Expect a vote split like you can't imagine in 2012!

[Taverner]

My Freeper dad just came by and was all a twitter about Lou Dobbs running for pres. Of course, he's not going to run as an 'R' so in short, he has no chance

But think how many "bootstrap" Conservatives will end up voting for Perot..er...I mean Dobbs!

This could turn out beautifully! If only congressional elections had this kind of play...

[pokercat999]

1. You're correct, if only we could find a left of center

candidate to run against Obama in the primary.

[phantom power]

2. Tell ya what I think is interesting: we may have *two* big voter splits.

From both the left end and the right end.

[Aramchek]

4. nope. Obama has the left sewn up.

You're dreaming if you think he'll face a serious contender.

[phantom power]

6. Huh. From where I sit, the left seems pretty disenchanted with Obama these days.

[Aramchek]

8. yet Obama is their only option, if they want to vote for the winner

sure you could throw your vote in the garbage by voting for Kucinich or some other fringe candidate.
but most don't want to waste their vote.

do you?

[phantom power]

11. I do not. On The Other Hand...

1) It's not really about what I think. It's about whether large numbers of people are feeling disaffected. For example, that same logic applies to republicans, but that didn't stop them from a mass-defection to Perot, thus throwing the election to Clinton. It didn't stop disenchanted left voters from defecting to Nader in 2000 -- not 19%, but just enough to throw the election to Bush, thereby changing history utterly.

2) Speaking for myself, I'm having a more and more difficult time defining what it means, exactly, to "throw away" my vote. The last 11 months have done more to undermine my faith in the value of electing Democrats than anything I've seen in 40 years. Just judging from what I see here at DU, I'm clearly not alone.

3) Desperate times increase the likelihood of third-party defections, from either party. I don't think we are headed in the right direction, and if I'm right about that, it means that by 2012 we can expect things to be worse than now, not better. That kind of climate is going to be good for third party challengers of all political alignments.

At any rate, I think the 2010 elections will be an indication of whether I am reading the goat entrails correctly or not.

[Aramchek]

16. you still haven't named anyone who might actually challenge Obama for votes

likely, because there is noone.

[phantom power]

18. I do not pretend to predict the weather 3 years out. Just the climate.

[Aramchek]

19. in other words, you're just talking out of your ass

[phantom power]

20. I'm sure you know best. We'll see in three short years.

[Taverner]

23. Politics is all about the here and the now

If Obama ignores everything until January 2011, but makes his policies relevant and effective then - we won't be talking about a disaffected left...

[seeinfweggos]

12. 82% approval = "pretty disenchanted"?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124484/Obama-Approval-Slide-Finds-Whites-Down-39.aspx

[Lorien]

25. He's below 50% overall

Independents make up the largest segment of voters in the US.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

9. "Obama has the left sewn up."

On what planet?! :rofl:

[Aramchek]

13. Earth, of course. Who else are they going to vote for?

Nader?
Dobbs?
Palin?

[5thGenDemocrat]

17. How about not voting at all?

I can see plenty of disillusioned citizens just sitting it out.
John
On both sides.

[yurbud]

21. whose the left splitter?

[phantom power]

22. I still don't at all get why it matters *who* it will be...

In 1989, was anybody predicting that Ross Perot was going show up three years later and challenge Bush from the Right? He got 19% of the vote. In 1992, Bush's base was disaffected, and the economy was bad.

In 2012, it's going to be just the same, but were going to have an incumbent Dem. And the economy is likely to be even worse. And if we are to take Obama at his word, we will still be in two quagmire wars of occupation. That leaves a huge opening for a challenge from the left. Somebody will step in to fill that niche. I don't know who, and to me it doesn't really matter. The point is it will be somebody, and that somebody will stand a good chance of picking up a significant fraction of votes.

[Lorien]

24. Yep. Looks like it

I plan on voting for someone who stands up for Democratic principles-WHOEVER that may be!

[Aramchek]

3. It will be a 3 way showdown

Dobbs as an Indie, Palin as a Teabagger a whatever poor bastard the GOP puts up.

[notesdev]

5. I could see as many as five or six

This society is shattered into so many little pieces, three just doesn't seem enough. I can ID at least three separate factions on the right, and with what the Democratic officeholders are doing, just as many on the left is plausible. The Internet makes fundraising and voter outreach a whole new ball game.

[phasma ex machina]

14. +1 Should prove interesting to see how the hypothetical fragmentation trend plays out in 2012. nt

[Andy823]

10. Don't forget

Good old Glen Beck! I think maybe he has some hopes of running on the "lunatic" ticket! :evilgrin:

[Contrary1]

7. I suggest Dobbs and Palin wrestle in a pit of elephant dung for the nomination...

The winner gets to lose in 2012. You betchya!

[Taverner]

15. You really want to see Lou Dobb's white, puffy flesh smeared in Elephant Dung?

I mean, I have my kinks too, but man! That's just gross!