So, as of today, who's most likely to win the Republican nom in 2012?

[smoogatz]

I know it's (way) early for this kind of speculation, but I can't resist. Here they are, in the order that my brain crapped them out:

Oh, hell. Forgot the Huckster. More likely than Ron Paul, probably...

[SteppingRazor]

1. I wouldn't count out Huckabee. n/t

[flvegan]

6. He was down here in Florida today, matter of fact.

Definitely do not count him out.

[cbdo2007]

10. Yep, pretty sure it's going to be between him and Mitt.

Which one of those is the lesser of two evils?

[SteppingRazor]

11. In as much as he would be better for an Obama win, I'd take Huckabee.

A run against Mitt would be way tougher.

[smoogatz]

19. Mitt splits off the fundies

and the far right loons. He's way too moderate for the Beck/Lmbaugh/Palin wing.

[SteppingRazor]

24. Conversely, he's moderate enough to snipe some independents from Obama.

No, I think Huckabee's the best bet for an Obama win. Better to have all the far-right loons voting for Huckabee than to have some would-be Obama voters defecting to the other side.

[smoogatz]

55. Maybe.

Although you really divide the Republicans neatly in two if it's Mittens v. Palin v. Obama. And I doubt that in any side-by-side comparison Mittens will siphon off that many independent voters: to left-leaners he's going to look wooden, slow-witted and ill-informed compared to Obama, and he'll look like a triangulating weasel to right-leaners compared to Palin. He's really a singularly unappealing guy, IMO, which is why he did so poorly in '08. Huckabee has a bit of charisma and a kind of folksy charm--he's relatively quick on his feet and knows how to frame an issue effectively, even if at heart he's a total fundie loon. But Huck will never get through the party gate-keepers--they'll find a way to sink him, just as they did last year. IMO, obviously.

[SteppingRazor]

56. After Bush, I will never again doubt how many independents can be taken in...

by the "Hey, how come our government isn't run just like a business?" idea. Bush's MBA, and the idea that he would be a sort of CEO of America, brought quite a few indies to the fold. You have to remember that, for a lot of independents, there is no "right leaning" or "left leaning." There is only "who can get the job done," regardless of where that candidate's ideology will take the country.

For those independents who count themselves as fiscally conservative and socially moderate or liberal (which is a massive chunk of the independent vote), Mitt Romney will be an appealing candidate.

[smoogatz]

59. Bush's election in 2000 was pretty flukey.

The influence of the Monica factor can't be overstated--nor can Al Gore's inept campaign, and I say that as a huge Al Gore fan. And of course there's Florida, and Nader, etc. The thing that's going to kill Romney in '12 is that he'll have to run hard to the right in the primaries, and then, if he wins, convince all those socially moderate-to-liberal indies that he was just kidding. That's going to be a tough sell in the YouTube era: good luck wit dat, as the young folks say. Plus, as I said above, if Mittens wins the R nom, I'd be very surprised if Palin didn't end up mounting an indie campaign, claiming she'd been unfairly shut out of the process by the RNC money boyz. The far right would flock to her like flies to dogshit, leaving Mittens to cobble together a moderate coalition after having spent seven months trying to play wingnut roulette with Palin and Huckabee. Palin really is the magic monkeywrench that's going to screw up the works of the Republican national electoral strategy for years and years to come.

[SteppingRazor]

60. I totally agree that if Palin mounts an indie campaign, the right is done.

A more-ideological candidate running to the extreme of the consensus candidate is always an easy win for the other side. (Speaking of Nader ... )


Also, completely agree that Bush's win in 2000 was due to a number of factors, not the least of which was outright fraud. All good points.

[SteppingRazor]

17. Yeah, and if he's not hanging with us Floridians, then he's in Iowa or NH. n/t

[flvegan]

23. Sadly Beck and Palin are following him up, IIRC.

It's like our state got a bad case of the stupids this week.

[SteppingRazor]

34. Yeah. And I'm sure it's just coincidence that Palin's tour is taking her through every swing state.

:eyes:

[Broken_Hero]

7. Agreed,

my $ would be on Huckabee for the GOP nom in 2012.

[SteppingRazor]

Hell, my money was on him for the 2008 nomination...

I wrote somewhere (my old blog, I think, or maybe HuffPo) way back in Jan. 2007 that the 2008 race would be between Obama, who had just gotten in the race, and Huckabee, who was polling at like 10 percent at the time. I at least give myself credit for calling a Huckabee surge (he did come in second to McCain, after all), and I think that this time, with McCain out and with Huckabee having many of the folksy qualities of Sarah Palin without all of the obvious stupidity, the Second Man From Hope will be a good bet.

On edit: It was on my old blog. Here's a link if you're interested:
http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/2007/01/your_choice_for_08_mike_huckab.html

[Broken_Hero]

20. I thought it would be Rudy, or Huck

I was surprised it came down to Mitts/McCain, I didn't see that one coming. Huck is getting more airtime now, and he hits all the usual RW crack pot rhetoric, I give him til late 2010 before you start seeing him pushing himself into the GOP limelight(again).

[timeforpeace]

2. I would. They won't just concede it to Obama next time. Romney without a doubt.

[LuvNewcastle]

8. +1

[virgogal]

3. What's with the "grandpa" comment about Thompson?

[smoogatz]

12. He's old.

And sleepy.

[virgogal]

21. He's 10 years younger than EMK was and age didn't seem to slow

him down.

[smoogatz]

25. Sorry--EMK?

He's actually not as old as he looks--it's more his affect. He's just kind of out of it.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. Palin, if she runs, will push the field right because right wing Conservatives will dominate the

primary.

In a contest for the vote of the far right, Palin wins. In order to beat her with the fringe base, everyone must be farther right than she is.

Romney will be viewed as too liberal.

[WI_DEM]

5. If the nut right gets there base out--Sarah Palin.

[FSogol]

9. Sarah won't win, but she'll drive the entire party further to the right and destroy any reasonable

front runner. That will allow some other wing nut to wing the nomination. Huckabee?

[Soylent Brice]

13. Zombie Reagan. n/t

[USA_1]

14. PALIN-COULTER FOR THE REPUKEBLICANS!!!

[smoogatz]

15. I think Mittens will win, but if he does it'll split the party

You'll see Palin run as the Conservative Party candidate, with God-knows-who as running mate. Ron Paul, maybe, or some other populist rabble-rouser--or maybe some ex-military type to lend a bit of kick-ass cred.

[harun]

28. That would be very very interesting if it happened but I don't think

there is any chance of it.

Conservatives know their ideology can't win the majority of minds. They need to appeal to the batsh*t crazies with wedge issues, get them all under one tent, then get voted in that way.

That won't work if they split up in to a third party. They wouldn't get anywhere near an elected office.

[smoogatz]

35. I check in at freeptardland now and then

which is also teabagger central, obviously. they hate Mittens, and find him suspect on a number of levels. They're also full of seething resentment at the party powers-that-be for foisting McCain on them, who they see as a RINO appeaser. I'm not very good at these kinds of predictions, turns out, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Palin make an indie run if she loses the nom. She's plenty egotistical enough to throw the party under the bus, IMO, especially given her sense of having been wronged in '08 by the party establishment.

[harun]

38. That would be amazing to watch.

[dysfunctional press]

33. palin-north 2012...

:yikes:

[Liberal_in_LA]

16. Huckabees leading the pack

[Bonn1997]

18. John McCain!

[Bobbie Jo]

22. They've. Got. Nothing.

Bwwwwwwhaaaaaa. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[blm]

26. Same answer I had a year ago (unless there's a big scandal uncovered) John Thune.

.

[harun]

27. The Corporate Media will find some other right wing nut to pimp out.

[HughBeaumont]

29. A fascist reactionary asshole.

:shrug:

[old mark]

30. Some yet undiscovered treasure of right wing "thought".

Newt is too much of a shit, Palin too stupid, Mitt too centerist, Paul or Huckabee-maybe the best choices on the list-both proven losers, Fred is just too dull... even for the RW/GOP.

Some new sensational winger messiah awaits - a new adventure in politics...I'm thinking someone openly closer to the KKK segment than anyone previously proposed.
Of course, all the above and more are heartily encouraged to run and spend all the Republican's money and effort in a losing cause.

mark

[dysfunctional press]

31. what about jeb "i'm not my brother" bush?

don't count him out just yet.

[harun]

37. I would consider him more likely than the rest.

[bergie321]

40. I hope not

Every Republican winning ticket has had a Bush or a Nixon on it since Hoover.

[dysfunctional press]

42. but palin's bush was on the losing ticket.

:evilgrin:

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Cosmocat]

36. Mittens or Santorum ...

Santorum gives all three wings of the party the good vibrations ...

Warmonging lunatic
Fundie lunatic
He was the R who ran K street from the senate, so he has the in with big businsss

He also is a very tough and savvy campaigner.

[Nye Bevan]

39. You forgot T-Paw!

Odds from intrade.com. I'm surprised Palin is that high up. BTW my screen was not large enough to capture them all; Santorum *is* on the list, believe it or not.

[smoogatz]

41. God, you're right.

Because he's so freaking boring, probably. Heckuva job on the bridge maintenance, governor.

[Major Hogwash]

43. It's hard to say which one will be on top of the ticket.

But, they are all going to have to show deference to Palin for now.

Huckabee\Palin is my guess.

Palin is tied with Huckabee and Romney "at this juncture".

[ecstatic]

44. Huckabee... for sure... will be the nominee. He scares me the

most because he can hide his batshit insanity for long stretches.

[JohnnyLib2]

45. Mitch McConnell

Watch the positioning.....

[JackRiddler]

46. Out of the better known figures, a Huckabee-Bush ticket seems too fucking real.

[Ter]

48. I doubt Huck liked the Bushes, especially

Since he is moving away from a neo-con and moving toward a right-leaning paleo-libertarian (Ron Paul). That wing HATES the Bushes.

[JackRiddler]

50. It's the way to bring together the coalition they'd need, if they hoped to win.

After McCain and the developments of the last year, the Republicans will have to cater to their teabagger base (which is not quite the same as Ron Paul's following). The more they do so, the worse their chances in a general election. Out of the names we know, the one who has the best personality and philosophy (funny word to use, but hey Reagan had a "philosophy" too) to bridge the divide between establishment and angry right wing seems to be Huckabee. He'll have the right and he can pose reassuringly for the center. But such a deal would need a Bush (or Bush mob made man) on the ticket to cement it. Believe it.

[Ter]

47. Huckabee

He's starting to move to the Ron Paul wing, openly questioning the Federal Reserve and talking about getting the US out of the UN. Ron Paul is getting too old.

[WilliamPitt]

49. Romney, if he can survive the primaries

The big-money wing of the GOP is scared shitless of the Teabaggers, and will throw money at Romney to win back control of the party.

It'll be VERY expensive to get Mitt through the primaries, but I think they'll do what it takes.

[smoogatz]

51. Would Palin mount an indie run, then?

Or would Romney be forced to bring her on board as his VP choice?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

52. 2012 will most like be a "Hail Mary" pass by the Repubs

Methinks that they'll be saving their heavy ammo for 2016. I would put my money on either Huckabee or Romney (or maybe they might run together-Romney for the free market fundies and Huckabee for the religious fundies). However, it is also my opinion that, unless something catastrophic were to occur (Afghanistan REALLY goes to hell in a handbasket, another major terrorist attack on our soil), I believe that President Obama will probably easily win a second term, particularly if he continues to be successful in enacting his agenda (which IMHO he will be). Plus, there is the general "incumbent advantage". Let us also not forget that, despite the fact that the Repubs won Congress in 1994 and Clinton was not as popular as President Obama is (and likely will continue to be), he STILL handily won re-election in 1996. Of course, he ran against an arguably lackluster candidate but the Repubs were at the zenith of their power and still couldn't bring Clinton down. I don't know how they'll bring President Obama down, particularly when the "teabaggers" are targeting moderate and even conservative Repubs in next year's election and will target any potential Repub nominee that they don't consider *conservative* enough for their tastes. Of course, we might have our own problems if our base is depressed next year and/or in 2012 but I have a feeling that, as frustrated as some of us feel right now about some things not getting done fast enough, we will ultimately rally around President Obama in 2012.

[Libertas1776]

53. Hmm, Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson...

Tough decision.

[MilesColtrane]

54. Rick "The Dick" Perry

He's got good hair and Jesus on his side.

[verges]

57. And has talked about secession.

[BlueIris]

58. Petraeus, if they can blackmail him into it.