Republicans heading for a spectacular bloodbath in Florida

[Hepburn]

By David Frum, CNN Contributor
November 16, 2009 6:48 a.m. EST

Editor's note: David Frum, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, was a special assistant to President George W. Bush in 2001-2002. He is the author of six books, including "Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again," and the editor of FrumForum.com

(CNN) -- The Republican fratricide in the Nov. 3 special election in upstate New York may prove just an opening round of an even more spectacular bloodbath in Florida in 2010.

In New York, Republican feuding lost the party a seat in the House of Representatives. At stake in Florida is not only a senatorship -- but very possibly Republican hopes for 2012 as well.

The battle in Florida pits Gov. Charlie Crist against former Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio. Both men claim to be conservative, pro-life, tax cutters. On the issues, they would seem to agree far more than they disagree.

But on one issue they have disagreed passionately: President Obama's fiscal stimulus. Squeezed by his state's desperate fiscal condition, Crist endorsed and campaigned for the Obama stimulus. Inspired by his conservative ideology, Rubio opposed stimulus.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/16/frum.gop.florida.crist.rubio.battle/

I do agree with the article that these smaller races are a preview of what is coming for the Pubblies. IMO, they appear to have marginalized themselves to where the mainstream Pubbie is somewhere to the right of Mao.

Rubio is the darling of conservatives. He is giving the keynote at next year's annual CPAC conference. While the most vocal and most organized part of the Repuke Party may love him and are willing to cut out the middle of the road Pubbies, people like Rubio have little appeal, IMO, to those in the middle -- the Independents -- who are necessary for wins. And, most importantly, Rubio Pubbies do not have appeal across the board to those who usually vote Repuke.

JMHO

[KharmaTrain]

1. See What Purity Gets You?

We're headed to a similar game here in Illinois as the teabaggers aren't too crazy about Mark Kirk...who they think is a RINO cause he supported the stimulus bill. The state GOOP has been in shambles and a primary is sure to be messy. I saw the national trend toward "libertarians" here more than 4 years ago and they along with the dittoheads are going to be Mikie Steele's worst nightmares next spring. The divide is starting to create a Catch-22...if you're "pure" or a "true conservative", you're going to lose...and the big money rushpublicans can't afford much more losing especially if it means pulling the party further from the mainstream.

Democrats shouldn't sit on their hands...their job will be just as daunting next year. Being the incumbent majority party, they now own every little thing about it from the economy to bank bailouts to healthcare to Afghanistan and Iraq and the list grows long. We're already seeing those on this side who are set to put up their own purity tests and with knives trained more at Democrats than at any rushpublican threat. Also, Democrats will have to play defense...not always their strongest suit in elections...there aren't that many red or purple districts let they can win (unless there are internet splits). There are some gains that can still be made in the Senate, but the House races will be tough. Thus stay tuned...the fun is just about to begin.

[Hepburn]

2. Thanks for the up date on Illinois.

What do you think of the impact of holding Gitmo detainees there? I am thinking that anyone who gets a job and the businesses that prosper, are going to come over to the Dem side. If the RW Pubbies are nutso vocal as they can be about those dangerous people being on US soil, yada, yada, and the local economy is boosted, IMO, they are going to hurt themselves even more.

Ideological purity is interesting ~~ but pedantically following a line, IMO, can lead to total disaster. Especially when the extremists take control.

Again, thanks for the post...:hi:

[KharmaTrain]

4. Letting The Talking Points Dissipate...

The news reports last night were fairly down the middle on this...as I think most people are. First...the jail in question is 250 miles from Chicago...out in the cornfields. It's a depressed area where local officials were the ones who asked to be considered...and this is the state that is home to Manuel Noriega and others at the supermax facility at Menard. I heard one joker worry that we'd be over-run by Al Queda on visiting day, but for the most part, those freaking out are scared of their own shadows these days.

There's a big disconnect...the very vocal right wing that dominates hate radio and the cable chatter, thus the spin and pandering is amplified. By claiming the problem isn't "Conservatism" but the rushpublican party, we'll need to import corn for all the popcorn we'll be munching on in the months ahead.

We're still a year from when the real judgements of of Democrats and President Obama will truly begin during the final weeks of the mid-terms. That judgement day for rushpublicans will come far sooner...NY-23 was the first shot, not the last...and it'll get noisier through the primaries.

Always a pleasure reading your posts as well...

:hi:

[Gman]

3. In the U.S. a political party is a coalition of likeminded groups and people

A political party also has a set of general values. Some agree with all the values, some disagree with some of them. People that invoke "our values" when speaking of their party can only have a mouse in their pockets as they surely do not speak for everyone else in a party.

[Hepburn]

5. Excellent point....

...people do coalesce around general, core values ~~ especially in consideration that in the US there truly are only two major parties. To cut out those who do not support 100% of what the dictated points by a minority = disaster IMO.

I have a close friend who is VERY liberal on social issues and pretty conservative on fiscal issues. He used to consider himself a "Reagan Republican" many years ago. Now? He has registered an Independent. He feels he has nowhere to go. And, yes, I am still working on him ~~ not too long ago he became anti-death penalty which when I first met him 10 years ago, I would have never imagined that he could ever have that POV.

:hi:

[KharmaTrain]

6. The Squeeky Wheel Theory...

You are spot on when you look at the bigger picture...what wins general elections. However primaries have become litmus tests...opportunities for a minority to have a lot of influence on a party's political agenda. What I've noticed is many teabaggers are Paulbots...so-called "Libertarians" who are the wild cards in many of these primary battles. Kentucky's Senate primary could be a real fun one to watch as Paul's son is challenging one of Pruneface McConnell's cronies (after they forced Bunning to the showers). Texas governor will be another fun primary as will Florida Senate. The purity game will divide rather than unite as small groups who do weigh in during the primaries will alienate as many as they will attract during the general.

I'm extremely dubious of anyone who uses the word "we" in describing what a Democrat or Progressive is. Too many of us fought hard to avoid the lock-step, dead-end games of the rushpublicans and to embrace diversity that comes with being a majority party.

Cheers...

[WeDidIt]

7. The absolute beauty of it all is, Steele will be the scapegoat!

They'll eat their own when it comes to placing the blame and be even more divided come 2012.