Obama and Independents - Another look at the polls

[Are_grits_groceries]

A quick look at Obama trends with independents. There have been several articles in the last week about independents deserting the Dems. A good bit of that was spurred by the huge Rep margins among independents in VA (66-33) and NJ (60-30-9) governors races. There are also some indications on policy issues that independents are not supporting Democratic positions.

But support for Obama has not plummeted among independents, and that needs to be clarified before it becomes erroneous conventional wisdom. It especially makes no sense to compare independent support in January with independent support now, and conclude there has been a collapse of support. The pattern this fall, since Sept 1, has been quite stable among independents. Depending on which polls you use, a shade up or a shade down, but overall, not a huge trend either way over the past 3 months.
<snip>

The clear message of the chart is that all three partisan groups have plateaued since the end of August, with little real change since.

What about disgruntled liberal Dems and angry conservative Reps? Let's look at those numbers:

There is no evidence that any group of Dems, especially liberal Dems are unhappy with Obama's performance. Critical is that moderate and even conservative Dems have not moved away since August. Angry conservative Reps are indeed very unhappy with Obama, at almost the same level of disgust as Dems felt for Bush, but they too have reached a plateau at a steady 10% approval. The small number of moderate Reps have also plateaued (I'd discount small moves in the last week of the aggregation.)

So the point is simple: Claims of abandonment of Obama by independents (or lib-Dems or con-Dems) are substantially exaggerated over the past three months. Significant decline from May through August, yes indeed among Inds and Reps, but that trend halted in August.

<snip>

Our overall, no cherry picking allowed, estimate sees a small decline recently, that is not visible in the weekly Gallups. But it is not a large decline and until it turns more sharply, I'm not convinced we see a bit move among independents as it concerns Obama support. On other issues, yes Dems should be concerned. But not on this one. Not yet.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/obama_and_indepedents.php

Interesting...

[Go2Peace]

1. That's major SPIN. This is his "interpretation" that does not at all look like the Gallop poll

I also could not find anything indicating these polls were among likely voters

This page discusses the trends (better to go to the page as it is formatted better than my cut and paste):

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Presidential%2bJob%2bApproval.aspx

Obama Job Approval Down to 49%

President becomes fourth fastest to slip below the majority approval level

November 20, 2009Gallup Daily tracking from Nov. 17-19 shows President Barack Obama’s job approval slipping to 49% for the first time in his presidency. Among post-World War II presidents, only Gerald Ford, Bill Clinton, and Ronald Reagan dropped below the symbolic majority approval level faster than Obama did.
More ...


Americans Assess Obama’s Efforts to Help Blacks


November 9, 2009
Nearly half of Americans (47%) think President Obama’s policies are “about right” in promoting efforts to aid the black community, down from the 64% who said this a year ago.


Political Climate for 2010 Not as Favorable to Democrats
Maintain edge in party strength measures, but public dissatisfied with nation’s course
November 4, 2009

The U.S. political climate heading into 2010 is not as favorable to the Democratic Party as it was in 2006 and 2008. Though Democrats continue to have an edge in party affiliation and President Obama retains majority approval, congressional approval and satisfaction with the U.S. are low.
More ...

One Year After Election, Americans Less Sure About Obama

Far fewer say he will be able to control federal spending or heal political divisions

November 3, 2009

Americans are much less sure than they were a year ago at the time of his election that President Barack Obama will be able to accomplish a number of challenges facing his administration. In particular, far fewer Americans believe he will be able to heal political divisions and control federal spending.
More ...

[Are_grits_groceries]

2. Charlie Cook

is one of the most respected pollsters around. He is delving into the numbers a different way, and he sees a different picture. Cook admits he can be wrong, and he has owned up when he has been.

He isn't a paid Obama operative who spins for food.

Do I believe this as gospel? No
However, I put do put some credence into his work.

Numbers can be sliced and diced a million ways.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. What AGG Said

Cook is a true expert in the field of social statistics. He is finding things in the data that other less skilled pollsters do not even know how to find.
GAC

[leveymg]

3. BS. The reason VA went Repub is because Dems didn't turn out - Deeds too far Right

he even ran away from HCR, saying he'd opt out if a Public Option passed. Nobody turned out to catch him when he fell off the cliff at the end of a disastrous campaign that saw him as largely a shadow of McDonnell, the Republican candidate. GOP turn out was at near-record levels, Dem near the historical bottom.

I'm here in VA and saw it close up. Tim Kaine said the same thing a couple days ago - glad to say, some of the Party leaders aren't buying this BS about the electorate moving Right.

The way for the Dems to win more elections is not to run and hide at the center-right. That turns-off the activist base you need to win again. See, http://journals.democraticunderground.com/leveymg/459

[VMI Dem]

4. I refused to vote for Deeds.

You are correct.

[leveymg]

5. I held my nose. Even did some GOTV and election day poll watching, as usual.

But, it's not like I spent four months full-time knocking on doors like I did in '08. I might have if Jody was at the top of the ticket. She could have won, despite the Senate Finance Committee who really sealed the deal for me. Max Baucus and the other Blue Dogs are going to destroy the Democratic Party.

[Are_grits_groceries]

6. Cook is pointing out some trends he sees.

He is looking at an overall sampling and not the case from one state. In addition, he doesn't espouse a certain path to take.
The people who use polls have choices to make from what they see. Different people see different messages in the polls about what they should do next.

[whyverne]

7. Damn those independents!

We kowtow to people who can't make up their minds.

• Paper or plastic?
  
• Beatles or Rolling Stones?
  
• Mary Ann or Ginger?
  
• Republican or Democratic?

There are two choices. Pick one.
Stop being sophomoric. Hold your nose and pick one.
Quit dithering!

[spanone]

8. it's easy....the media lies