Can China Help on Afghanistan?

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by Robert Dreyfuss at The Nation: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/499869/can_china_help_on_afghanistan

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. . . Zheng Zeguang, the director general of the Chinese foreign ministry's section on North America, said that China welcomes Obama's rethinking of the war in Afghanistan. "We are quite encouraged by his new approach," he says. "Obama seems to be taking a more comprehensive approach. The US side told us that they believe that military means is not the solution." China, he said, is willing to step in with economic and financial assistance to Afghanistan.

More broadly, China is prepared to become involved more directly in Middle East and South Asian affairs, because it is becoming increasingly dependent on oil and gas imports from the region. Over and over again, Chinese officials told me that Beijing is intensely interested in regional stability. For the second year running, China's oil imports have risen by double digits. "As China moves ahead on the fast track of industrialization, our demand for oil and gas is increasing rapidly," says a top official at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a government thinktank. And most of that increased demand can come only from the Persian Gulf.

Recently, China has tried to assert itself in the Middle East, only to be rebuffed by the United States. Since 2001, China has tried to become a fifth member of the so-called Quartet – the US, Russia, the European Union, and the UN – that is the guiding force behind the road map for a settlement of the Israel-Palestine problem. "Unfortunately, China is not part of the Quartet," says Zheng, of the foreign ministry's North America section. "Personally, I do not understand why China is not included." But a retired Chinese diplomat with wide experience in the Middle East suggests that United States is reluctant to see China play a greater role in the region. Some US analysts, such as Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, have called on the United States to bring China into the Middle East quartet, because China is likely to play a constructive role.

Zheng acknowledges that the United States must continue, at least for now, to take the leading role in the Middle East. "China," he says, "can only play a role commensurate with its influence. The biggest factor In the Middle East is the United States." During the Bush years, China was troubled by the US invasion of Iraq and by President Bush's confrontational policy toward Iran, which inflamed the entire region and drove up the price of oil on world markets. Now, clearly, China hopes that the Obama administration will seek a more cooperative approach in the region that emphasizes diplomacy over military action. China is directly engaged in support of US diplomacy with Iran, though Beijing strongly opposes using pressure and the threat of new UN-imposed sanctions to force Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program. Despite China's opposition to the war in Iraq in 2003, Beijing has taken advantage of the Iraqi government's relative independence now to secure important Iraqi-Chinese oil deals. And, as Chinese officials make clear, China is ready to play a stepped-up role across the region, from Afghanistan to the Israel-Palestine problem.

Yet there are troubling signs. If the US talks with Iran break down, the US and China could find themselves involved in a test of wills . . .


read more: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/499869/can_china_help_on_afghanistan



RD and I were thinking in the same direction today. My take:

Allowing China a Dominant Role in Afghanistan's Future
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7072465&mesg_id=7072465

[Dallassucks016]

1. re

Scary......