Wow, home sales up by record amount.

[Stinky The Clown]

The stock market's smokin' hot.

I guess everything's getting closer to being okay. Really. I'm sure of it. Gettin' better.







Jobs?

Huh?

Shhhhhhhhhhh .........

[GMA]

1. Who says tax breaks don't spur economic activity?

n/t

[dysfunctional press]

74. actually, wasn't it the impending end of the tax break that did it in october?

a lot of americans tend to procrastinate.

[paulsby]

88. i just closed on a sale today

talkin' to my broker etc. there is little doubt that the incentive for first time home buyers really spurred some buying

[dysfunctional press]

89. as did the definition of 'first-time buyer'.

[paulsby]

90. lol yes nt

[jgraz]

78. Every honest economist.

You know, the ones who aren't Republican.

[DJ13]

2. Stop it!

We must drink the Kool Aid, reality is not allowed.

[girl gone mad]

82. No kidding, but it isn't very complicated to see what's really going on.

Courtesy of http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/existing-home-sales-distressing-gap.html">Calculated Risk:

After the expected spike in existing home sales last month, I quoted legendary basketball coach John Wooden:

"Never mistake activity for achievement."

It is worth repeating this month.

First, it is important to remember that existing home sales are largely irrelevant for the economy. What matters for the economy are new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. And there has been little improvement in these key indicators.

This really shows up on the following graph:



This graph shows existing home sales (left axis) through October, and new home sales (right axis) through September.

The initial gap was caused by the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

The recent spike in existing home sales was due primarily to the first time homebuyer tax credit.

But what matters for the economy - and jobs - is new home sales, and new home sales are still very low because of huge overhang of existing home inventory and rental properties.

Second, normally a decline in inventory and the months-of-supply would be considered a positive for the existing home market, however much of the apparent recent improvement in months-of-supply is related to the artificial - and likely short lived - boost in activity.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

3. I'm so sorry, Stinky.

Economic recovery must hurt you deeply.

[Stinky The Clown]

6. I would welcome real recovery

We don't have that, much as you wish it were so. We have a growing housing bubble. We continue to lose jobs. The rich get richer by the day, in partt as a result of using bailout money to bail out the "Too Big To Fails".

But you keep on snarking and remaining willfully delusional.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. No you wouldn't.

Not that you'd recognize it when you see it.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. Do you have anything "discussional" to say?

I would expect that from The Smartest Person On DU.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. Do you?

I mean, all you did was post some good news and then whine about it.

Maybe you can post some bad news and be happy about that?

[Warren DeMontague]

21. My feet hurt, and I need to get a filling replaced.

[Stinky The Clown]

14. Yup .... things are going swimmingly

We're so in control of things.

At this rate, we're not going to "recover" until all we have is the underwear on our butts.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7070727

[jpak]

17. Some people are under the delusion that recovery for a deep recession is going to happen overnight

and then there are some people do not want a recovery at all to prove some kind of sick point.

just sayin'

[Stinky The Clown]

20. Some people are sick of seeing that trickle down bullshit, bailing out the top 1% and .....

..... the Too Big To Fails. All the while, my neighbors - and maybe even yours - are losing their jobs.

Then they lose their houses.

That's what getting bought. The debris, the economic flotsam and jetsam, of actual, real lives. Tell those people how great it is.

Nah. Let's cheer for those home sales.

And hey! How 'bout that DOW, Huh?

[jpak]

24. How is the Stimulus Bill which is totally responible for the rise in home sales "trickle down" BS

How do you turn the economy around without supporting home sales?

clue

YOU CAN'T

sorry to break this to you...

[Stinky The Clown]

Of course ...... you're right

[jpak]

30. Sorry to inform you of this - but when people buy new homes they buy stuff to go in it

and buying that stuff stimulates the economy and puts people back to work.

So yeah - I am right.

Unemployment in my state dropped two months in a row and is 2% below the national average.

Unemployment dropped in 13 states last month.

...and all that is Bad Bad Bad news according to the Sad Sacks.

yup

[dana_b]

41. except most of that stuff is made

in other countries. Unemployment in my state went up to over 13%. Whooopee!!!

[jpak]

55. Yes - that's Obama's fault too

:eyes:

[Stinky The Clown]

60. I thought we were talking fact? Why raise an issue of personalities?

That statement is pretty much true.

Look around the room you're in right now. What was purchased in the last 5 years and was made in the USA? In the last 10 years? Seriously. What products will, in your view, be sold that were made in the USA and support other than minimum wage retail jobs? And longshoreman jobs unloading sea containers?

[jpak]

62. They make mattresses in my state and bed frames and tables and chairs

and they still make Kenmore appliances in the USA and lots more

http://www.stillmadeinusa.com/appliances.html

and in the Northeast, people might buy American made wood and pellet stoves to heat their new homes too.

Oh yeah - they would get a Bad Obama Bad Democratic tax credit for them too.

Is Kool-aid still made in the USA????

:D

[Stinky The Clown]

66. What is with you and the personality crap? Is the irony completely lost on you that it must be .....

..... pretty bad if there is a need for a web site that lists a few hundred things still made in the USA?

No one is saying this is Obama's fault. This crap started under St Ronnie. Or earlier. Obama is simply the latest caretaker of this bleak, bullshit legacy.

But you go ahead. Make it about personalities. That's a good way to sidestep issues. <--- sarcasm. Not to be taken seriesly

Call people "haters" too. That will help. <---sarcasm. Not to be taken like a moran might.

[jpak]

72. Personality crap? Naw - it's all about the DOOOOOOOOOM

Any good economic news is bad.

all bad economic news is good.

Doom - the new black

It's cool!

:puke:

[nadinbrzezinski]

73. Actually I bought a new set of mixing bowls

when I started baking

The brand is Anchor and they ARE made in the US.

http://www.sears.com/shc/s/p_10153_12605_00805059000P?vName=For%20the%20Home&cName=Bakeware&sName=Mixing%20Bowls%2C%20Measuring%20Cups%20&%20Spoons=&psid=FROOGLE01&sid=I0084400010000100600&aff=Y&origin=prod

I was pleasantly surprised.

There is a brand of socks I use for my diabetes, that again is made in the US.

I'd like to see more, but actually we are starting to see some jobs come back... and you can thank the weak dollar for that.

[HughMoran]

18. The recession didn't stop outsourcing?

Is that all you got??

:rofl:

I lost my last job to China along with thousands of tech-pros. Welcome to the REAL world. Oh, unless you have some nice protectionist measures that you think will fix everything? No? Then put that red herring down you clown.

[Stinky The Clown]

23. Hey! Hugh!

Right on cue. You just can't help yourself. I post, and there you are. You Love me, dontcha?

:smoooooooch:

[HughMoran]

26. Paranoia

big destroyia

I saw your thread, read your silly response, then read your even more silly ad hominem lack of response to my very real point.

[Stinky The Clown]

27. Hugh .... and I quote:

"That's it"

All the rest is pathetic follow-on.

[HughMoran]

28. Some might say you're a coward for going ad hominem

I wouldn't say that, but according to Fox "News" :rofl:

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. I actually do, not that our current congress agrees or the President for that matter

Jefferson and Madisson spoke of tariffs making any imported good just as expensive as those produced in the US, to protect our infant industry. I am all for that. It worked well for 225 years... then came Ronnie Reagan...

[HughMoran]

57. Tough genie to put back in the bottle

Look what protectionism did for Herbert Hoover.

[nadinbrzezinski]

58. Except taht we are China right now

and China is us in 1929...

:-)

[MellowOne]

68. Even customer service call center jobs are outsourced

American Expess, AT&T, Virgin Mobile, to name a very few, are outsourcing their call centers mostly to the Orient and India. And you can't understand what they say because their accents are so thick.

[HughMoran]

69. It's infuriating, isn't it?

The only plus-side I've seen is that the Indians will stay on the phone with you all night if they have to - lol.

[jpak]

10. +1

:thumbsup:

[HughMoran]

12. Burns his miserable ass

:rofl:

[Stinky The Clown]

25. You know ...... you're really ......

.... cute when you laugh.

And I LOVE how you so openly worship me and follow me around. You're just the ginchiest!

:smoooo oooooch:

[jgraz]

79. I'm hurt. He used to follow me around

Then I won too many arguments and he put me on ignore. :cry:

[girl gone mad]

84. Please don't mistake increased activity..

for recovery. They aren't the same thing.

It's much too early to start counting your chickens.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. I hate to teach econ 101 but jobs are a LEADING indicator on the way

down, and a lagging indicator on the way out. We will not see positive growth in that front before, in my view mid 2010 best case scenario... and politically that could be a disaster.

[Cant trust em]

35. Why is this such a hard concept for folks to understand?

When businesses barely start to turn a profit again it's not time to start hiring.

You wait until you see your profits sustain themselves for a period, then decide that you can't handle the growth with existing capacity.

[jpak]

37. hear hear

:toast:

[coalition_unwilling]

75. I agree with you in theory. But somehow this one feels very different

from the models offered by theory and history. To wit, most economists say the Great Recession began in December of 2007. However, at the time, the national unemployment rate was still low by historical standards (not exactly full employment but certainly not > 8%). Only as the recession continued did the unemployment rate start to creep higher. So I would say that, this time is different, because employment has been a lagging indicator by historical standards.

I've seen talk elsewhere on DU that the shift from a manufacturing economy to a consumerist\service sector economy accounts for this shift of employment as leading\lagging indicator.

I'm still chewing on the phenomoneon and data, so this is just a feeling for now. But I'd be interested to hear your take on it.

[girl gone mad]

81. Not always.

Not in a consumer driven recession. 23 months after the recession officially began, we are still losing jobs. At some point, people are going to have to drop the "lagging indicator" canard. Personally, I think we are several months beyond that point.

[JuniperLea]

5. There's a lot of real estate bargains out there right now...

No big surprise.

That we haven't completely crashed and burned by now is a really big surprise. But no one seems to care about that.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. That's the stimulus

and it has not been fully spent yet.

[JuniperLea]

16. Yep...

What I don't get is how quickly people around HERE... HERE ON DU for fuck's sake... people have forgotten how dire things were a year ago. Yes, things are worse now than they were, but nowhere near as bad as they would have been if not for the stimulus. And Obama was right up front about that, saying things would get worse before they got better.

I'm choking on the thick stench of ignorance around here.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. And peopel are proud of it too

:-)

Jacoby is right, we live in a new age of unreason...

[JuniperLea]

36. The "Yay Team!" mentality...

Even when it hurts themselves... they will root for their "team" to the death (metaphorically, of course)... even if it's their own.

[Stinky The Clown]

40. Most of the stimubux unspent, talk of using the unspent part to pay down the debt .....

..... (not saying that's the plan, only that it was a trial balloon this past week).

Where's the massive spending that most liberal economists postulate is the immediate need?

I'm sorry I disappoint you as a DUer.

[nadinbrzezinski]

43. 1936 and taking the foot off the pedal

should serve as a warning of WHY that money needs to be invested in oh jobs. My preferred would be the Conservation Corp II.

[JuniperLea]

53. Indeed!

And I don't even care if I'm called a socialist...

And it needs to start very, very soon.

[JuniperLea]

51. Hey, you stink, you know it, you celebrate it!

:rofl:

J/K...

I can't possibly know the answer to that, and neither can you. All I know is this...

A year ago we thought we were on the slippery slope to The Great Depression V2.0. Seems something happened to change that... or slow it down.

We were in the Titanic, going over Niagara Falls... and somehow, we didn't hit bottom... and the bow has turned to point up. We don't have much momentum, yet, but at least we didn't shatter on the rocks below!

All that said, something is happening to slow the destruction, and possibly turn it around, if momentum holds.

But to think that one year in one administration can fix the massive fuck ups of the past eight years is just moronic... at the very best it's moronic... at worst, it's evil propaganda in the hope that Obama fails.

What I don't get is the joy at that last thought... even though everyone would suffer... that is really stupid.

[Stinky The Clown]

59. The whispered talk is a coming second dip when the comm'l real estate bust .......

.... makes the residential one seem like a firecracker at a fireworks display.

Jobs continue to leave. What do we make here?

What jobs will people do? Healthcare is a boom business, but community colleges are jam packed with people retraining for it. So that could depress those formerly rock solid wages and jobs soon enough.

What "joy" are you talking about? I'm not getting that part.

[jpak]

65. whispered doom DOOOOM

we can't wait for that to happen can we

:thumbsdown:

[jpak]

9. recovery = bubble = horseshit

Doom on

[louis-t]

15. But the average sale price is a quarter of what it was.

Mostly short sales and bank owned. Bargain basement prices. They're looking at # of units sold only. I have people coming from other states and countries to buy foreclosures. I'm not looking forward to another winter showing freezing, mold filled, vandalized houses. Yuck.

[jpak]

22. Are you saying that home prices have DROPPED 75% since the Bush Bubble burst?

either rephrase that or a math redo is in order

[QC]

34. Around here some properties have dropped almost half from their phony bubble values.

I made an offer on one of them today, owned by a realtor who tried to play tycoon and is now desperate to avoid foreclosure.

If the deal goes through, it will count in the stats as a sale, but it's certainly not a success story for the real estate industry.

I suspect the previous poster meant a quarter off, not of.

[louis-t]

93. In some cases they've gone down more than 75%

I was out showing $20,000 houses this morning. 3 years ago most of them would have sold for between $70,000 and $80,000. I do this for a living. I'm talking about MI. Detroit houses that were selling for $100,000 can be bought for $10,000. It's more than just atmospheric devaluation. The houses are being stripped, power gets shut off, mold takes over. It's disgusting. I will NOT 'rephrase' that. The majority of the houses that are selling where I live have gone down in value 40-90%. Homes that were worth a million dollars asking under $400,000. Maybe you should know what you're talking about before you question my math.

[Cant trust em]

33. Hell, the Pontiac Silverdome sold for something like $550K

I should have gotten some buddies together to swing by Michigan to buy it.

[bevoette]

67. not here. turnaround avg. about 2 mos., most at asking (nm)

:shrug:

[Warren DeMontague]

19. I'm still reeling since the stock market dropped to 3,000, like the DU "experts" said it would.

And of course we're at war with Iran, just like so many accurately predicted for years.

Thank God I put all my money in gold, and I have that basement full of beef jerky.

I wish the fucking pollyannas would stop and pay attention to DU's many steely-eyed realists, don't you?

[RagAss]

48. LOL !

[A HERETIC I AM]

64. Is the beef jerky next to the carload of rice?

That was one of the other things to buy, wasn't it? Along with canned goods and ammo.

[girl gone mad]

87. Well, if you would have bought gold..

you would be kicking ass right now. It's outperformed the market.

This doomer called the bottom at 6500 on the DOW, right here on DU, a few weeks before it happened. And if you had been listening to those who were calling the housing and credit bubbles, you would have sold stocks starting in July 2007 (when the first indications of credit crisis emerged) and also sold bubble real estate near the peak. You would be better off than the cheerleaders, who are still down 40% in the markets and 30% or more in housing. Just saying.

[Warren DeMontague]

91. True, gold is doing well.

I'm not a cheerleader OR a doomsayer; I'm sort of in the much-maligned mushy middle, which probably would make for a good band name.

[dixiegrrrrl]

29. Let's take a real example:

Since early 2000 housing was booming in one of our richest counties, on the Gulf.
Speculation ran rampant. Prices soared. People were buying and selling spec condos before one inch of cement was poured.
Next door, in Mobile County, , housing was doing ok, there was a lot of inventory, tho, and prices were high.

Latest report for Oct. 2009 to end of Oct. 09:

houses in the booming area have dropped 64% in price, equal amount in sales. Aver. length on market is 294 days. ( this counts the empty condos, too).
Those condo construction loans are coming due. There are dozens of half built condo structures
littering the beach.

In Mobile, houses are selling, prices have actually gone up by 2%, average days on market is 84.
But median price of houses selling is only 129,000.
The LOW end of the market is selling, due to the tax credit.
The high end, not much.

THIS is the reality I see.

[Bluebear]

31. I will let them know at my foreclosure lol

[Fire1]

38. Tell that to the people in Michigan. We don't see it. nt

[Stinky The Clown]

42. I'm on your side.

The OP was sarcasm. Read the replies to this thread. It will become clear who stands with whom.

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. So being able to see the macro picture

and understanding that GNP is actually in positive numbers, (which technically yes means the worst is over) means I am not on the side of working folks?

WOW!!!!!!

Now at a MICRO level, aka my hubby, we are not seeing it YET either, but I highly recommend people invest in an econ 101 course.

[Fire1]

50. We understand micro and macro but people out of work

really only give a damn about the picture that's affecting them, at any given point and time and you can't blame them.

[nadinbrzezinski]

52. I can't blame them, otoh Americans are woefully uneducated

as to how the economy works or what an economic indicator is.

And proud of it by the way.

[Fire1]

54. Ok. I give you that. n/t

[Fire1]

47. I knew it was sarcasm, Stinky but rather than jump in the midst

of countering posts, I decided to reply to the OP. I heard that garbage on msnbc, this a.m. and laughed.

[jpak]

61. Did any of the following benefit MI???

GM and Chrysler bailouts

Cash 4 Clunkers

Extended unemployment benefits

How much worse off would Michigan be none of the above had happened?

*clue*

GM in liquidation

continued declining auto sales

millions of unemployed Michigan residents with NO unemployment benefits.

That sound good to you?

That's what the GOP would have done for Michigan.

whine on

[Stinky The Clown]

70. Nice .... Michiganders are whiners?

Michigan Unemployment Rate
(Seasonally Adjusted)

October 2009 15.1%
Change Over Month -0.2
Change Over Year +6.0

http://www.milmi.org/

And where has anyone advocated for a Republican administration?

We're done. Get in your last say. I'll read it and keep quiet.

"Whine on" ....... nice. I hope you never need some empathy.

[Fire1]

97. Have no fear, Stinky. Karma's a BIOTCH!!!! LOL!!! n/t

[we can do it]

39. Ya Gotta Live Somewhere & Here In Ohio Its Cheaper To Buy Than Rent

renting definitely pads someone else's pockets.....

[orwell]

46. I'm confused?

Is this supposed to be bad?

[girl gone mad]

83. Not necessarily bad, but not necessarily good.

As I noted in a post above, the increase was only seen in sales of existing homes, which has very little impact on the economy. New home sales are what drive job creation.

Insofar as inventory is being reduced, it could be a positive. Insofar as it is pushing renters to own, it is probably a net negative. This will put more pressure on rents, leading to further deflation and more commercial defaults. Long term, it puts even more pressure on house prices.

People were concerned that the tax credit would expire. That, and low interest rates, have temporarily pulled forward demand. We will see how things turn out with the expanded credit, shadow inventory, expected rate increases, etc.

[varelse]

49. A picture worth many times more than the thousands of words

which will undoubtedly be hurled forth here by the apologists.

[Dreamer Tatum]

56. More from the DU Tailchasers

"GODDAMNIT! THE VALUE OF MY HOUSE IS GOING DOWN! THE COMPS ARE FOR SHIT! I'M DOOMED!"

"GODDAMNIT! HOUSE PRICES ARE INCREASING! IT'S A NEW BUBBLE! IT'S FREEPERS! IT'S GOLDMAN SACHS! WAAAAHHHHHHH!"


Repeat as often as necessary to lose mind.

[jpak]

63. LOL!

:rofl:

[HughMoran]

71. ditto

:rofl:

[tabasco]

77. Hahahahaha!

That's right.

[nadinbrzezinski]

85. You forgot one line though

WE'RE DOOMED! WE ARE SCREWED!

Insert anywhere in your lines.

Guaranteed to raise your blood pressure

:hi:

[athenasatanjesus]

76. I just hope these homes are being bought by people not businesses

nt

[mmonk]

80. sales were down so much it just seems like a return to normality.

But any increase no matter how meager will give a big appearance of huge jump percentage wise. As a realtor, we are not experiencing a second bubble because the prices aren't being inflated on wide scale. We're just coming off a very deep bottom. America will have larger set unemployment numbers because we aren't doing enough to create jobs through enough work related stimulus and business and trade policies have not changed. Until those things change, we are going to have lower standards of living. The Democratic Party needs to drop the "third way" or the DLC and get itself back some Roosevelt bloodlines. We needed a Roosevelt this past election but got a Clinton.

[FatDave]

86. Stinky, I respect your opinions and love your posts, but I have what I hope is good news.

I just got hired as a truck driver, fresh out of school with no experience. It's not just the fact that I was able to find a job that has me optimistic on the economy, it's that if trucking companies are hiring again (even newbs) then it means freight is moving again. If freight is moving, it means people are buying. And it's not just holiday freight, that was all shipped months ago. Prior to a month or two ago, trucking companies were cutting drivers. The ones that weren't going under anyway.

So I'm cautiously optimistic. It's better to build slowly anyway. Fast climbs lead to faster falls.

[Stinky The Clown]

92. My post ought to demonstrate a desire for *actual* good news when only puffery is being given.

The smartasses upthread are members of the local Kool Kids brigade. So we have to expect them to come into threads like this and agree with each other and inflate the thread with repetitive snark and shots at the OP and lots "Yeah, what HE said" replies.

But YOUR post is real, honest, good news.

And it proves the point of the OP. When a single person gets a job, then, for that single person, there's real hope. Real optimism, no matter how cautious and guarded. You and I have never really discussed things before, but I'll bet there was a quiet celebration in your recent past. When you got that job, your felt PUMPED. You felt better about yourself and about your world.

Attitude means a lot. Whether for countries or individuals. And JOBS improve attitude. Something the repubicans never understood with respect to our inner cities and something the Kool Kids want to avoid as they cheer the rising stock market or the increase in sales of incredibly price-depressed housing.

When more people get to experience what you just did, things will be much better.

I never really gave it much thought, but your trucking industry analysis makes sense. It is a service business that can really only do well when others do well. Kinda the same thing as you getting your job.

And congrats on the job, by the way. I'm genuinely happy for you!

[tjwash]

94. Still sitting on my investment properties.

Been sitting on them since the 90's. That's what you do with real estate. People that bought high and fucked up the market because they got greedy and thought they could flip them for a quick buck got fleeced. Caveat-emptor.

I am in the middle of refi'ing a couple of them, and will be able to knock it down to a little over 5 years they are completely paid off, and still save a bit on the monthlies. Banks have free'd up credit again, at decent rates so that helps me out a bit.

A lot of the stock I bought when the market was hovering at 7k is really starting to take off as well. My 401k's have recovered quite a bit, and even though I had to cash in a large CD to pay off all my credit cards and get free and clear of that debt, I am way ahead of where I was 3 years ago when this whole mess started.

And there's places out here that are starting to hire again. We ARE going from a depression to merely a recession, it ain't going to be boom time for a while.

I guess the next step is to get flamed by a bunch of people here and feel guilty about my head being above water for a change.

[Stinky The Clown]

95. I won't flame you. But you're right. Some might.

Every individual's story is different. It the averaging off all stories that creates the national mood. When too many are glum (unemployed and/or screwed by the markets), the entire national mood is in the dumper.

Happy talk on the news about the rise in the stock market and booming home sales does little other than make those who are hurting angrier and more cynical ...... and more likely to vote against whoever is in power.

[LWolf]

96. My mom, a senior citizen, just got turned down

trying to refinance her house.

It's worth less now than it was in 2000 when she bought it. The value of her home has halved in the last 18 months.