployed until they find different types of work

It highlights the fact that, for example, people who were working in the business of building McMansion plantations at the edge of commuting distances to metro areas are not going to find the same job. Those developments are no longer economically viable as places for people to live unless they are retired or independently wealthy. The cost of commuting to work by car in a high-priced gasoline era makes them unattractive to buyers.

Same thing for the mortgage brokers, real estate agents, title company staff and others who were involved in the housing bubble.

These people are faced with finding other occupations, most likely at lower salaries, possibly in other parts of the country. North Dakota seems to have a lower unemployment rate than Arizona.

The good news is that the other 60% of the unemployed are finding jobs fairly quickly. That means that as the economy improves they will rapidly become employed and start feeding most of their wages into consumption, further strengthening the economy.

So you can look at it as glass 60% full or glass 40% empty.

[ipaint]

11. And in what country will they find "different" jobs?

Or does different mean a quarter of the pay cleaning the homes, offices and toilets of the college educated.

That ought to work out well especially for families supported by older workers.


But hey, it's a culling of the herd. Hopefully you'll get your turn at age 58.

[Dr.Phool]

41. I think the college educated will be doing the cleaning for the oligarchs.

[northernlights]

50. whatever you've been smoking...I want some

I'm one of those college educated types. I worked my way up to a 6 figure income between the ages of 21 and 48, which took a dive to zero during 5 of the W years, and a grand $10/hour for 18 months of the W years. In between, I lived off my now wiped out retirement savings.

Finally, in year 2 of O, I have a job. I just got a raise, so now I make $12.50/hour, which I try to live on part time while going to school part time for health care training. I don't know wtf I'm going to live on during my clinicals (5 months internship, no pay, full time otj training plus homework plus exams plus special projects) unless I'm able to sell my house (which will bring my total losses to half or more of my life savings).

You think I'm going to be spending big any time soon? Or any time, period? :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

I splurged last November on shorts and tees at Wallies World that were on sale for $1. I'll do the same for sweats this spring. I cut my own hair now -- just the bangs. Rest is back to hippie-style. :D Once I sell this place, finish school and am working full time at my new career, I'll spend my "free" time growing much of my own food. I plan to significantly downsize from a house to a cabin or camp or even a yurt.

I already make my own medicine from plants....can't afford and don't want health "insurance."

So don't count on me to help your pipedream recovery. I'm sure there are plenty more out there like me.

[KG]

3. gee. a business site doing a puff piece on unemployment. who'da thunk it?

[sandnsea]

4. Even I have to say that makes zero sense

You can't just whack off half the population, especially the adult male half, and say "problem solved". Women with children can get some assistance while they do something new after a job disappears. Men are just stuck out there trying to figure out how to support themselves and pay child support obligations at the same time. This is just another example of these economic idiots who have no clue what their calculations mean in the real world.

I bet he said the real estate market was accurately priced because of the Bush tax cuts too.

[FarCenter]

7. Men just have to find a good woman to support them

[Berry Cool]

12. Got news for you. Women WITHOUT children can't get any assistance.

We're stuck out here trying to figure out how to support ourselves.

Oh, and I have two college degrees and I'm still unemployed after seven months.

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

17. just curious, what your degrees are in

[sandnsea]

20. Did I say otherwise?

I was merely pointing out the most obvious disconnects in the OP. Clearly they aren't the only ones. It's a stupid OP all the way around.

[Tailormyst]

33. and women with children can only get help for 2 years

except for food stamps and medical.

[tonysam]

36. Try two years with me, and nothing in sight. n/t

[laughingliberal]

27. Just as soon as they can drive home the point that the 1/2 the population they have whacked off are

degenerated and undeserving this will make perfect sense and our problems will be over. Long live America!

Men and older women are screwed.

[HeresyLives]

5. Yes, it's a new kind of economy, & employment.

While the employment rate for those with no high school diploma is 16%... the jobless rate for those with college degrees is only 4.5%.

[girl gone mad]

56. lol.. lots of degreed people flipping burgers and pulling espresso...

in the brave new economy. The dropouts are probably doing marginally better in the underground economy.

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

8. i hope you don't take that bad attitude with you to the job interview

i found the link to be generally accurate and fits with what I have watched on Blomberg lately. I turned down several jobs since the first of the year.

[sandnsea]

10. So, because you have a job

means there's no unemployment problem?

There are always a number of jobs in certain specialized fields. That has nothing to do with the overall unemployment rate or job picture.

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

15. no but it means that - unemployed need to make themselves more employable

go back to school, or find some other way to get and use the skills you want a potential employer to see in you.

[sandnsea]

21. And if they are still paying old student loans?

From when they tried to make themselves employable in the past? You do know people went to school to learn construction, or any other number of housing trades, or real estate, or banking, right?

Are you familiar with the term empathy?

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

24. yes, I have heard the term empathy before

have you heard of the growing field of eldercare?
in most areas of the country a CNA will get you started.
The job is not great but larger employers will help with education beyond that to become LPN and RN.

[tonysam]

37. Few people can stand that type of work

Heavy lifting, lousy hours, exposure to sickness and death, rotten pay.

Shove that suggestion.

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

46. better then nothing, hospice care can be emotional rewarding

Once you look past the looming death, spending a little time to learn from people who have lived interesting lives, in prior tough times was very interesting. To relieve some of the embarrassment of having to be cleaned up after crapping their pants I would ask them questions about their past and listen intently as they told me parts of their history.
And the lousy hours just happen to fit around school schedule.

[sandnsea]

51. My daughter did it for several years

While she was going to school to get her nursing degree. Lack of local options for nursing school is what caused her problems. As long as someone can lift, which I can't, there's nothing wrong with caring for the elderly.

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

53. my original response was to the people who just wanted to rant

having a bad back does limit available choices
the point I was trying to get across is the government is not going to rescue us.
The chances of major public works programs is slim to none.
Most people my age and younger will not be able to retire in our 60's.
So how do you, me and all the rest make the best of this time.
smoke some medicinal and get over the anger?

I am working, but not because I am lucky, but because when it happened to me, I made a new plan for how I was going to get Thur life, and it worked out.

So my advice would be do everything you need to do to keep that unemployment check coming.
Then make a plan to move forward, for most people that is further education.
Can your Hobie produce "off the books" supplemental income.

[sandnsea]

54. But that doesn't change the number of unemployed

Or mean that average people should be saying - whoopdedoo - there's no unemployment problem as long as the elite have a job!!

Yes people may have to make changes. OTOH, my daughter's ex has worked in construction right through this whole mess. He makes half of what he did, but that's still better than a teacher makes. Just because he has a job doesn't mean construction is the place to be. And just because your education plan worked out for you, doesn't mean it will work out for everybody.

And, there are a number of public works projects that were funded in the stimulus. Some of them provide training in green energy. So in that sense, yes, people have to do something besides smoke the medicinal.

But then most of us 50 and under have been doing that every 10 years since we graduated high school.

[Taitertots]

22. That is not a realistic solution

How is a process which takes years (back to school) going to help people who are out of work right now?

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

26. no, it is not perfect but, what else are you going to do ?

massive public works programs like the 1930 are not going to happen without a 70/30 lead in the Senate.

[Taitertots]

34. It won't help people

What are they supposed to do for the several years it will take to get a degree? They will remain out of work, become saddled in debt, and they will have to try to find work that accommodates their school schedule.


We need to elect a third party to get massive public works programs.

[tonysam]

38. Your suggestion is USELESS

People in their fifties going into debt to "retrain" for jobs that likely don't exist when they graduate?

Spare us, please, the nonsense.

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

43. well then, i guess you will never work again.

[laughingliberal]

30. It's not. Just another inane answer from someone not faced with the problem. nt

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

35. worked for me

I cleaned poop of old people in the evening,
shoveled shit, milked cows, and the worst job of all was driving school bus. actually quit the bus and went back to shoveling shit.
that's how I paid for getting my degree.

[tonysam]

39. And how old are you? Not very I would guess.

There aren't jobs to be had.

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

48. 40's

[Taitertots]

45. Your advice for them is to get a job? n/t

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

47. more like find away to stay alive, and work for a better future

the recovery is expected to be a long drawn out process that will take years, so if you find yourself with time figure out what you want to do and get started. because the old career may never come back

[Taitertots]

52. There are not jobs available for them

"find away to stay alive, and work for a better future" Is at it's base a euphemism for "get a job". There are no jobs. If there were there would not be an unemployment problem. Just suggesting they get jobs doesn't help anyone.


Being without a job for several years isn't an actionable plan for the unemployed.

[girl gone mad]

57. newsflash:

a decade of continuing job losses does not constitute a "recovery".

[laughingliberal]

55. I worked during nursing school but it's a little harder in your 50's

as many of the unemployed are.

[laughingliberal]

29. Problem? What problem? I'm fine.

:sarcasm:

[gkhouston]

42. Wow, I had no idea that pizza tasters were in such high demand.

Never had much use for 'em, myself.

[Hannah Bell]

9. UE for no HS degree = 15.6. UE for college degree = 5.0.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm


1,795,000 people with no HS degree unemployed.

2,276,000 people with college degree or higher unemployed.

By BLS definitions.

[sendero]

13. LOL.

.... someone should put down the crack pipe.

[omega minimo]

14. "the kind of worker who lost their manufacturing jobs to China"="those with no high school diploma"

mindboggling bullshit propaganda

[SmileyRose]

16. The mad hedge fund trader is an idiot.

Only 27% of American workers have college degrees but he's claiming 60% of the unemployed are college graduates getting re-hired quickly? And all of the long term unemployed never got a HS diploma?

That doesn't even make sense.

[Better Believe It]

18. The Wall Street bankers kept their jobs! What more could one want?

Capitalism works!

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

31. if this was China they would have been shot, but only the working

class needs to compete with China.
Sucks to be us, but short of revolution what are we going to do?
I do not see liberals protesting just Tea Party types.
time to get LOUD ?

[laughingliberal]

32. I believe that's the point of the story. nt

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

19. The "Catch-22" Recovery. Work for less, or don't work. The capitalists' wet dream.

[Double T]

23. What a bunch or ridiculous nonsense.

Look around at the empty offices and empty buildings that housed companies that are now out of business or been outsourced to slave wage countries This post sounds like something cnbc would try and float for the RW wall street conservatives that have destroyed our country and economy; sorry, it is pure crap. I forgot this is an election year where this kind of massive BS abounds. GD I hate BS.

[undeterred]

25. PNAC: Pulled Numbers from Ass Crack

[MadHound]

28. Hate to tell you this, but we need an economy that employs all kinds of labor,

Both intellectual and manual, highly skilled and grunt. Why? Because not everybody is fit or suitable for a single type of labor.

If we have an economy that is only suited for one type of labor, then we have a faulty economy and will continue to suffer the effects of that faulty economy no matter where we are on the "value chain."

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

40. Things no "one seems to see" are sometimes not there. n/t

[RainDog]

44. oh bullshit

the school system in my town just laid off EVERY SINGLE LIBRARIAN in the local schools - except for 2 high school librarians.

I have been applying for jobs and I am not in labor and hiring is FROZEN. I have applied all over the country and things have gotten so much worse that universities, etc. are not filling the positions they previously advertised.

when people in education and public sector jobs are laid off, that "creative destruction" bullshit stinks more than ever.

take the turbocharger and stick it up your ass, financial sector fuckers.

[Mike 03]

49. You are completely right, Unemployment is a Lagging Indicator.

The moves in Employment and Manufacturing, as well as Home Prices in some previously awful markets suggest that Obama's stimulus is bringing us back from a near cataclysm.