Scientists Saw Haiti Quake Coming

[Control-Z]

'U.S. scientists warned back in 2008 that Port-au-Prince was ripe for a catastrophic earthquake, but they had no way of predicting exactly when. Advances are being made, but that kind of precision is still far in the future, reports CBS News Correspondent Ben Tracy.'

snip

'For decades, scientists have been focusing on long-term forecasts, successfully measuring the probability that certain fault lines around the world will erupt. California could be next. It's been 300 years since a major quake rocked the southern portion of the San Andreas Fault near Los Angeles.'

'Scientists here believe there's a 99.7 percent chance that a 6.7 or greater earthquake could hit southern California in the next 30 years, but knowing when is the big question.'

snip

'"It's really not the earthquake that's killing the people, it's the buildings that fail down on people, that cause most of the casualties," Jordan said.'

more:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/16/eveningnews/main6105412.shtml


I can't help but wonder how our (So Cal) buildings would hold up in a quake similar to the one in Haiti.

[timeforpeace]

1. "Yeah, that's the ticket. We knew it all along. We got mad skillz."

[DesertFlower]

2. let's hope So Cal doesn't have one. nt

[MineralMan]

3. Southern California has one like that every couple of decades or so.

It survives them pretty well, in general, although there is often property damage. My brother lost a house to the Northridge quake when it shifted off its foundation. Not many buildings collapse, though, in California in that size of quake. It's the 8.0 and higher quakes that are likely to cause a major catastrophe in California.

[damntexdem]

10. But it doesn't have such shallow quakes -- nor is it apparently subject to them.

And So Cal WILL have a much bigger quake -- as noted in the article, it's only a matter of when.

[MineralMan]

22. Actually. you are incorrect. Many California earthquakes are even

shallower than the Port au Prince earthquake. Like that one, California faults are mostly thrust faults, which commonly have shallow epicenters.

You're welcome to go to the USGS site and compare earthquake depths to the one in Haiti.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

The Haiti quake was at a depth of 10 km. Most California quakes are at that depth or even shallower, as you will see if you look at the tables at the link.

[murielm99]

11. Are the people in California, in the fault area

able to get earthquake insurance? Did your brother get his home paid for, or did he get any compensation for the quake damage?

I live in the Midwest. We don't face this. I do live in the New Madrid area, that they say is also overdue for an earthquake. Of course, I don't live in daily fear of it. We have tornadoes. People take the usual precautions, if they have any sense.

My brother lives in San Francisco. I have never asked him about insurance issues.

[MineralMan]

19. My brother did not have earthquake insurance, although it was

available to him. I believe he built his new house with a federally-insured loan, but I'm not positive.

I'm not sure what the cost of earthquake insurance would be in the New Madrid area, but I'm sure it's available. Whether you buy it or not should depend on the type of construction of your home, I'd think. You could get an evaluation of the risk from an engineering inspector.

[Control-Z]

15. I've kind of rested on that idea too.

A big quake hits every decade or so. But this article kind of upsets that thinking.

'It's been 300 years since a major quake rocked the southern portion of the San Andreas Fault near Los Angeles.

These quakes we experience every decade are not big ones??? Or THE big one? :scared:

[MineralMan]

5. Here's a list of historic large California quakes, with

damage and casualty information:

http://www.consrv.ca.gov/index/Earthquakes/Pages/qh_earthquakes_calbigones.aspx

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

17. So Cal will have one. Very soon ...

or very soon in geologic time.

Also, Vesuvius will erupt. So will Yellowstone. My predictions. Gratis.

Predicting in 2008 that a quake will hit Haiti "soon" doesn't help when they have no money (or political will) to update existing buildings with technology to help survive the quake. Interesting, but hardly useful.

:hi:

[abelenkpe]

4. If northridge is any indication

then they will hold up reasonably well. We were going to Cal Arts when Northridge quake happened living in a modern apartment complex in Santa Clarita. The school was built on rollers to withstand a quake and the apartment building was steal reinforced. Ironically, the school was a disaster and the apartments condemned, but everyone survived. (Except my cat.) I think that's what's important. Yes there was damage but not much death associated with that quake. The school re-opened in time for the next school year, the apartment buildings were rebuilt, the highways rebuilt in record time too. FEMA did an excellent job of helping out.

We currently live in a wood frame building built in the 30s on bedrock. It's clearly survived many quakes. I think living in So Cal it's important to be on bedrock and to know the history of the building you live in. The structures here are built with earthquakes in mind. I would be much more concerned about a quake hitting the east coast where nothing is built with earthquakes in mind. The damage would be devastating.

Haiti hadn't had a quake in over 200 years yes? If so, then it's understandable why no one built structures with that concern. They were probably much more used to building things to withstand hurricanes.

Big quakes in SoCal tend to happen every twenty years, so San Fran is a bit overdue (last one 87, wasn't it?) and SoCal not until 14.
But it is always important to be prepared. So make sure you have a plan ready and supplies always.

[abelenkpe]

8. O and earthquake proof your furniture

and electronics. Our TV jumped eight feet and landed in our bed. Grand pianos were found in the school the next morning upside down...they were throw into the air, flipped and landed upside down. Scary!

[dtotire]

6. A Geologist From Cuba Warned a Year Ago

That the Haiti Fault was overdue for a rupture.

[liberal N proud]

7. It is always easy to say we saw this coming after the event.

Even if you could predict these things, what would you do with all the people? Tell 2 million people that their town is going to crumble around them on xx date.

Only the Revelation crowd would believe you then they would want to be right there so they can go with the end of time.

[Control-Z]

23. I think it is more of a warning

to folks who live in quake prone areas. I'm in So Cal. It is way past time I replenish/replace my quake supplies. I know many items are past their expiration. I'm rethinking my entire emergency plans - and the amount and variety of supplies I should stock.

[liberal N proud]

26. What do you pack in a quake supply kit?

I would suspect many the same things you put in a hurricane kit. The only problem with the quake kit is: one, you have no warning; two, your kit could very well be buried in the rubble.

Not ever living in a quake zone, I guess I never realized.

[FirstLight]

9. I have been thinking the Bay Area was ripe for years...

after living thru the Loma Priets I remember looking at the statistics for Hayward Fault & San Andreas. How often an earthquake on one caused one on the next between 12-20 years...

yikes, that's pretty close, huh?

Loma Prieta was downgraded after the fact to a 6.9 I think,and it was still pretty terrifying even being in Hayward many miles away. That was on the san andreas, and the Hayward fault runs through the east bay, which has had more urban sprawl and rapid construction in the past 20 years as well. Ya, I wonder how well that area will fare in the next few years too. :scared:

Living up in the sierra, we sure feel the effects too...
after the Tsunami in Banda Aceh, etc.. some of our local forest service geologists looked at the west shore of Lake Tahoe and found evidence of a floodplain, perhaps even a 1000 yr old tsunami from the lake that had scarred the land. That's pretty wild, and I live near the shore too...

[uppityperson]

12. Here is my scientific prediction: There are going to be HUGE earthquakes many places sometime

There will also be floods, famine, drought, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions at different places sometime.

Prepare as best you can because it may take a while to get help to wherever you are.

[HeresyLives]

13. Scientists warned the Haiti govt, but there was little

the govt could do to prepare for it.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Science/2010/01/15/12474891-ap.html

[Common Sense Party]

14. LIHOP.

[Ian David]

18. Not LIHOP. LIHBNCBDIT.

Let It Happen Because Nothing Could Be Done In Time.

If only there were SOME country that hadn't spent itself into oblivion fighting two unnecessary wars based on lies that made us less safe, who COULD have helped before all this happened...

[Common Sense Party]

20. We wouldn't have helped even without the two wars.

And we've been spending ourselves into oblivion for decades.

[hileeopnyn8d]

21. I don't think it would have changed anything

Reports and studies done throughout the midwest have shown that we're (I'm in St. Louis now) woefully unprepared for an earthquake of the magnitude they once anticipated from the New Madrid fault.

I say once anticipated, because now they're saying they think the New Madrid fault system may be shutting down.

[Ian David]

16. We also think Yellowstone National Park will eventually become a Super Volcano...

... endangering all life on Earth.

[ddeclue]

24. Not a very useful prediction if it's "sometime in the next 30 years"..

Given that length of time, just about any prediction you make is likely to come true at least once.

[Control-Z]

25. Actually, it is, if you live in So Cal, imo.

We expect big ones every 10 years. We're due for one any time, but from the information in this article it sounds like we're in for a bigger one than expected. Seeing the destruction in Haiti has opened my eyes to a lot of ways I could be more prepared for the next one.