The good news in the Labor Report

[AllentownJake]

There is one bright spot in the Unemployment report, and instead of arguing over whether they cooked the books by turning suffering people into not in the labor force to make themselves look better (they did)

Those who are arguing over the not in labor force number are being foolish. The administration cooked the books there. You should probably focus on this item in the report in your defense of the administration.

The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell from 9.2 to 8.3 million
in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had
been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See
table A-8.)

People who have had their hours cut, will return to work before new people are hired. That is a good sign. A large portion of that 9.2 million will return to full time hours before there is a real dip in unemployment. With the caveat the people who are in a dying industry are more likely to get laid off than to return to full time hours, but that should be a minority of the 9.2 million.

The administration would be better off served not trying to play games with statistics and report facts. They have good news to report, of course, playing games with the U3 number is what they tried and they will face a credibility problem for it.


Come on people, read reports and use your critical thinking skills.

[WCGreen]

1. This is why the productivity increased as reported earlier this week...

Not because of the greed so many here were quick to point out...

[AllentownJake]

3. Not really

There really was only a slight uptick in wage data. Supply and Demand, when you have a very large populace that is underemployed or unemployed you can afford to pay them less than what you did 3 years ago.

[WCGreen]

6. The increase in productivity was a slight uptick as well..

To have each increase in a monthly reporting cycle is pretty good evidence that they are related...

[AllentownJake]

8. Productivity and wages don't have a direct correlation

You can have productivity gains and wages decrease and productivity losses and wages increase. The stats are unrelated.

[WCGreen]

16. Of course you can but when they come out in the same month,

there is a correlation...

If people are working more hours and are producing more per worker, I see that as joined at the hip...

Productivity is, after all "the ratio of the quantity and quality of units produced to the labor per unit of time" and since quality is not measured in short term analysis, there seems to be a direct correlation, well at least to me...

[AllentownJake]

17. You left out cost in the equation

The amount of output per unit of input (labor, equipment, and capital). There are many different ways of measuring productivity. For example, in a factory productivity might be measured based on the number of hours it takes to produce a good, while in the service sector productivity might be measured based on the revenue generated by an employee divided by his/her salary.

[FreakinDJ]

2. I've been working full time right up until this year

Had 1 week off and now the next couple 2 - 3 months looks busy. Last year was my Best Year Ever!

But after the next 2 - 3 months it is a Black Hole and I don't expect to survive the job cuts

[Political Heretic]

4. How much control does the admnistration have over the way U3 is calculated?

I agree with you on all of this.

It's one of those things where, all one has to do is read this mornings report. This is one some philosophical debate where no one can be right. All of the information is right there, including the massive shift of unemployed workers into a classification that erases them from being counted in the unemployment number.

It's not a mystery.

But its also been a problem for a long time

[AllentownJake]

5. The BLS is part of the executive branch

Therefore, the administration has significant control over the statistics.

[Oregone]

9. It shouldn't be

Too bad its not some independent commission full of nerdy economists and mathematicians who are too ugly to get laid, much less have any future in politics (even as advisors).

[Political Heretic]

13. If those are the qualifications, i'm polishing my resume.

I'm weak on the math and economics but I think I make up for it in other areas.

:)

[Oregone]

19. lol

[Johonny]

7. Not sure it's a problem

I thought there was a pretty good discussion on all the economic numbers on Stephenie Miller this morning (without any fart noises too). I think you can intelligently read their numbers without complaining about cooked books and reading ulterior motives.

[AllentownJake]

10. Generally speaking

When you are producing your own numbers from which the media will judge you, there is always a problem and it doesn't matter which political party has the reigns of power.

[Political Heretic]

11. That's exactly right.

[laughingliberal]

20. Now, now, Jake. You were absent from the reeducation class, I think

If a D does it that means it's OK. Never mind we were all livid when Bush made the change to how unemployment is calculate. It is now A-OK. Now, should a Republican get in, it will then be wrong again.

[AllentownJake]

21. I was there for the class

I just got thrown out for hurling spit wads at the teacher.

[laughingliberal]

22. I should have known

A trouble maker from the get go. ;-)

[Name removed]

12. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[elleng]

14. This type of 'cooking the books' has been standard procedure

for accumulating labor data forever, inaccurate as it appears.

[AllentownJake]

15. The people in the administration know the reality behind the numbers

Their spin on these numbers is ridiculous.

[laughingliberal]

18. Not forever. Started in the last administration

I well remember the outcry when the decision was made to quit counting those who had given up on looking for work. But no outcry anymore. Our president is in the White House.

[AllentownJake]

23. All right

I'll see you all in a few weeks. The flame wars with some of my former fan club members are not my idea of fun.

[Goldstein1984]

24. In an economy with a GDP that was based 70% on consumption

we should expect the books to be cooked in whatever fashion makes people feel good. Ignoring real unemployment is good. Fantasizing that the stock market reflects an upturn for Main Street is another.

My son is now employed again, making a fraction of what he was making before, but very productive.

Compared to his previous job, he's:

Working more hours than he did before, and
Therefore machining more parts than he did before.

But he's taking home less money than he did before, and
Putting less back into the economy than he did before.

My gut tells me that this situation is a microcosm of what's happening all over the U.S., and that it signals another step in our economy and culture's convergence with developing nations.

Our wealthy and our peasant classes will, over time, look more and more like a model for a banana republic.

[AllentownJake]

25. Doubtful

I doubt Americans will put up with it for that long.

[Goldstein1984]

26. I hope you are correct

I think there are a lot of people like me: already checked out of the system; ready for RADICAL change; doing everything in their power, and looking for more ways, to threaten the foundation of a corrupt system; only waiting for the critical mass and a person in a position of leadership who is willing to stick their neck out and coax the sheople from their flocks to form packs and become predators.

"Was that over the top? I can never tell!" (Jim Carey in "Batman Forever")