I encourage everyone to actually read the BLS report

[AllentownJake]

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Than form your own opinions based on the critical thinking skills God, whatever deity you believe in, or if you are and atheist your mother and father gave you.

[MannyGoldstein]

1. +1. Original source material is always best.

What's your take on it, Jake?

Looks to me like we basically lost jobs, and the jobs that are growing are in temporary services and sales.

This note has me a a bit thoughtful:

----------------------------------------------------------------
| |
| Changes to The Employment Situation Text, Tables, and Data |
| |
| Several changes to The Employment Situation news release text |
| and tables are being introduced with this release. In addi- |
| tion, establishment survey data have been revised as a result |
| of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of sea- |
| sonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for Jan-|
| uary 2010 reflect updated population estimates. See the notes |
| at the end of the text for more information about all of |
| these changes. |
| |
----------------------------------------------------------------

[AllentownJake]

2. One bright spot

Some outright lies that will be revised to reality over the next month and playing games with statistics.

The bright spot was the part-time employment

The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell from 9.2 to 8.3 million
in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had
been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See
table A-8.)

Unless of course this is an outright falsehood that will be revised in the next few weeks. It really should be what everyone is focusing on as people who have had their hours cut will be restored to full time before a company hires.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. It's a weird one alright...

This would be a good news report if this were the October report with an election coming right after it.

But since there isn't an election next week the real headline is "Impetus for government action on unemployment reduced by news there are fewer jobs."

I am pleasantly surprised by January payroll at -20,000. I was expecting something like 80-120. There are always discrepancies between payroll numbers and the household survey but this is rather extreme. But there are arguments to be made that the household survey offers a broader picture.

If the top-line number can make a large downward move with fewer payroll jobs then either a lot of workers became so discouraged they actually died or the methodological problems in the numbers are getting out of hand.

But continuity is vital in these data series. The method isn't perfect but it is what it is and in that sense the top-line number must be given its due as good news. (?)

I haven't been surprised on the downside much lately but the revisions were worse than I expected. 400K worse than I was expecting as recently as yesterday.

With 8.4 million jobs in the hole any reduction in perception of the problem is politically terrible because politics isn't a game divorcable from policy or the real world.

In case there are any persuadable thinkers reading this, here is the logic of the situation:

The employment situation on election day will not be affected by the top-line number in the January BLS Report.

The employment situation on election day will, however, be affected by government policy. And the effect (if any) of the January BLS Report on policy will be negative for the employment situation on election day.

A Potemkin labor report on top of a Potemkin GDP report is not the path to sound policy choices or to electoral success.

[AllentownJake]

4. There is a game that has been being played since this summer

Put out rosy reports that seem too good to be true, let the talking heads scream recovery, and than revise the numbers down to reality.

The lies have been getting more brazen everyday. The weekly job reports don't match up with this report well and the "not in labor force category" is increasing every report.

The only positive thing I read in the report was the part-time workers becoming full-time workers. However, with the game being played, I wouldn't be shocked for that incredible number to be halved after the real report is issued in a month.