Why Pres. Obama will probably win in 2012

[FarLeftFist]

These are who Fox news predicts to run in 2012 for the GOP from their article today.

--Palin, the 2008 vice presidential nominee who resigned as governor of Alaska, is starting a national media tour to promote her book, "Going Rogue." Eager to show her conservative credentials, she recently endorsed grassroots-backed conservative Doug Hoffman over the Republican-supported candidate in an upstate New York congressional race. Hoffman lost to Democrat Bill Owens in the long-time Republican district but an undeterred Palin told conservative activists, "The cause goes on."

--Pawlenty, who was on McCain's vice presidential short list, decided not to run for a third term as Minnesota governor. He's been methodically building an expansive political operation with Washington-based campaign veterans while working to raise his national profile and taking on Obama often. Pawlenty is a conservative, but he's tacked even further right recently, including backing Hoffman.

--Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who lost the primary battle to McCain, has kept a lower profile than others. He's carefully chosen when to insert himself into national politics. The former businessman has reappeared at key times to challenge Obama, primarily on economic policy. He's experienced the rigors of a national campaign, but previous charges of flip-flopping could haunt him.

--Barbour, Mississippi's governor and a former national Republican Party chairman, ascended to the RGA chairmanship this summer around the time he visited Iowa and New Hampshire. He was credited with helping Republicans win in Virginia and New Jersey, and helping recruit a strong field of 2010 gubernatorial candidates. The question: Does a party with diversity issues want a white Southerner who is a former lobbyist as the party's face?

--Gingrich, the former House speaker from Georgia known for leading the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress, has been traveling the country talking up Republican rebirth. He tested a stump-sounding speech in Kansas earlier this month, and has emerged as a critic of Obama's health care and economic policies. A leader among conservatives, Gingrich is a perennial flirt with the presidency. But he also carries baggage from his years as a lawmaker.

--Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, has spent the past year raising his national profile with a Fox News television talk show -- "Huckabee" -- and radio commentaries called the "Huckabee Report." He's in the midst of a tour for his new book, "A Simple Christmas." A longtime favorite of evangelicals who lifted him to victory in Iowa, this Southern Baptist preacher will be challenged to broaden the scope of his support to the rest of the party.

[Go2Peace]

1. Looks good amongst those challengers, but will he still have a democratic majority?

[Mz Pip]

2. They got nuthin'

Nada, Zip, Zilch.

Maybe Romney is their best shot but he's so annoying and glib.

They got nothing.

[FarLeftFist]

4. Especially with the civil war they will have by then

Not to mention republicans hate mormons, they view them as cult-like.

[SPedigrees]

19. Well if the shoe fits... Not often I agree with the repubs, but... nt

[Nay]

30. Zackly. Half the pubs will NEVER vote for a Mormon. They hate them.

[bluestateguy]

3. As long as he doesn't take his opponent for granted

NEVER do that. If you get caught napping in a campaign, the next thing you know you are making a concession speech.

[Mz Pip]

5. Considering

the kind of crap Obama is being hit with now, I suspect he won't be caught unaware of what the RW is truly capable of.

[FarCenter]

6. I'd think that they would nominate a sitting Governor or Senator

Only Barbour in you list holds an elective office. The rest will have been out of office for some time by 2012.

[Kansas Wyatt]

7. Pointless if....

1) Hope is still on the way.
2) Change is a coming.
3) We got stuck with 4 years of Republican Policies anyway.
4) No better off or worse than 4 years ago.

Turning your back on the Working People, is turning your back on your base. Without your base, that 35% Republican suddenly gains a competitive edge on you. President Obama still needs the Working People to show up at the Polls, and people are not going to listen to "hope" and "change" promises next time. The time to deliver is NOW, not after Wall Street has been given the keys to the U.S. Treasury.

It does not matter how bad the Republican Party is... The Democratic Party is running the Government, and they are being judged for their ability now. They were given a mandate to take the government back from Corporate America, and give it back to the People. So far, I'm not impressed. They promised Health Care Reform, but they are presenting a pathetic piece of shit modeled after Bush's Prescription Medicare Program.

[WCGreen]

9. I have to agree with you KW...

He is tacking to the other side of the middle and will have to do something for those of us on the left and quickly in order to have the energy his campaign will need to run against the all out assault from the right...

[golddigger]

35. +1

[Hannah Bell]

8. if he doesn't do something about jobs & income, he'll lose. to palin, or anyone else who runs.

you make a mistake ridiculing those people.

hard times can change people's vote patterns pretty damn quick.

[amandabeech]

11. Voter turn out may be low if there's little difference between Obama and the opponent

on what matters--the economy.

Also, independents may be in a real panic over deficit spending, and not without some reason. Trying to keep people afloat here and prosecuting two wars may not be possible because everyone wants a free lunch, especially Goldman Sucks.

[anonymous171]

14. Yep. Just look at how the South became solidly red in 1980

After having spent the previous decades as a democratic paradise, the south suddenly flipped and voted en masse for Reagan. They have stayed red ever since. An important reminder to the Obama administration. Ignore the working man, and he ignores you. Too bad Reagan was evil.

[Nay]

29. Yes, he can lose. Not because Dems will vote for Pubs, but because they

1) will stay home, or
2) vote 3rd party in total disgust, and
3) independents will swing over to the Pubs, and
4) the RWers will be in full howl over 4 yrs of a dem, and their base will crawl out of hospital beds to vote Pub.

The big problem is that Obama would have had a hard time turning things around even if he went full bore into the heart of the problems we need to deal with. Instead, he has allowed insiders like Summers and Geithner to suck him into their oligarchic world of illusions. That means that problems won't be on their way to being solved -- in 2012, we will be most likely facing worse economic times than now.

[Naturyl]

10. Yes, Obama will win.

But will we? That's the more important question, and in my mind, it's very much unresolved.

[amandabeech]

12. Well, not too many are winning on the economics front.

The banksters won with fraud and threats and close friends in high places.

[yodoobo]

16. When Obama wins. we win

When the Republicans win, we lose.

Its really that simple.

Shocking that it has to be pointed out here of all places.

[Hannah Bell]

21. maybe because it's not that simple. much of the electorate continues to lose.

jobs, homes, or security.

what's shocking is that another section of the electorate doesn't get how bad things are in some quarters.

[yodoobo]

22. Thats because his supporters are fighting him

We elected Him to do a job and now half of those who support him are fighting him.

Just take a look around this very forum. A large chunk of people here are fighting health care reform!


When you have the entire right fighting him, and half the left, its no wonder that nothing is getting done.


If things still suck, we only have ourselves to blame.

[Hannah Bell]

24. that's ridiculous.

[Kansas Wyatt]

32. Who the fuck...

CONCEDED their MANDATE before the debate even started?

65% - 70% of the American People wanted at LEAST a Strong Public Option, WITHOUT giveaways to the Insurance Industry.

You don't start out saying that is what we should end up with, because the Republicans and the Insurance Industry are going to remove and dismantle pieces of it along the way, until you end up with a watered down and weak public option (maybe) and BIG GIVEAWAYS to the Insurance Industry. They ended up bargaining away what they thought they should end up with. This alleged HCR shit looks so much like Bush's Prescription Medicare Plan it isn't funny.

You start out with what the Democratic Party could ever dream to have, and then you bargain down from there. The Insurance Industry and the Republicans understand that you fight every step of the way and cry foul until anything is signed, to sweeten your cut.

Who's Policies are they implementing, the Democratic Party's or the Republican Party's?

[Yuugal]

13. I have a soft spot on my ass for Huckleberry.

It would be my heart, but hes a total right wing religious nutjob.....BUT.... he was so pro-worker and anti-nafta when I saw him speak that I was immediately furious thinking about how our guys don't give a crap about jobs, except Obama wanting to export more of them to Asia.

Its all about jobs before anything else and Obumble is just not delivering anything, in fact he wants more Naftas, which makes him a total liar. I don't think I could ever vote for a repuke, but if Obumble can't figure out his base is working people then what the hell good is he anyway and why should I give a damn what happens to him? We hired him to do a job, and he wants to do the opposite of what we asked him to do. He better get his head out of his ass and learn to lead or his one term presidency he talked about will be just that.

When even a fucking nut job like Huckabee can figure out we need jobs and Obama wants to give them away? That election would be a landslide for the Huckster. Oh joy.

[Hannah Bell]

17. don't look to huckabee to back up his words with actions.

he's a free trader. and a dem-agogue, methinks.

despite the happy-face front.

[Yuugal]

18. I totally agree.

But anytime any politician says what I need to hear, that US workers should come first, I am glad. Obama said the same shit and hasn't done squat for us and now wants Nafta Asia style. All Huckster has to do is lie his ass off about jobs like Obama did and he is in like flint. People are just that desperate.

[Hannah Bell]

20. why be glad if it's just lies? i expect huck to run next time. i imagine that's

what all the jon stewart appearances (where he poses as a laid-back sort) are in service of. the facade people will vote for, i agree. even libs, if obama doesn't deal with jobs.

he's the epitome of the "it can't happen here" type dark horse.

[Double T]

15. If the RW elected 2 bushes, they'll elect anything and anyone.

[DFW]

23. If this is the best they have then Obama SHOULD win, but......

Remember how Carter felt in early 1980 when confronted with the prospect of Reagan as an opponent.
Back then, we all laughed at the prospect. A year later, the Dark Ages began. Don't think it
couldn't happen again. THIS time, they control just about all of the media as well.

[TicketyBoo]

25. It's hysterical

how most people here think the media is right-wing, and you hear all over the place that the media are a bunch of left-wing sympathizers, commies almost.

I can detect blatant partisanship when I see it, but it isn't all over. I think the evening news anchors still do a reasonable job of things. But who listens to them nowadays, right?

I can't stand Fox News. Makes my blood boil, and my blood pressure rise just watching clips on Olbermann. It mystifies me how people can be such ignoramuses to believe that tripe, and then I see something like this:

img269.imageshack.us/img269/3787/emericav3.jpg

and it becomes clear.

(You will have to type the http: // in front of that address in your browser's address bar in order to see the image; it is too large to embed it here.)

[DFW]

27. I have an unusual point of view

Being from Texas, you can imagine what the local media is when I'm home, which is not often.

Most of the time, I'm in Europe, where the media is very tame by comparison, except in those few instances
where Murdoch has his slimy fingers in the process, and outside of the UK, that's pretty much not at all.
In Germany, there's the Springer Verlag, but they, too, are no Fox, and no electronic media here comes
anywhere near Fox. They hardly even come close to CNN. I do get Wolf Blitzer here, and his blatantly
rightward-skewed "reporting" along with his "second-most biased political team on television" is so
openly tilted toward the right that my German wife notices it immediately. It's a good thing her mom
understands no English, or broadcasts like Blitzer's "situation room" would make her puke. She grew up
under the original Nazis, so she would immediately get the difference. Nonetheless, sensitivity to a
media slant is still very high over here.

What I do not see at all here (central Europe) is whatever is offered by the networks, NBC, CBS, or ABC.
I have hear varying stories about their rightward tilt as well, but have not watched them in years.

As to your photo collage:

Fox appeals to those who appear to have some kind of mental and emotional aberration, and there are
many of them in every country. We are a big country, and thus have more of them. I have yet to talk
with someone who watches Fox, takes them seriously, and was, as best I could tell, a fully rational,
emotionally mature individual. Maybe I've been stationed overseas too long?

[TicketyBoo]

28. This town

is full of people who think that Fox is the ONLY truth.

It's why I'm here, trying to find a few sane people in the world.

[DFW]

36. Hope you don't up waiting for Godot n/t

[TicketyBoo]

39. Well, I must say…

it is rather beginning to feel that way.

[Echo In Light]

26. He'll "win" provided the vested interests running the show ensure his "victory" in the "election."

[NikRik]

31. Much to early to predict !

I believe that untill we see what his first term demostrats to us how well he can get his bills passed and most importantly see a improvement in the economy ,we need jobs now !

[madokie]

33. Probably? What the hell you mean probably?

He'll win because he is doing a hell of a good job so far and will continue doing so. I'll go so far as to say there will be very few votes cast against him. His relection will set records in numbers voting, and the percentages of votes cast for the incumbent. Re:puke: bullshit is all ready starting to smell the place up and will only get worse.

[CTLawGuy]

34. The Rs will either

1. Nominate someone not far right enough, drawing a Hoffman-like teabagger challenger or 2. nominate someone too far right, alienating moderates. The teabaggers have proven with the NY-23 race, that party means nothing to them and the R party will suffer for it.

All of the following assumes the economy has recovered more or less by 2012.

Palin - Terrible candidate. She could get the nomination but she can't handle a presidential campaign unless she wises up really fast. She doesn't take direction well. Her quitting of the governorship in Alaska will not help her. A lot of moderates were motivated to vote for Obama because of her. Obama would easily beat her.

Pawlenty - probably the Rs best bet right now. He's young and he has experience but not too much. Not a lot of previous national exposure so people have not made up their minds about him. Not sure how far left he's had to tack in blue MN, but that would be his big weak point to getting the nomination. If he plays it too moderate or something comes out about his time as gov of MN that the far right doesn't like, he will draw a teabag challenger, maybe Palin, if he were to somehow win the nom. Obama still wins but Pawlenty has the best shot.

Romney - He's like Pawlenty farther along in his career. He tries to be a conservative but was governor of a blue state. Romney's two big problems are (1) his lack of appeal to the religious fundies (i.e. he's a mormon) and (2) his major flip flops on policy (IIRC, he was pro choice when running for gov of MA). The teabaggers will hit him over the head with every somewhat left position he took as governor of MA. The only way he gets out of the primary is if the other candidates kill each other (same way McCain won) and Northeastern Rs who supported McCain flock to him. Obama would win handily.

Barbour - not well known. My guess is that he would rely too much on Huckabee's base, and Huckabee's a stronger candidate. Won't survive the primary.

Gingrich - one of the founding fathers of the far right movement. However, his heyday was the nineties, thus there are better, more relevant candidates who could accomplish the same things. Basically he is the presidental candidate equivalent of old news. People have made up their minds about him and I don't think he's that popular. Also, not sure what his natural base would be. It doesn't help that he backed Scozzafava. He of all people can't afford to alienate the teabag faction. Would not get out of the primary.

Huckabee - IMHO the strongest candidate behind Pawlenty. His popularity however would be limited outside the south. Business Republicans don't like him because he has had some slightly progressive views on tax policy and economics - that would be his biggest problem. His social views would also turn off a lot of moderates outside the south. Obama would beat him about the same as he would Pawlenty.

[divineorder]

38. Any Dark Horses?

Back in 2004, we had a rocket like Obama-but then we have younger Democrats to begin with. The Republicans don't have anybody that can really appeal to the younger, multicultural and more moderate electorate we now have. Indeed, their only real shot would be a very low-turnout election combined with somebody who sounds sane.

Which is probably nobody next time around. A McCain could get away with seeming relatively moderate because of his long tenure of not being reflexively right-wing on every thing, and probably didn't need to grovel so much due to age. A younger candidate would have to pander more to the teabagger crowd to win, and thanks to You-Tube, millions will hear him pander.

A wild card will be 2016. With a potential open on both sides race in 2016, some potential candidates may decide to sit things out and wait for a more evenly matched race (it's hard to unseat an incumbent President, especially if he's doing ok). If that happens, I suspect we will see a Dole-like race, a slot given to somebody who has earned a slot but who has little real chance to win (ala Bob Dole, 1996). So Sarah may get a shot, or Romney gets his. Sarah wins over a divided and lackluster field, Romney gets a chance to represent Mormons and cement their loyalty to the GOP.

So either or even both flame out in 2012 while younger and more viable candidates wait for 2016 and hope they face an unknown challenger or a very senior Biden. By then, Jeb Bush may have rehabbed himself sufficiently, or Jindal moved up to the Senate, or some other wild card not yet known has moved up to the Ring of Fire.

[LWolf]

37. Without help from this teacher. nt