What would have happened if Obama had announced an immediate withdrawal?

[Phoonzang]

This is not a trick question. I'm not making some kind of statement here. I'm genuinely interested in what people think the impact both domestically and internationally would have been if an immediate withdrawal were ordered. What would the political fallout have been? What would happen in 2010 and 2012? I personally have no idea.

THINK before you answer. I know it's probably impossible to get on this website, but I'd like an objective, reasoned analysis. Not "The FucCKing corporatisT FascstTS woudl have been fucKED bLARRRR!!!!" You know...the usual. :P

[Dawgs]

1. It would have been ignored on DU, and he would be attacked for something else.

:hi:

[Phoonzang]

5. Lol....well that's almost certain. nt

[timeforpeace]

43. No, he would have been praised by the left, criticized initially by the right but eventually lauded

by history. It would have been a courageous, presidential-like leadership thingie to do.

[NJmaverick]

14. DAMN! How did I miss that aspect

[berni_mccoy]

17. Truth.

[MineralMan]

20. Absolutely. You'd see posts that read:

I hate Obama. He can get us out of a war, but he can't give us .

[BzaDem]

28. DING DING DING. We have a winner!

Very nicely put.

[treestar]

34. Right! It would have been: Yeah he ended the war, but what are all those

unemployed soldiers going to do, compete for jobs at home and drive up the already soaring unemployment rate!

[Bluerthanblue]

2. this is a very good question-

I don't have an answer, but I'm looking forward to hearing the replies.

:hi:

[FormerDittoHead]

3. Look what happened to JFK. Obama got his 'warning' with the gate crashers...

Just echoing a thought I had the other day...

[MNDemNY]

6. ..

:tinfoilhat:

[FormerDittoHead]

57. I know, I was just thinking out loud. I honestly don't believe that, however. n/t

[ecstatic]

49. Interesting. I wonder if the Salehis know Cheney... nt

[anonymous171]

50. Obama has been for escalation from day 1. He has dug his own grave. nt

[joecool65]

4. First off, the Taliban...

...would go back to being a bunch of total thugs without knowing our military could crush them, forcing any and all women in any area they have slight control of to wear burquas whether they want to or not, then executing women in the back of the head with an AK-47, as well as torturing and hanging men who resist them in the slightest.

Then, people on this board would start bemoaning the plight of Afghan women and those people in general and asking if anything could be done to help them.

[jpak]

8. beat me to it

Once a whiner, always a whiner.

The Taliban suck - but don't tell that to the anti-Obama crowd.

Obama is worse thatn Bush ya know!

[NJmaverick]

15. I missed that part of it as well

[Astrad]

23. Well that would be compelling if it were true

but it's not.

Public space “shrinking” for Afghan women - UN official

http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/2009/12/02/public-space-shrinking-for-women-un-official.html

'Worse than the Taliban' - new law rolls back rights for Afghan women

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/31/hamid-karzai-afghanistan-law

[smirkymonkey]

42. I know this is kind of a dumb question, but how is the Taliban

funded? The Saudis? Drug money? Does anyone know the major source of their revenue? Seems to me the key to ending terrorist regimes is to dry up the source of their funding (not sure where it comes from, so I don't know if it's possible.)

[14thColony]

53. The opium trade

Afghanistan has virtually taken over the world market for opium paste. Most estimates put their share of the market at around 90%, which basically means they own the whole market. Some areas of Afghanistan have now diversified into marijuana growing as well. The growers are often victims themselves, in fact many don't get a choice in what they grow.

[eomer]

44. Can the Afghan women expect the same kind of liberation we delivered in Iraq?

All it takes is 100,000 troops on the ground and all that bad stuff stops, as if by magic! :sarcasm:

[anonymous171]

48. Who cares? I don't. nt

[rd_kent]

51. So what?

It is not our job as a country to force other countries to live by our standards. Thats not the reason we went there in the first place and its not a reason to stay.

[Echo In Light]

7. Domestically, the Left, and likely more than half the country, would've heaped big praise on him

You have two threads on this, btw

[Phoonzang]

16. Whoops. Thanks for the warning. nt

[phantom power]

9. It would be a good thing for the 2010 and 2012 elections...

It would establish some rapport with his base. It would stop some of our debt bleed-out.

Afghanistan itself would probably begin reverting to its pre-invasion state. (which I consider to be inevitable regardless of when we leave)

We would have to adopt an international law-enforcement/intelligence model of terrorist prevention. Which I think was always the right way to do it.

The conservatives/GOP would go completely ape-shit. Of course, their goal is to obstruct and defeat all Democrats under any circumstances, and so the practical change would be not very much.

Obama and the Dems would be forced to really make their case to the public, to defend against GOP hawk demagogues. Or else suffer the consequences of having their actions framed by the GOP. But again, this is always true (and the Dems have failed miserably at it in recent history).

[Echo In Light]

22. It would have helped to sink another nail into the RW's coffin, and they know it

People en masse would have supported the decision for immediate withdrawal, and the repubs were already in big trouble so far as their image, and a sham rep democracy can't work unless it creates a divide & rule within the preferred framework - what they don't want is all of the focus/support on the Dem party, which will force a split therein among Lefties and Mods

[Ready4Change]

10. Repubs would attack him. Taliban would retake Afghanistan.

The Republicans will attack him no matter what choice he made. There is no win for him there.

Despite being hit hard years ago, our shift of focus to Iraq has allowed the Taliban to regain a foothold in Afghanistan. The current government there is not well respected at this point, so if we withdraw it will be quickly displaced by the Taliban.

[rd_kent]

52. So what?

Its not out job as a country to force other countries to live by our standards. That not why we went there in the first place and its not a reason to stay.

[boston bean]

11. many people on DU would be very upset demanding he escalate war???? nt

[tekisui]

25. Nah, they follow the President whether right or wrong.

They would have sheered it as a genius decision. Many of them don't know what they think until they are told.

[freddie mertz]

38. That is for sure.

The order-taking contingent.

[treestar]

41. Of course they would have

It is not a black and white choice. No one here cheers the war. They just don't slam Obama for doing what he is doing. They understand it to a degree.

There would be no inconsistency in supporting his ending the war either. Only the freeps would condemn that.

[NJmaverick]

12. Well first off he would have been roasted by the media and the GOP for breaking his promise

Sadly it would have been impossible to defend that move. After all you can't state that Afghanistan is critical to our national security and then advocate an immediate retreat/surrender.

The Afghan government would fall shortly after the US pulled out and Taliban would have returned and flush with victory they would have invited Al Qaeda back.


The deficit would improve with out the cost of the Afghan conflict.

Counter Terrorism costs would increase with the resurgence of Al Qaeda


How the elections would go, would be dependent on a terror attack happening.

Any terror attack would be blamed on the withdrawl and the Dems would lose Congress and the White House.

The Country would pretty much be doomed at that point with the nut jobs of the GOP running our nation.

If a terror attack didn't happen, Congress would live or die on the economy as would Obama.

[Thickasabrick]

13. Dancing in the fucking streets. nt

[Richardo]

18. "The FucCKing corporatisT FascstTS woudl have been fucKED bLARRRR!!!!"

:D

My prediction:

-Domestic
--Politically:
---RW dusts off the 'cut and run' mantra, invokes hightened security risk of terrorist attacks from Afghani safe haven, "Obama lost Afghanistan", "cannot be trusted", "need a manly GOP man (or woman) to deal with the terrorists" etc etc.
---LW, never satisfied, bemoans that withdrawal will take 18-24 months, refuses to even accept this timetable as 'withdrawal' (See: Iraq)

--Economically:
---Deficit reduction from reduced operational expenses, but capital investment needed to re-equip and replace equipment damaged and lost in Iraq and Afghanistan stretches for a decade (this part will happen regardless)
---Job creation from above re-equip programs
---Reduction in VA cost exposure to care for even more wounded vets.
---Military gets a chance to refit and recruit

-Internationally:
--Afghanistan reverts to Taliban rule and/or regional warlords OR China steps in to sponsor. Western containment strategy.
--Pakistan backs off its pursuit of AQ in its territory
--Iran comes under more pressure from a less-distracted West
--Heightened UN/NATO overflights monitoring of activity in Afghanistan, occasional cruise missile attacks (see: 1990s Iraq)

[Robb]

27. Best answers in the thread, IMO.

Nice work. I only wonder if the job creation from the re-equip programs would be significant or a blip.

[Richardo]

29. Thanks, Robb. As for job creation? I think blip.

The contractors already doing this work may have to staff up, but I bet it'll be mostly recalling laid-off workers. It's just more job security since it's going to take so long.

:hi:

[Bunny]

46. Excellent response, Richardo.

Thanks for taking the time to respond. :thumbsup:

[Blue_In_AK]

56. Exactly!

Nations closer to the region, both geographically and culturally, need to pick up the slack. If al Qaeda/Taliban/whatever are such a threat, many other nations in the region should be concerned enough to help out with peace-keeping. When we stay in that part of the world, we put a target on our backs. We are the "other." We need to get out of there.

[FarLeftFist]

19. He would be seen as a weak bleeding heart liberal by the MSM

And all the RW blogs would say how much he hates America and is a Muslim sympathizer who is trying to destroy America from the inside.

[QC]

21. The same people now praising his escalation as the most brilliantest thing ever

would be just as loudly praising the withdrawal as the most brilliantest thing ever.

That's what would happen here on DU, anyway.

As for Afghanistan, it seems likely that Karzai would fall, because he has only a tenuous grasp on power anyway. The Taliban would probably retake power, with all the oppression that entailed last time they were in charge.

Very ugly stuff would happen, in other words. But I think those ugly things will probably happen no matter how many more of our troops we throw into the meat grinder. There is probably no way to "win" in Afghanistan.

[VMI Dem]

30. Heh.

+1

[QC]

31. Thanks!

But this is a case where I would love to be wrong.

[NJmaverick]

35. For the sake of honesty, can you clarify?

which DUer ever said- "most brilliantest thing ever"???



FACTS MATTER


8. When addressing an argument, do not misrepresent it. A common tactic of the intellectually dishonest is to portray their opponent’s argument in straw man terms. In politics, this is called spin. Typically, such tactics eschew quoting the person in context, but instead rely heavily on out-of-context quotes, paraphrasing and impression. When addressing an argument, one should shows signs of having made a serious effort to first understand the argument and then accurately represent it in its strongest form.

[JVS]

24. A long chapter of Bush stupidity would have come to an end

and BTW: The FucCKing corporatisT FascstTS woudl have been fucKED bLARRRR!!!!

[Romulox]

26. Stock market rally, President's approval + 10 %, huge amount of political capital gained nt

[NJmaverick]

37. Why do you believe this would happen?

[Echo In Light]

32. Bump

[Phoonzang]

33. Interesting replies so far....

I still have no opinion. :-)

[freddie mertz]

36. I for one would applaud the decision. nt.

[kenny blankenship]

39. He wouldn't have lost his base.

He would be attacked from the right of course. So what? They lost the works over the past two elections; and despite all his bowing in their direction they never stop attacking him anyway. But if he didn't have the courage required for the job he shouldn't have applied for it.

That help?

[autorank]

40. k*r # 5

[Cybergata]

45. I would come to believe Obama was not only . . .

one of the best Presidents in history but the bravest of all of them. I really thought that he might have changed his mind since the campaign, but unfortunately he didn't. I admire the man, but not his decision about this war. This war is wrong on so many levels.

[ipaint]

47. Since we are not leaving the area

even when the real withdrawal of actual troops takes place there probably would have been an uptick in for profit private corp. participation in the occupation. Too much military expansion/construction of bases etc. in both iraq and afghanistan to ever leave.

Combat troops may eventually be pulled back but we are parking ourselves in afghanistan, the whole middle east actually, for good.

[Johonny]

54. domestically probably nothing

Obama has a hard time getting good press for the things he does. So it's not like he would get alot of praise for this move. He would face conservative criticism irregardless of the decision so it's not like their opinion matters. Domestically Americans care more about jobs and the economy than this war. As long as he had a demonstratably counter terrorist plan he would be ok.

Internationally it's hard to say. Clearly the big three in the area Russia, India and China didn't jump on board with significant $$ or troop backing for us staying at least not publicly. So it's hard to say we would take a big international hit. It's also hard to say that the NATO response would be negative. Obama didn't push too hard the voices of our NATO allies, which sounds like they were only in this as long as we are in this. They aren't the driving force for this. Now there might have been significant deterioration in Afghanistan and/or Pakistan. That is likely to occur anyways. It's certainly occurring now. It's also not clear how much help we can give Pakistan if we can't directly engage in that country. In the end we might just be delaying the obvious conclusion to the situation. In the end the counter terrorism in the area will likely be delt with by a much smaller more precision oriented task force.

Politically there is huge upside to the move if A) he kill Bin Laden B) he creates a pseudo peace that allows a declaration of victory C) he gains Russian, Chinese, Indian backing of some kind.

Politically there is huge downside A) if he can't remove his troops in his time period. B) the situation deteriorates and the economy deteriorates.

[Orsino]

55. CUTANDRUN CUTANDRUN CUTANDRUN CUTANDRUN CUTANDRUN

...on Fox' screen crawl, and on the lips of nine out of ten pundits. Obama pilloried in the press for "losing" in Afghanistan.