French Bank tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'

[Nikki Stone1]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years....

...Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade....

(More at the link)

[kimmerspixelated]

1. Perhaps the COP-15 meeting will help?

[Truth2Tell]

42. I find that meetings of groups with acronyms

followed by numbers always cause things to improve drastically.

[cutlassmama]

2. buy gold and silver

[Ignis]

26. Sod that. Buy seeds and bullets, if you must.

If US society collapses to the point that you need solid metals to weather the storm, most people are going to be much more worried about food than bank balances.

[Nikki Stone1]

36. Canned goods and ammo, eh?

There is an ammo shortage right now.

[Ignis]

40. True enough.

I'm just not convinced of the need for hard metals.

We've become incredibly dependent on large-scale, petroleum-based transportation to feed much of the population, so if things go south as quickly and badly as some fear, starvation will be a much larger factor than I've seen in any of these analyses/papers/whatnot.

And when starvation is a major factor, the liquidity (and local value) of hard metals isn't a sure thing. Look at Africa in the '60s-'80s for many tragic examples of this.

[Nikki Stone1]

41. So having land, a garden, canned goods--

But what if you can't shoot?

[Ignis]

43. Find hungry friends with guns but no gardening experience.

:D

Look, I'm not a fan of doomsday scenarios, because I know how they end: Badly for anyone without the money, connections, and liquidity to get the hell out of Dodge at the first sign of collapse. And that's the vast majority of us who haven't the requisite silver spoon. :(

A libertarian-esque focus on rugged individuality will just survivalists killed by someone with a bigger gun, a bigger crew, longer range, or more bullets. The real currency in the event of a societal collapse is community.

[Nikki Stone1]

27. "Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out"

Not sure if I buy this but....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579/Barrick-shuts-hedge-book-as-world-gold-supply-runs-out.html

Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out
Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world's top producer Barrick Gold.

Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.

"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London....

[AllentownJake]

3. 3---2---1 till the Cheerleaders start demanding for Freedom Toast and Freedom Fries again

:rofl:

[Nikki Stone1]

13. Freedom Toast?

:rofl:

(I knew about the fries, but the toast too?)

[AllentownJake]

17. Shit there were assholes renaming the kissing

:rofl:

[Nikki Stone1]

19. Freedom kissing?

Really?

Good god. Some people need a life.

[Ignis]

25. Pardon my Freedom, but ...

Fuck those jingoistic morons. :evilgrin:

[MrsCorleone]

4. Oooh, soooo scary.

:rofl:

[ixion]

5. "state rescue packages over the last year...

have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems."

This is, of course, why I was distinctly opposed to a bailout, and why I considered it a daylight robbery.

"transferred private liabilities"... got that?

[Nikki Stone1]

7. Bingo and right on!

It was a ripoff of the taxpayer

[NoUsername]

44. Thank God it passed!

Sorry. I couldn't resist. :evilgrin:

Anybody that had at least two firing neurons was opposed to the bailout for reasons which should be obvious by now.

[PassingFair]

6. "avoid wealth destruction" !

Too late.

What do I do to avoid MY destruction?

[earth mom]

8. Don't look now but this thread went from 5 recs to 4 by the time I logged in.

I'm so damn sick of people trying to control information! Because whether any of us likes it or not, the truth is the truth!

The utter stupidity of some people on DU totally reminds me of freeperville. :argh:



But back to the OP, thanks for posting, this is pretty damning information on the current state of the world economy. :yoiks:


edited to add that by the time I wrote my post, this thread was back down to 4! :grr:

[AllentownJake]

9. Back to 5

[earth mom]

10. Thank you! You rock!

:yourock:

[Nikki Stone1]

12. Yes he does.

:)

[Nikki Stone1]

I knew there was a reason I liked you.

:)

[Nikki Stone1]

11. I knew there was a reason I liked you.

:)

[malaise]

14. Rec

and Kick

[truedelphi]

15. Societe generale says that in the USA we will see

125pc debt in the US

Which was the amount of debt our Federal government assumed during World War II. But during that crisis, everyone was working. You were if a male, probably in a branch of the service, and if a woman, you were manning the rivet guns in the factories.

This is going to be a very different scenario - and if people are not working, I imagine that there will be out and out Civil War.

[AllentownJake]

16. We also were the only nation that had working factories

after the war.

[truedelphi]

18. Our current trade deficit just went up another 18+ percentage points

The dollar's being discounted is always excused by Admin people as a plus - They say it means we can ship products out - but what products are left for exporting?

[AllentownJake]

21. The problem with that theory is that we aren't now dependent on things

like oil or other commodities from overseas. You get less commodities for $1, increasing your production cost at the same time.

Tariffs are much more effective than devaluing your currency.

[Nikki Stone1]

22. Entertainment? (Cheap DVDs)

Maybe we'll become like Afghanistan and grow illegal drugs (pot) as a cash crop.

[truedelphi]

23. I had friends who went touring through Eastern Europe right after

The Wall came down. And they were amazed how many Hungarian farmers were thinking of turning to pot as a cash crop. I didn't follow the story and don't know if local laws came in to replace the Old Soviet anti-drug laws.

But it is not a bad start.

[Nikki Stone1]

24. That may be why there is talk of legalization.

So much else has been outsourced.

[AllentownJake]

29. There is talk of legalization because the state governments are running out of money

and it would be a nice source of tax revenues. Plus it could lighten their prison populations that they are paying a fortune to outside entities to run.

Think Casinos 30 years ago, all it takes is one state to make money and every other state will want to make that money.

[Nikki Stone1]

30. Yep.

So which state goes first?

[AllentownJake]

31. Nevada or Vermont

Nevada has a history of profiting off of sin and Vermont because well...it is full of snow boarding potheads who worship Phish.

[Nikki Stone1]

34. Vermont=snowboarding potheads? Who knew?

It always seemed so irritating and sexually frustrated. ;)

[Flaneur]

37. There will be a legalization initiative on the California ballot next year.

There are legalization bills filed in California and Massachusetts.

Denver has already voted to legalize it (although local authorities ignore that), and the Colorado ski town of Breckenridge voted to legalize it a couple of weeks ago.

The Marijuana Policy Project has tried twice to legalize it in Nevada, but hasn't gotten over the top yet. They may be back again in 2012.

There's a legalization initiative getting underway in Michigan, but it has no big funding.

[Nikki Stone1]

38. I was thinking California might be first.

Of course, I thought we'd trounce Prop 8 too.

[bertman]

33. What about Australia, the parts of Russia that were not invaded, South American nations,

some of the Balkans nations that were not destroyed?? Canada? That statement sounds a bit "iffy" to me, Jake.

[AllentownJake]

35. Ok, that was a bad brush statement

We had more factories and industry than Canada, Australia is pretty far away at the time for exporting, South America wasn't really that developed, the Balkans and Russia weren't really trading partners for manufactured goods outside of their spheres of influence.

[Nikki Stone1]

20. That would explain the security state being put into place

And "Homeland Security"

[Truth2Tell]

28. Recommended, for use of the phrase, "shot their fiscal bolts." nt

[Nikki Stone1]

39. LoL!!!!!!!!!!!!

:)

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Lorien]

45. Private equity firms such as the Carlyle Group will have a hand in creating

the meltdown: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120391729