H1N1 Vaccine Maker Stocks Soar ! (Rec if you Distrust Big Pharma! )

[Techn0Girl]

The major swine flu pharmaceutical companies have made record profits and seen record stock increases the past six months. H1N1 vaccine sales have accounted for literally billions of dollars in just U.S. sales alone. This, despite the fact that regular seasonal flu kills three times more Americans than H1N1 flu and poses a greater threat to American lives.

Don't believe me?

Every Year, 36,000 Americans die of a seasonal flu.

Less than 6000 additional deaths will be attributed to H1N1

Obviously regular seasonal flu kills 5 - 6 times more Americans each year than H1N1 and is a bigger threat to American health.

So why the big media scare over H1N1?

Perhaps these numbers will help:

1. A swine flu shot costs our government roughly $20 a shot.

2. There will be 114 million shots bought by our government this year

3. Total sales in H1N1 vaccine by the largest manufacturers were over one billion dollars for just two months orders in the U.S.


Make no mistake H1N1 vaccine is BIG business - and business is booming despite the fact that regular seasonal flu kills three times more Americans than H1N1.

Now let's look at how the H1N1 vaccine manufacturers stocks are doing since March when we had that last big H1N1 scare.


Novartis - up from 33 in March to 47 in November - a THIRTY PERCENT PLUS INCREASE

GLAXOSMITHKLINE - up from 27 in March to 39 in November - a THIRTY PERCENT PLUS INCREASE

SANOFI-AVENTIS - up from 24 in March to 34 in November - a FORTY PERCENT PLUS INCREASE

SINOVAC (China) - up from 1 in March to 9 in November - a NINE HUNDRED PERCENT PLUS INCREASE

Any of your own stocks go up 30 percent in half a year? How's that 401K looking for 'ya ?

We all know how the Pharmaceutical companies have been spending hundreds of millions buying up politicians and running hugely biased ad campaigns against health care. We all know that and read about it here weekly in DU.

Does anybody believe that they Pharmaceutical companies (you know the ones who put those ads every day on television telling you about all the drugs you need) are playing nice and straight with the the media regarding H1N1? They just made well over a billion dollars of sales in two months and climbing. What do you think?


Edit : FWIW all stories in DU regarding negative info on H1N1 vaccines or their Pharm companies get unrecced into nothingness within an hour of posting so I hate to say this but "Rec if you Distrust Big Pharma! "

[tblue]

1. I remember Rummy had serious stock in the Avian flu shot, or was it Theraflu.

I think Theraflu is also prescribed for H1N1, though I could be wrong.

But I always wonder, when I hear of the urgent need to "do something or die," who profits if I do?

[Junkdrawer]

3. Tamiflu n/t

[tblue]

5. Bwaaaaaahahahahha!

Ya caught me in the act of being myself! :P

[slutticus]

I own stock in some of these companies too. Does that cancel out the Rummy effect?

[rucky]

16. Not until you become the chairman of the board

like he was between 1997 and 2001

[Warren DeMontague]

2. So don't get the shot, if you don't want the shot.

It's very simple. Vaccines save lives.

I'll stack all the anti-vaccine woo woo bullshit against my aunt with Post Polio Syndrome, any day.

[BeatleBoot]

13. I think people that are against it may be too young to know the old folks

My best friend's Dad survived polio.

Not pretty.

I got my H1N1 2 weeks ago this past Saturday due to Asthma.

[Junkdrawer]

4. Oh, boy....

Say...any Pharma posters around?

:popcorn:

[Barack_America]

6. The vaccine is effective.

One of my coworkers ended up in the ER, my entire workplace got sick.

Not me. I was vaccinated. The govt's $20 was well spent on me, everybody else was out for days and we're all paid from govt. funds.

[stray cat]

9. I spent 100 for the ER alone - if I had the shot in May I would have gladly paid the 100 for it

[Techn0Girl]

14. Maybe it was effective ....

And maybe it wasn't. I wasn't vaccinated, live in one of the States that had the biggest outbreaks and never came down with the flu.

We can't go by individual stories of course, we have to go by overall stats. Now the overall stats for influenza vaccine does vary and there have been many studies done. Here is one of them:

In the New England Journal of Medicine a vaccine study was done of about 850 people. Some got a placebo and some got flu vaccine.

According to the study: "those who received the vaccine reported 25 percent fewer episodes of upper respiratory illness than those who received the placebo"

So in essence you still had a 3/4 chance of getting the flu .
So at best, according to this study, the flu vaccine is can reduce your chance of getting the flu bu only 25%

[Barack_America]

17. Colds are more common than flu and are also upper respiratory illness...

...this does not mean people still have 3/4 of getting the flu, as you claim.

Reduction of 25% of all upper respiratory illnesses likely means prevention of most cases of flu.


BTW, you left off the conclusion from that 1995 paper.

"Conclusions Vaccination against influenza has substantial health-related and economic benefits for healthy, working adults."

[Techn0Girl]

20. "Substantial Health realted benefits" ...

is an soft opinion. What is "substantial" to the authors? To me "substantial" means I don't get sick. Period.

But the figures in that study - that flu vaccines only decreased your chances of getting an upper respiratory infection (flu or cold related) by 1 in 4 - that's a numerical fact (according to the study we are both quoting).

[Barack_America]

22. Are you faulting the flu vaccine for not being the cure for the common cold?

The prevention of flu is much higher than 25%. From the CDC, the vaccines tend to be 70-90% effective in otherwise healthy people.
http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/PROFESSIONALS/VACCINATION/effectivenessqa.htm

As for the study you posted:

43% less days of work lost

44% less trips to the doctor

These are significant results, there is nothing "soft" about them.

[Techn0Girl]

23. Bottom line is still only 25% better chance of not getting a cold of flu after the vaccine

Same answer.

[Barack_America]

24. Well then, work on the cure for the common cold.

We seem to have flu covered.

[Techn0Girl]

25. Same Answer -

Even though the U.S. is buying several billion dollars of vaccine from Big Pharma....
#1. Flu vaccine is only mildly effective at best (25% )

#2. The manufacturers are raking in the bucks over it.

Look - I totally get that you are a fan of Big Pharma and have no problem with them making a fortune over this. I get it and respect your right to think that way.

Me, I'm the kind of person that thinks those "Ask your Doctor..." ads should be banned from television and think that Big Pharma needs to be heavily regulated and monitored.

[Barack_America]

29. Wrong. Flu vaccine is 70-90% effective in preventing flu.

And does not prevent colds, which are completely different viruses.

Believing the science that says the flu vaccination program is effective does not make one a fan of Big Pharma. The science and business of flu vaccines are separate issues. One can argue that the federal govt. should be making these vaccines without baselessly arguing against the efficacy of the vaccines themselves.

[stray cat]

7. People who buy stock better realize the vaccine is only good for this year and then gets thrown out

what it does mean is people are beginning to realize that infectious diseases can kill more than just the elderly and people don't want to die unnecessarily.

[kestrel91316]

8. Please provide a link that proves that seasonal flu is a bigger killer

THIS YEAR than H1N1 is. From what I have heard, the vast majority of flu out there this year is and has been H1N1, so unless the seasonal flu is extraordinarily deadly this year, this statement:

".....despite the fact that regular seasonal flu kills three times more Americans than H1N1 flu and poses a greater threat to American lives...."

cannot be true.

I applaud companies being able to make a profit from manufacturing something so important. It's not like they are making a killing from producing disposable plastic crap that is hazardous to children, or some such.

[stray cat]

10. No link needed as its an easy google. 30-40,000 per year in US from seasonal or complications

now we wait and see how many H1N1 kills directly or indirectly.

[kestrel91316]

11. I am also thrilled that I just got one of those flu shots, paid for by taxpayers

(that includes me), and that large numbers of obviously poor, uninsured people also got them. We ignore public health issues at our own risk. Please don't tell me you are one of those nuts who thinks public health services should not exist?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

12. Before the vaccine, H1N1 was expected to kill 60,000-90,000.

So scratch the low death rate up to vaccines, hygiene, and awareness.

[BeatleBoot]

15. Second that.

It's amazing how many people are afraid of the scientific method.



:thumbsup:

[sharp_stick]

18. A billion dollars

spread over 4 companies is a drop in the bucket. When Lipitor itself pulls in 8 billion a year for Pfizer this is next to nothing, it sure as hell isn't 30% for any single one of them. Take a look at all big pharma stocks, they've averaged more than 30% since March.

[Techn0Girl]

21. If you take a look at the link....

their stocks indeed rose 30% during the last six months - all of them. All of the vaccine producers.

And the 1 billion figure was for only two months sales in the U.S. I saw worldwide figures doing a bit of quick research that indicated several billion increased sales worldwide - for each manufacturer.

I also saw news releases from several of the manufacturers saying that they expected to sell even more in first quarter 2010 then they sold the year before in that quarter.

This is an ongoing profit machine - and it depends on the right kind of fear mongering in order to do it. We see it all the time on Television ("Ask you Doctor about ..." )

[xchrom]

19. ...

:rofl:

[lightningandsnow]

26. I unrecced for the "big pharma" line.

I have asthma, and H1N1 could kill me. I got the vaccine.

I'm on two medications, Effexor and Trazodone, for anxiety and depression. And I can honestly say that I haven't felt better in years. Modern medicine has probably saved my life on several occasions.

[Techn0Girl]

27. And I think that you SHOULD get it...

You're a perfect example of the kind of perseon who needs to get the vaccine (effectiveness concerns aside).

I am a FAN of modern medicine and a FAN of appropriate pharmaceuticals - I just believe that Big Pharma is way out of control - and also that Big Pharma is spending lots of media money to spread unnecessary fear about diseases (including H1N1) in order to turn a profit.

[BeatleBoot]

28. Correlation versus Causation

Your OP tries (and I mean really tries) to prove that the increase in the Drug companies stock prices are due to the H1N1 flu vaccine purchased by the government.

True, the government has purchased the H1N1 vaccine (I got mine 2 weeks ago on Doctor's orders due to Asthma).

And, I have no idea, but I am willing to concede that stock prices for the Drug companies have gone up.


That said, the rooster down the street crows everytime the sun comes up. The rooster doesn't cause the sun to come up, the two events are correlated, but one does not cause the other one to occur.

Unless one has a Magic Rooster. But I digress.

Correlation versus Causation is my point.

And I think its a damn good point, too.

[neverforget]

30. The entire stock market has been on a rally since March. So are you saying

that the rally is caused by "big pharma" and it's vaccines for H1N1?

[Barack_America]

31. And all for a useless vaccine, according to the OP.

This thread is a train wreck.

[Techn0Girl]

33. That's a Reasonable question

Yes, the market did rally overall. You're right and I'm sure some of that increase had to be due to overall market increase since we got rid of Bush.

But isn't it a fair question to ask how much of that increase was due to the billions of dollars of vaccine sales ... while at the same time maintaining an overall climate of fear that helped spur sales.

I remind you of the Avian flu scare that Donald Rumsfeld had a direct interest in while at the same time being in a cabinet position. While the Bird flu scare escalated so did Runsfeld stocks in the Pharma company to the point where he made tens of millions of dollars on the deal. And after his stock holdings were revealed the Bird flu scare went away in a matter of weeks.

We saw this happen before.

[Barack_America]

35. I'd say much of it was due to anticipation of millions of Americans...

...about to enter the health care system and get diagnosed with hypertension, diabetes, etc.

If I were looking to make a buck in the stock market, which I am not, I might consider Big Pharma as well. But that decision would have little to do with flu vaccines, which are traditionally not big money makers for that industry.

[neverforget]

36. The Bird Flu is still around but Rumsfeld isn't. It hasn't made the jump to human to human

transmission yet because we have been lucky AND our prevention efforts such as destroying the infected birds.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

[Techn0Girl]

38. For someone with your handle....

You have a remarkably short memory.

In fact avian flu does spread from human to human and we had our last "outbreak" of it here in the us in 03 -04. I'm not going to even provide a link (even though I looked it up to double check) because wtf?? it was only like five years ago. It was big news then ...tamaflu (from rumsfeld's company) was being promoted as a big "cure"... yadda yadda...

[neverforget]

39. nice rejoinder except you are so wrong on the facts. There was no outbreak

of bird flu in the States in 2003-2004. Nor has there been an epidemic of it. However there have been cases of humans getting the Bird Flu, mostly in Asia. Did you even look at the link from the CDC? because if you had, you wouldn't have posted what you did.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm


The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) epizootic (animal outbreak) in Asia, Europe, the Near East, and Africa is not expected to diminish significantly in the short term. It is likely that H5N1 virus infections among domestic poultry have become endemic in certain areas and that sporadic human infections resulting from direct contact with infected poultry and/or wild birds will continue to occur. So far, the spread of H5N1 virus from person-to-person has been very rare, limited and unsustained. However, this epizootic continues to pose an important public health threat.

There is little pre-existing natural immunity to H5N1 virus infection in the human population. If H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission among humans, an influenza pandemic could result, with potentially high rates of illness and death worldwide. No evidence for genetic reassortment between human and avian influenza A virus genes has been found to date, and there is no evidence of any significant changes to circulating H5N1 virus strains to suggest greater transmissibility to or among humans. Genetic sequencing of avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses from human cases in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia shows resistance to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine, two of the medications commonly used for treatment of influenza. This leaves two remaining antiviral medications (oseltamivir and zanamivir) that should still be effective against currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses. A small number of oseltamivir resistant H5N1 virus infections of humans have been reported. Efforts to produce pre-pandemic vaccine candidates for humans that would be effective against avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses are ongoing. However, no H5N1 vaccines are currently available for human use.

Research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) in animals than were earlier H5N1 viruses. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 virus are now shedding more virus for longer periods without showing symptoms of illness. This finding has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5N1 virus infection among pigs in China and Vietnam; H5N1 virus infection of cats (experimental infection of housecats in the Netherlands, isolation of H5N1 virus from domestic cats in Germany and Thailand, and detection of H5N1 viral RNA in domestic cats in Iraq and Austria); H5N1 virus infection of dogs (isolation of H5N1 virus from a domestic dog in Thailand); and isolation of H5N1 viruses from tigers and leopards at zoos in Thailand). In addition, H5N1 virus infection in a wild stone marten (a weasel-like mammal) was reported in Germany and in a wild civet cat in Vietnam. Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus strains that emerged in Asia in 2003 continue to evolve and may adapt so that other mammals may be susceptible to infection as well.

[Techn0Girl]

40. First you say ...

bird flu "It hasn't made the jump to human to human" and in your very next message you then give several incidents of bird flu outbreaks in humans.

I'm sorry but I think that you are being ingenuous.

Were you wrong about bird flu in your first message or your second? I won't respond to you further until you acknowledge which one was incorrect and which one is supposed to be correct.

[neverforget]

42. you have a reading comprehension problem. Human to human

transmission. Do you understand what that means? It means a human can give it to another like the cold or the regular seasonal flu. The Bird Flu has been found in humans but has not made the jump to where another human can give it to another. Humans have contracted the Bird Flu by being around infected birds. I said that it was not transmitted human to human, so I am correct on that point. On the other point about the humans that were infected with the Bird Flu, they contracted it from the birds. I am correct on both points. I have defended my position now defend yours.

First of all, you said this:
"In fact avian flu does spread from human to human and we had our last "outbreak" of it here in the us in 03 -04. I'm not going to even provide a link (even though I looked it up to double check) because wtf?? it was only like five years ago. It was big news then ...tamaflu (from rumsfeld's company) was being promoted as a big "cure"... yadda yadda..."

There was no Bird Flu outbreak that is spread from human to human in 2003-2004, because WTF? Why don't you provide the link because it was BIG NEWS.

[Name removed]

44. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[neverforget]

45. The links i provide were for H5N1. You are willfully uninformed.

And your teabagger remark. how childish. I am debating you in good faith and you resort to that crap. I feel sorry for you.

[neverforget]

46. Is this how you debate? Call me a name and then run?

My links were clearly about H5N1 which you made no attempt to tell me that you were talking about a different strain and then you finally provide a link to a different strain of flu, you call me a teabagger and run. WTF?

[HuckleB]

47. That's par for the course, unfortunately.

[neverforget]

48. How frustrating to have a debate end with such an imature statement.

Can't argue the facts so they call me a name, declare victory and run.

[HuckleB]

53. Indeed.

Alas, even at DU, it seems like it's difficult to find people intellectually honest enough to offer a worthy discussion.

Cheers!

[neverforget]

54. Cheers!

:toast:

[Snazzy]

37. the dow is up 62% since historic low on March 6th

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJIA

That was the lowest close since 1997. Remember AIG? They were in the news a bit, ha.

Making GSK and NVS (for example) losers versus blue chip and most other stuff.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1259031131656&chddm=71162&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:NVS&ntsp=0

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1259028934953&chddm=98141&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:GSK&ntsp=0

So what, scientific/medical illiteracy wasn't enough, now were tossing in finance too? Amazing.

[Sebastian Doyle]

32. I see the shift change just took place at the Big Pharma call center

Got the unrecs from those clocking out and clocking in, I guess?

[Barack_America]

34. Hardly.

The OP made the mistake of attacking the efficacy of the flu vaccine itself rather than advocating the govt. produce said vaccine instead of buying it from Big Pharma.

Efficacy and cost are separate issues.

[UTUSN]

41. Does K&R count to UNDO UnReKKK count even if outnumbered?!1 n/t

[Odin2005]

43. Unrec if you hate anti-vax hysteria!

[Turborama]

49. OK

Done!

[earth mom]

50. No surprise. Follow the Money.

:puke:

[HuckleB]

51. You mean the entire stock market that's been going up since the Spring?

That might be worth a puke or two. But there is no way to correlate vaccinations to this stock price increase, especially considering the market as a whole.

[Hannah Bell]

52. how can this be? there's no profit in flu vaccines - or so i've been repeatedly told here at DU.

they do it for the loooove.