Just a reminder - US GDP from 4th quarter 2008 to 3rd quarter 2009

[jpak]

US GDP 4th quarter 2008 NEGATIVE 6.2% (-6.2%)

US GDP 1st quarter 2009 NEGATIVE 6.1% (-6.1%)

US GDP 2nd quarter 2009 NEGATIVE 0.7% (-0.7%)

US GDP 3rd quarter 2009 POSITIVE 3.5% (+3.5%)

Discuss

[Robb]

1. OK.

2.36% was consumer spending. Cash for clunkers made up a full percentage point of that.
1.22% of it was investment -- half of that was residential construction.
Increases in gov't spending account for .48%.

We can apparently also shave off about .4% of the whole thing for an incorrect guess on the trade deficit, which turned out to be much larger than the Q3 GDP estimate assumed.

[jpak]

2. Another reminder: US job losses January 2009 = 598,000, September 2009 = 263,000

n/t

[paulk]

3. great news!

unless, of course, one of those 263,000 jobs yours...

[jpak]

5. The tide is turning

is it not?

[paulk]

9. I don't know, really

If we are into a "recovery", it is still a jobless one, with unemployment high enough that it itself is affecting that "recovery". We could just as easily slip into a "W" shaped recession as continue on an upward slope.



Obama's economic plan is still too heavily weighted toward the supply side, imho. When jobs start being created instead of lost, then I'll applaud - and if that doesn't seem fair, considering that jobs are a lagging indicator, etc., well, it's hard to be objective about these things when your own personal situation remains the same.

[Veruca Salt]

12. I thought we were already in a 'W' shaped recession

;-)

[geckosfeet]

4. Like changing a planets orbit. It will take time and a lot of shoveling against the tide.

[Robb]

6. Indeed. A chart or two:

[jpak]

7. Ummm - total unemployment ALWAYS lags in ANY recovery

Show a chart of monthly job losses from January 2009 to September 2009 and you will see the bleeding has stopped and the trends reversed.

GDP growth will reduce total unemployment next year.

yup!

[Robb]

8. Well, yes.

But GDP growth doesn't affect unemployment. If employment in sectors that produce things counted in GDP rises, GDP will grow.

[geckosfeet]

10. On the x axis, 1980 and every fifth year is repeated twice.

Probably not a huge factor on the presentation, but it adds four extra years.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

11. Do you hava a source for this info? n/t

[tritsofme]

13. From the horse's mouth:

http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=1&FirstYear=2008&LastYear=2009&Freq=Qtr

[HCE SuiGeneris]

14. Thanks. n/t