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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:19 AM
Original message
How do you feel about the 2010 elections?
Reading that article in the NYT about Glenn Beck 'organizing' is scaring me.

My biggest fear right now is a huge GOP win next year. No matter what I believe about single payer, getting out of Iraq / Afghanistan, opening up the fed, and putting chains on Wall St. I also know that we will loose any real chance at LASTING progress if we loose a lot of seats next year.

We basically have the mid-term election cycle starting now in the media. That's what Palin's book is about. I'm surprised no one has pointed that out. It is not about the content of the book, or what she say's (or doesn't say), her presence on your tv is basically symbolic. This was last weeks news cycle -- to reminding the country that there is one party in power struggling with the day-to-day conservatism of american political institutions, and this chick, running her mouth of freely about the free market, victory, what god thinks, whatever...

Are we really focused on winning next year? Or does the country just care about the superficial level of politics? the day to day, minute to minute developments, that I believe only favors the GOP in the long run.

Big picture for me is even if Obama wins a second term, the country is sort of predisposed to switching leadership at the top every eight years, and if we get another bush/palin/cheney any minor wins we get now are going to get rolled back pretty quickly.
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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
1. Dems will get clobbered
Edited on Sun Nov-22-09 09:21 AM by FreakinDJ
Nancy's stimulous bill will pork filled and the Dem Party will pay the price
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:29 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Sorry - the Republicans have NO answers - they have proposed NO viable alternatives
They have NO game

Except - NO

All Dems have to do is point out how Bush and the GOP Congress fucked things up.

Oh yeah - Nancy Pelosi's "Porkulus" = RW talking points

:puke:

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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. You can argue all you want - the outcome will be the same
Try to invision we are on the same side here first

But the local paper has been citing example after example of pure pork pets in that bill. They come out with a new example almost every week and this has been for 8 months now. As we lead up to the next election those examples will be embellished and distorted even more. Great Fuel for a fire storm of resentment by the double digit unemployed.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. Our local paper reported all the good things that happened in my community and state
because of the stimulus bill.

They were good things that really supported our local economy and people could see folks that had jobs because of it.

Doom and Gloom sucks!

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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:53 AM
Response to Reply #7
16. I agree "Doom and Gloom" sucks
Edited on Sun Nov-22-09 09:59 AM by FreakinDJ
I'm here in the SF Bay area - one of Obama's strongest $$$$ support areas and I'm just reflecting on what I'm seeing.

Agreed the GOP doesn't have a plan to help America - just themselves back into power. But most people won't see that or realize it until it is too late.

Could the Dems exploit the reality of the GOP seeking to "Help themselves and Fuck-off America" Sure - but it would take one hell of a large budget campaign to turn around the public sentiment at this point. They are unemployed, hurting financially, and being tossed out of their homes through foreclosure. What would you have say to them........
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #16
20. SF that bastion of liberalism is going turn repuke because some RW rag calls the Stim "pork"?
Edited on Sun Nov-22-09 09:58 AM by jpak
and replace Nancy Pelosi with a teabagger?

now i'm scared

:D
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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. All they need is a couple of % of the currently unemployed
Edited on Sun Nov-22-09 10:01 AM by FreakinDJ
to turn around an election

Just how many elections are won by more then 5%
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. Are any those unemployed receiving extended unemployment benefits?
Edited on Sun Nov-22-09 10:12 AM by jpak
Did they get COBRA subsidies- or that $100 a month bonus in UI benefits this summer?

Are they back in school and receiving federal financial aid?

Who was responsible for that?

Repugs?
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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. Would you rather be Unemployed or Working
and while you are suffering the ego crushing, humiliating reality of attempting to live on 1/4 of your normal wages, while the bank is repossessing your home, wondering just here you and your CHILDREN are going to live you have the pleasure of reading about Nancy Pelosie's Pet Project receiving $300 Million to study Field Mice

Hey Jpak - if your some kind of staffer attempting to test the waters for 2010, I suggest you begin polishing your resume
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. That's a dumb question
and a dumb response

"Nancy Pelosie's Pet Project receiving $300 Million to study Field Mice"

is a fucking RW lie that is easily debunked and was

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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:46 AM
Original message
That is a pretty stupid answer
"2004 - 85% of Americans believe Saddam Hussein was involved in 911 attacks"

do you need any more proof?

again try to imagine we are both on the same side of these issues. But the reality is the American voter is not always the best informed. In cases the invoke angry, emotional, responses, more often then not they will hang onto beliefs (true or not) that cause that angry emotional response. They don't want the truth - they'er pissed off.

Once again - I'll say it again. Unless the Dems engage in a ad campaign to bring the truth to light - they'll get clobbered
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:52 AM
Response to Original message
34. It will be pretty easy thing to do, and it will make the repugs look like they lying assholes they R
Edited on Sun Nov-22-09 10:53 AM by jpak
There was no mention of any Nancy Pelosi salt marsh mouse in the stimulus bill.

Show that clown skit a couple of times and they will lose ALL credibility with the low information voters.

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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #34
55. I thing America needs to remember
In 2006 / 2007 prior to the Dems having control of the House, Senate, and Executive Office, the Home Mortgage Crisis was just starting to unfold. Rather then mandate the Banking Industry rewrite much of the faulty loans they originally wrote, Senate and House RATpubliCONs coined the catch phrase "I don't want to Bail Out the Speculators"

What short sighted self serving Cock Suckers.

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ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Memories Are Short & Using Bush Seems To Be Fading... Not Sure That
invoking all the BAD stuff that came down the pike during The Idiot's Admin will have ANY affect!

And if Repukes take over, Democrats have NO ONE TO BLAME BUT THEMSELVES! And Obama can very well be looking at defeat too! I find this overwhelmingly sad because so many of us worked so hard for what we "thought" was going to mean REAL CHANGE!!

Time is ticking away, and waiting is getting OLD!!
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. Are the repukes going to unseat Dems where you are?
I'd like to hear this

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ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. There ARE NO Democrats Where I Live!! Oh Wait... I'm One, But Democrats
who run for office here are ALMOST ALWAYS defeated! We had more Democrats running in 2008 and I think all but one LOST!! And the one that won isn't a big time position! It IS something, but I loved here for 26 years, and it remains REPUKE County!!

So no, I don't think Democrats will be unseated... just NONE elected! AND IF ONE would be elected, you could probably put DINO behind their name or DLC at best!
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #11
18. Thanks - so Dems will not lose any House or Senate seats where you live
This is not symptomatic of Dem rout in the making (in your area at least).

All the Dems in my neck of the woods are safe...
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ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #18
29. Well That's Good Then... The Next Thing Is Whether They're One Who
are doing the "people's" work or who fight for our rights. Many Democrats don't seem to be doing so. At least I see lack of spine and a certain unwillingness to take the other side to task. Not enough push back or calling Repukes out for their tactics and awful behavior!

There's where I'm seeing the "real problem" because we need Democrats who are up to the task of fighting back and pushing harder for what constituents want.

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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #29
36. no...its not the dems fault. the 'waiting' is a part of the institutions of us govmt
the senate is 'designed' to be conservative.

healthcare and foreign policy change were never going to happen overnight, but I dont think the president has done a good job explaining why.

'fighting back' and 'pushing harder' is fine, if it means getting rid of right-leaning / corporate dems, and replacing them with more progressive and rational people, but if it means electing GOP'ers and Beckites, then we are digging a deeper hole that we are not going to get out of.
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RKP5637 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #2
10. Never underestimate what this country is capable of... Bush got in twice and
to not a small number elections are popularity contests, more and more akin to American Idol and similar. Many rely on tabloid news for their definitive sources and not a small number the likes of Palin, Beck and the pack, and what their religion and Fox News tells them to do.

We have a lot of ignorant people in the US when it comes to picking the ones that best serve their interests and the best interests of the country. I never cease to be amazed how the people with the least vote for Rs and the ones most disingenuous to their needs. I think many put their brains in neutral when they vote.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:52 AM
Response to Reply #10
15. Fooled me twice....ummm...don't get fooled again
The GOP ran this country into the ground the last time.

They have no alternatives - except the same old shit they used to run the country into the ground the last time.

Make them run on their record.
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #10
38. agree...
the experiences of 2000 and 2004 are still with me, and I think some people don't see 'the long view' about us politics. maybe the media prevents that...

anyways, anger or charisma gets people to vote. obama can't spend all of next year campaigning, and I hope there are some plans on 'big' appearances to rally support.

or maybe i'm really ignorant of what extent there is a mobilized dem/progressive constituency in the country, because of all this palin/beck b.s. i see on du and on huffington...



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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #1
33. ok thanks.
thanks for your opinion. you obviously have no idea what sort of economic crisis we were in, or what was needed. you obviously know nothing. thanks again.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #33
37. thank you - I obviosuly know nothing
:rofl:
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #37
39. sorry..meant to hit the reply button to the other guy you were replying to.
im dumb...apologies
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #39
41. It's OK
:hi:
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OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:36 AM
Response to Original message
4. The Republicans do not really have to have answers. Angry People
are not rational. The GOP are excellent at exploiting anger
and roiling people up. When people are angry they vote against.
vote against. NOT for Do not vote for. Therefore, the GOP
can win seats not because people vote for them, rather they
were angry and voted against the Democrats.



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RKP5637 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #4
22. Exactly!!! I think this is what we are up against in 2010 and 2012. Angry
people are irrational and if things are not better they will lash out against the Ds even if many know the Rs have no solutions at all. And the Rs will exploit this anger exactly as you say.

We can NEVER be complacent and assume people are going to be rational when they vote in 2010 and 2012. This country is in such a deep mess, but voters will forget about Bush and the horrendous mess he left and will blame Obama and the Ds. This is why the Ds in congress MUST quit arguing and vote in block and move forward. Blue-Dog Ds that think they are staying in if the Rs really move forward are not thinking with a clear head IMO.

All the the arguing in congress amongst the Ds makes the Ds look weak and ineffective IMO.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:10 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. Were the teabaggers successful in scaring Dems in the healthcare debate?
Based on last night's Senate vote...

NOPE!

Fuck the twabaggers

amd fuck the GOP
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RKP5637 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. I'm with you on all of this. Here is what I'm hoping is we're over the hurtle after
last night where the Ds bonded together. Maybe on the massive amount of work required to get this country running again the road will now be a little smoother. How anyone can take Palin, Beck, etc., Fox News and the Rs seriously is beyond me, but they are definitely out there.

Also, Obama and the Ds have now learned well R clearly = the party of NO and with NO solutions. Hopefully the Rs strategies will backfire on them.
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NoPasaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
6. President will impose martial law and cancel elections
Oh wait, that was last year's paranoia.
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Robb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:39 AM
Response to Original message
8. By then we will have been enslaved by the reverse vampires and the Rand Corporation.
/clutches pearls, gnashes teeth and rends garments
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Coyote_Bandit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:49 AM
Response to Original message
12. I anticipate three things happening
(1) I think a number of people - people who voted in the last election - are going to stay home and not vote.

(2) I think there is likely to be a backlash against a number of incumbents - for a wide variety of reasons.

(3) I do think Dems are going to lose some seats. Possibly more than a few.
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #12
40. agree...
hope there is time to buck those trends. im on the fence as to
1) how much obama can get out there and campaign
2) if the employment numbers will get better
3) how much more enraptured the country will be with the GOP / conservative point of view i.e. amnesia

i said in another reply... i think charisma and anger is what works in this political climate. right now I think we have an uphill battle.
unfortunately, I think a big loss next year with cripple Obama, and we are going to be back in Bushland sooner than I hoped.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
13. Sometimes I wonder why some people here
joined the Democratic Underground. If Glen Beck scares you you're not up for the struggle - he's a racist imbecile who has fringe followers.
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #13
31. so was bush

yes, they are idiots, but like i heard spitzer say on rachel maddow, these are the same people that have run government for almost twenty years. being so dismissive about their current form (beck) doesnt mean you are going to get the bigger progressive majority you need to get better bills, quicker action abroad, financial oversight...etc...etc...

what have you learned in the last year? judging from your reply you think we are in a good position in next year's midterms?

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Smarmie Doofus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
14. I *feel* it doesn't make much difference who wins.
Obama is Clinton redux... except more conservative. If Clinton had had Congressional majorities like Obama has/had his first term we could have and probably WOULD have made a lot substantive progress toward solving very real and intractable problems.

Clinton probably *would* have chosen an FDR-style path if he had had the chance. Obama had the chance but simply chose not to. More and more the term "caretaker" comes to mind when i think of this president. He is presiding over a period of relative political stasis sandwiched between two ultra-right RW eras.

I do hope I'm wrong, BTW, but frankly I'm not wrong very often about this sort of thing.

That's what I "feel". I *think* how many seats the DEMS will lose depends largely on the state of the economy in October of 2010.
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #14
42. why do you think obama had the chance?
i agree with your political stasis bw two ultra rw eras...that's my fear. that we are setting ourselves up for an even worse bush in 2016, but we have to do something to counter that.

i dont think we should focus on the top.

its clear to me that our institutions are deeply conservative, probably because of money in politics. in fact, i think if progressives finally focused on getting the money out of government we would do pretty well, and probably get a decent chunk of independents and GOP people also.
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Smarmie Doofus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #42
63. Mainly because this Congress was more progressive....
... than the one Clinton came in with in 93.

59 or 60 senate DEMS depending on how one counts Lieberman as opposed to 56 in 93. Plus the *character* of the DEM caucus is more liberal than it was in 93... since Dixiecrats seats are almost all GOP now. ( Clinton had to contend with such as Sam Nunn holding serious leadership posts in the party and in the senate. Yuck. Those guys are almost all gone.)

The House #s are about the same as they were in '93 but , again, the political character of the DEM caucus is more progressive, for the same reason: GOPers hold a lot of former Dixiecrat seats and real DEMs have made inroads in the north and the west.

Also, Obama's margin of victory was more substantive and more broad-based than Clinton's... who after all won with a lot of help from an essentially conservative third party candidate. And the reason Obama enjoyed a blowout was because the country is/was in such BAD shape... worse by most measures than the Bush recession of 90-92.


>>>ts clear to me that our institutions are deeply conservative, probably because of money in politics. in fact, i think if progressives finally focused on getting the money out of government we would do pretty well, and probably get a decent chunk of independents and GOP people also.>>>

Independents, maybe. But I don't see GOP people working to get money out of politics. It's their bread and butter. Why would they want to?
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
17. We will retain majorities, but they will be smaller majorities.
They will be even less capable of passing legislation.
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OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
19. Crawl at CNN : More Americans blame Democrats for the Recession
Democrats on the Hill cannot avoid TV.and permit the GOP
to 24/7 spew their propaganda and blatant untruths.

There is only one reason the Public now believes the Dems
caused the Recession. They have not fought back effectively.
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endless october Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
28. if Democrats effectively sell a unified message of hope and recovery, they win.
if they can't sell the message, they lose.

the voters typically give one party a lot of power, and then the pendulum swings the other way. my gut tells me the default situation is not a 1994, but that there will be modest Republican gains.

but that's not guaranteed. dynamic Democrat leaders need to start hitting the airwaves and explaining to the American people how they are going to fix the suck ass job market and what their plan is for a return to prosperity.

look, President Obama won an election, and he was dynamic but vague. surely there's someone else out there that can sell it to the American people. i don't think it's Reid or Pelosi, though.

the Republicans lost not only because of the mess they made of the country. they had inept people in charge of selling their message. Democrats need to learn from that and avoid the mistake.

one other thing : making the other side look scary isn't "selling the message," and it doesn't work. voters vote for you when you stand for something. running against a boogeyman is a sure way to lose if you're not standing for something and making that the centerpiece of your platform.

just my two cents.

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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #28
62. I think campaign finance reform should get owned by the Dems
although i know it is hard to push campaign finance reform as the incumbent, i think this is the core issue of so many other concerns
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
30. Incumbents are in danger - both D&R.
and why shouldn't they be?
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DU GrovelBot  Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:47 AM
Response to Original message
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phasma ex machina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 10:56 AM
Response to Original message
35. We basically have the mid-term election cycle starting now in the media.
That's what Palin's book is about.

Thanks for pointing that out. (Too many distractions in my life.)
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #35
43. politics and media
i was tellling someone the other day that it is fascinating that the country seems to love a show like 'mad men' which is all about advertising, yet they dont realize how influential simple PR is in american politics. things like the palin book are simple PR for the GOP. that's all it is. there is a lot of epiphenomena in this country's popular discourse, and it seems to require more and more effort and focus to cut through the BS.

i remember when we got eight democratic candidates for the 2008 election, and everyone was wondering why people were running so early. its really not just about winning, but getting press and media for sustained periods of time. a great question or hypothetical (if i had that sort of freetime) would be to wonder how well barack would have done if he had clinched the nomination too early. the country would not have seen him tested, and maybe not have turned out to vote for him.

unfortunately that is the problem with politics and media in this country, but i dont know how you break that cycle.

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madville Donating Member (743 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
44. The economy and employment will continue to get worse
Edited on Sun Nov-22-09 11:29 AM by madville
and we (the Democrats) are steering the ship now. Of course the republicans don't have any answers but a majority of independents aren't going to keep checking the (D) box just because the republicans did a bad job when they had power three years ago. Memories are short and people want to know what has been done for them lately, not what the other party did before they lost power in 2006. Our biggest threat is low voter turnout, for a few reasons:

- People are going to be pissed when they find out health insurance reform doesn't start to really be implemented until 2013-14.

- There is very little manufacturing coming TO the USA. It is mostly leaving, more jobs everyday. You can't have a recovery with no jobs. They will have to stop unemployment payments at some point.

- People who are dissatisfied with their situation may continue with the "CHANGE" theme from last year and since the Democrats are in power and have been for a few years, all of a sudden they will be the targets when people want change from this point on.

- The proposed health insurance reforms are going to cost everyone money, either by mandating people to buy insurance, tax penalties for those who don't, or by increased premiums on higher deductible plans to cover the inclusion of preexisting conditions. The idea that all this is going to be budget neutral is laughable, it's going to cost billions for the IRS to enforce the mandate every year.

- I'm not convinced the Democrats really want a larger majority, that would mean more responsibility and accountability for all the failures on the horizon. Our economy is screwed.

Hardcore Democrats and republicans are going to vote how they vote and turnout reliably. Middle of the pack people need to be motivated to go to the polls and unfortunately the negatives that will motivate turnout in the years to come will fall on the Democrats shoulders, whether it be motivating someone to vote against them or simply motivating someone to stay home. Even if we lose power again the other side will screw it up and after a few years we will regain it, that's they way it works.

I remember when the Democrats looked cooked after 9/11, freepers were rejoicing that the Democratic Party would never gain power again, the same thing can happen to us.
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quiller4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #44
47. I disagree. Job loss is slowing across the country. In some parts
hiring has already begun. 16 states saw job gains in October. By October 2010we will see substantial improvements in employment and housing. For Republicans to pick up a large number of seats, there need to be not only weak incumbents but a significant number of Democratic retirements. There will be fewer Democrats retiring in 2010 than has been true for a very long time. I believe Republicans will pick up some seats but their gains will be restricted to seats they really should have won in 2008 in districts that went for McCain but where Republicans ran either a weak or damaged candidate.
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madville Donating Member (743 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #47
51. What are those gains based on and which states?
I'm just curious which states are doing better and how those gains are measured? Are they net gains (more jobs were created than lost) or did the unemployment percentage simply go down?
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tjwash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #51
54. Give it a chance there, big guy.
It started with jobs recovery, doubling it with rebuilding infrastructure. That, plus loaning banks additional capital. It's actually been working, with job losses slowing.



Lastly, improving American healthcare led by Congressional Democrats, will actually make jobs recovery a lot easier, since that would take some of the burden off of employers.

Of course nobody counted on the republicans flinging their feces all over the place about it.

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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #47
52. Finally someone who can see what's happening!
job losses have slowed

unemployment is dropping in many states

GDP is now positive

temp hires are up (prelude to full time hires)

foreclosure rates are down

The unemployment numbers are the last thing that come down during a recovery

The recovery is underway and the employment figures will improve next year

:toast:
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #44
48. overall agree...but i think you are missing something crucial
all of these points are valid, and are fears I share but doesnt all of these point to the fact that Money In Politics is the big problem.

Money in Politics is the underlying problem in all of these issues - continued ignorance of manufacturing, weak health care reform, screwed economic priorities

ok fine, lets assume we lose next year, obama is screwed, and we get another bush. im not afraid of being realistic. but as a party, or loose group of progressive voters, shouldnt our priorities be focused on campaign finance reform (and basic survival)
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
45. There are a year away
A lot happens in a year.
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madville Donating Member (743 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #45
49. Will things get better in the next year?
That's the real question.

Will manufacturing come back to the US? (No)

Will we still be in Iraq and Afghanistan? (Yes)

Will health insurance reform get passed? (probably)

Will people be upset when health insurance reform doesn't kick in for 3-4 years? (absolutely)

Does any of this help the Democrats? (No)

I don't think we will see many people who voted Democrat last year switch to the republicans but I do think many will simply not be motivated vote.

I'm also curious to see what happens with the commercial real estate implosion slated for 2010. There are a bunch of defaults on the horizon, be prepared for yet another bailout of the banking industry.
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #45
50. it took two years of campaigning to get obama into office
i dont think we should sit by and let the beckistans take over.

personally, i think campaign finance reform is clearly the way forward in politics. i think the weakness of this round of healthcare reform just reinforces how conservative our government is designed to be.
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YvonneCa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
46. I feel like we'd better wake up. We didn't in 2000...
...and eight years of hell ensued. My thoughts (posted yesterday):

We Democrats need to remember what we have been fighting for. After the past eight years under GWB, the country was headed TOTALLY in the wrong direction...on every issue. EVERY issue. And they are important issues:

Getting it right in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Living up to our country's values.
Stopping illegal spying.
Health care Reform.
Changing energy policy/Climate Change.
Getting our economy on track.
Education.
Etc. Etc.


But our goal in 2004 was not JUST to elect John Kerry. We fought to elect a president who would start to turn the country around.

The goal in 2006 was not JUST to grow Democratic Party support in Congress (which we did). We fought to grow a Congress that would enact the needed changes to turn the country around.

The goal in 2008 was not JUST to elect Barack Obama President (which we also did ). We worked hard to elect a president who would start to turn the country around.

We are in a better place today because we unified around our goal and fought hard to make it a reality. No matter which issue was our 'favorite' issue, we kept our "eyes on the prize." Obama's election was no accident. Nor did it happen 'magically'. It took determination, stamina, perseverance, relentless effort and FOCUS from Democrats of all stripes.

We Democrats have much to be proud of. I believe we WILL get health care reform this time around. But we haven't yet reached our most important goal. For 2010, we SHOULD grow Congress again... not JUST because we want more Democrats there, but because THAT is how we will turn the country around.

Eyes on the Prize...


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tjwash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
53. Congress members need to be concentrating on fixing the economy now, rather than getting reelected
They deserve to get voted out otherwise.

*Unrelated*...damn, your post sure has brought a lot of right wing shills oozing AM-radio talking points to this thread. I wonder how many paid rw propagandists have joined DU since January?
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LWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 12:36 PM
Response to Original message
56. Democrats will suffer big losses.
Republicans are good at rallying the troops for a comeback, and Democrats have alienated their base by pandering to the dlc/centrist/corporatist/"new" democrats.
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Naturyl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
57. Beck's audience is the teabaggers.
The GOP in general is still having a meltdown. The teabaggers alone won't be enough to elect anyone on the national stage. They will need the rest of the GOP base, and with any luck, the others won't play ball.
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Proud Liberal Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
58. Hard to say at this point
There are a lot of variables that will determine what happens in 2010. Here are some things to think about (in regards to the Republicans) however:

1.)The GOP is currently beset by internal problems, most notably the conflict between its "establishment" members and the "teabagger" crowd who thinks that even the "establishment" Republican is not "conservative" enough. Even some reliably conservative Republicans like Rep. Mark Souder (IN-4) are facing primary challenges. If the GOP gets several of their "establishment" candidates primaried, even if they ultimately win, they could be weakened in the GE against Democratic incumbents whom might have defeated easier.
2.)The GOP is not polling well, at least not as well as they were in 1994, and they really have no "alternative" agenda other than opposition to President Obama nor do they have any particularly charismatic or effective leadership like they did in 1994 (i.e. Newt Gingrich- which is kind of hard to believe nowadays). Our candidates need to FORCE the Republicans to explain what their agenda/plan for the country (i.e. how are THEY going to help create jobs, provide healthcare, etc.). Something tells me that opposition to President Obama is simply not (hopefully) going to be enough for them to win. People may have issues with the current health care legislation or one thing or another that Obama is doing but the Republican's plan for health care is an absolute farce and their *plan* for just about everything else is likely not going to be different than what they have been proposing/implementing for the past 8 years- and we've all seen the effects of their agenda. I just hope people's memories are really not THAT short! :eyes:
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LeftishBrit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
59. I opened this because I was thinking of the General Election in Britain...
it's very likely that the Tories will win and I'm dreading it. But the last poll showed Labour closing the gap somewhat, so here's hoping! I hope your congressional ones go well too!
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #59
61. best of luck to labour also
I'm sure a Tory win will get big press over here "Is this a global shift to the right" and all that. I know Brown has not been a great PM, but it would be a shame to lose a partner in the UK. Not following close enough to say much else.

Plus I'm watching The Thick of It as I type this, and love the show so much. There is no way someone in the US could pull off a show like this here.
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-22-09 01:37 PM
Response to Original message
60. we'll get MORE democrats.....people want change and the only way to do that is with more dems
the republicans don't have shit
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