FL-Sen: Bombshell results

[WI_DEM]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/16-18. Likely voters MoE 4% (1/26-28 results)

Republican Primary

Charlie Crist (R) 47 (57)
Marco Rubio (R) 37 (4)



That's a 43-point swing in the last 10 months. Dramatic. Now we wanted to know where Rubio's support was coming from, and so we decided to see if there was a correlation between the birthers -- the craziest of the GOP's base -- and this primary.

Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America, or not? (Asked only of GOP primary voters)

Yes 35
No 29
Not Sure 36

Was Obama born in US?
Yes No Not sure
Crist 73 31 33
Rubio 16 54 45



Wow. Clear correlation. The crazier the Republican, the better Rubio does. Of the sanest Republicans -- those who don't buy into the crazy birther conspiracy theories, only 16 percent support Rubio compared to the whopping 73 percent who support Crist. The governor's problem is that only 35 percent of Florida Republicans fall under that category. Note the birther crosstabs for both the general and GOP primary election samples -- the general election sample is less crazy, with 57 percent of Republicans saying Obama was born in the US, compared to 35 percent of likely GOP primary voters.

These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there's little chance of him surviving. Remember, Rubio hasn't spent a dime on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the teabaggers are engaged, angry, and looking for the next Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him, and failing. Note -- 50 percent of Republicans still don't know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does.

We decided to see how Crist would perform in a general election as a Republican, Democrat, and Independent:

All likely voters

Crist (R) 50
Meek (D) 33

Rubio (R) 30
Meek (D) 38



Don't get too excited with those Rubio/Meek numbers. 40 percent of Republicans are inexplicably "undecided" on that question. They'd come home.

Now for the hypotheticals:

Crist (I) 32
Rubio (R) 27
Meek (D) 31

Rubio (R) 34
Crist (D) 45



The three-way matchup is a statistical dead-heat, with the biggest undecided block being Democrats. Independents break 45% Crist, 27% Meek, and 22% Rubio. That would be an almost exact replay of NY-23.

On the two-way matchup with Crist as a Democrat, a third of Democrats are undecided. They'd like proof that Crist was a real Democrat, I'm sure. But ultimately, most would come home rather than give the birther-teabagger candidate the Senate seat. A quarter of independents are also undecided, though I won't pretend to guess what they'd do. Those who know what they want break 40 percent for Crist, 34 percent for Rubio.

If I'm Charlie Crist, I realize that I'm toast in the Republican primary. I note that a three-way race is a coin flip at best. But as a Democrat... switching parties and making an earnest transition on the issues would be the cleanest path to a Senate seat.

Whether we'd want him as a Democrat is another story, and one that would depend heavily on how he managed his party switch. But it's clear that he's no longer welcome in his own party. And he has a choice to make -- remain as a hated interloper in his existing party, or try to find a more hospitable home elsewhere.

p.s. We also polled the governor's race -- it's a dead heat between Republican Bill McCollum (35), Democrat Alex Sink (33), and Undecided (32).

http://www.dailykos.com/

[FBaggins]

1. The 43 points is likely almost all name recognition.

As for a final race? I expect them to work something out if Rubio gets too much support. There are two statewide races that year. I'd bet Crist for Senate and Rubio for Gov. I don't see a party switch as very likely for Crist.

He's moderate enough for the RW to call him a "rino" - but he's not a Democrat.

[gcomeau]

2. I'd attribute the vast majority of that swing...

...to the fact that 10 months ago a large percentage of respondants to that poll would have said "Marco who?" and the other guy in the poll was the extremely well known governor of the state.

So basically, meh. Of course the numbers were going to move a great deal.

[jjray7]

3. might want to check the math

Was Obama born in US?
Yes No Not sure
Crist 73 31 33
Rubio 16 54 45

Each lines adds up to in excess of 100%. Crist is 137%, Rubio 115%.

[FBaggins]

4. You're reading that backwards

That isn't "of the people who supported Crist... how many believed X,Y,Z" it's "of the people who believe 'X' - how many supported each candidate. Of the people who believe 'Y' how many supported each candidate... etc."

So Rubio has a lead among the birthers.

[csziggy]

5. I think the percentages are for each group and who they support

People who believe that "Yes" Obama was born in the US - 73% would vote for Crist, 16% for Rubio; "No" 31% for Crist, 54% for Rubio; Not sure if Obama was born in the US, 33% for Crist, 45% for Rubio. That makes more sense in terms of the percentages, though the table is put together poorly and the formatting mess that we get here does not help.