New Polling out for New Hampshire Senate Race

[WI_DEM]

to replace Judd Gregg:

The last time Research 2000 polled New Hampshire for Daily Kos was in July. Since then, the Republican field has changed: Last time, we polled former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and former Representative Charlie Bass. Now, Bass is trying to regain his old House seat in NH-02, but Ayotte has picked up some new competition. (That's why you'll only see trendlines for her against Hodes, and none in the Republican primary numbers.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/1-3. Likely voters. MoE (for primary) 5%.

Kelly Ayotte 36%
Ovide Lamontagne 27%
William Binnie 4%



This primary is competitive, despite Ayotte's attempts to demonstrate otherwise. Ayotte's anointment as the establishment pick hasn't gone over well with everyone, and the fact that she tried from the outset to position herself for a general election has made her vulnerable to tea-scented opposition. Lamontagne has been dubbed the "only true conservative" in the race by Laura Ingraham.

The outcome of the primary is significant for the general election:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4%. (7/13-15 results)

Kelly Ayotte (R) 46% (39)
Paul Hodes (D) 39% (38)

Ovide Lamontagne (R) 36%
Paul Hodes (D) 46%

William Binnie (R) 35%
Paul Hodes (D) 45%

www.dailykos.com

[WI_DEM]

1. I truly think Hodge represents the Dems best shot of picking up a senate seat from GOP this year

and hopefully a tough primary fight on the GOP side will help.

[WCGreen]

2. I thought we had a chance here in Ohio but it is looking bleak...

[WI_DEM]

3. It will be tough in Ohio with the high unemployment rate. But if things improve by November

you never know.

[WCGreen]

4. But we have an 800 lb gorilla in our midst.

Lee Fisher has always sucked the air out of everything he is involved with. He has jeopradized Stricklands chances by making Cuyahoga County all about Lee...

[WI_DEM]

5. I've heard Fisher isn't much of a campaigner. Hopefully your governor will be re-elected.

[bobburgster]

6. Interesting results...

the only campaign commercials I have seen are for Binnie....quite a few too. Lamontagne has the teabaggers, and not much more. Binnie in my opinion will be the toughest battle for Hodes, who in my opinion, needs to kick it into gear soon. I think Hodes can be knocked off if he is not reallt agrsive early.