According to MSNBC and a poll from Marist, Guiliani would beat Gillibrand by 14

[rockymountaindem]

How is that possible? I know Guiliani is popular but I also thought Gillibrand would have more traction than that.

[Captain Hilts]

1. He must know that. He bailed in 2000 because polls showed he would have lost. nt

[rockymountaindem]

2. That's what they were just talking about

They said the polls showed him losing handily to Cuomo for the Gubernatorial race, so he's going for Gillibrand because his chances are much better, evidently.

[Johonny]

3. this early in polling name recognition means more than anything

Gillibrand has yet to run a statewide campaign of any kind and is basically unknown to the voters.

[lapfog_1]

5. Bingo.

Clinton, Ghouliani, and Cuomo are all highly recognized names.

Gillibrand, not so much.

That said, when it comes time to vote, name recognition will still count for a lot.

[Captain Hilts]

7. This is VERY true. And upstate still hates NYC. nt

[WI_DEM]

4. This is the problem we have going into '10--I don't think we will lose the senate

but I've seen several dems in supposedly blue states who are in trouble: Gillibrand in NY, Dodd in CT, It's really a toss-up in DE with Beau Biden. Specter may or may not win in PA. Even Obama's home state of IL could be close if you go by recent polls. If Tommy Thompson challenges Feingold here in WI the polls show it would be tight.

[Captain Hilts]

8. I like to think in DE they'll realize it's stoopid to elect a freshman senator that old. nt

[EarlG]

6. Goodbye Bradley Effect...

...hello Giuliani Effect.

Giuliani Leads GOP Contenders in CNN Poll
July 31, 2007 5:01 PM

The latest ABC News-Washington Post poll found presidential hopeful former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani the top choice for Republicans and conservative-leaning independents.

Giuliani was the pick for 38 percent of those surveyed, followed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., with 18 percent.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2008/blog/2007/07/giuliani_leads_gop_contenders.html

[rockymountaindem]

9. Except that at this point the people of NY *know* Giuliani

The rest of the country needed to become familiar with him before they came to the correct conclusion. New York doesn't have that excuse.

[Historic NY]

10. they didn't ask Democrats.