Foreclosure Tide Turning?

[ProSense]

Foreclosure Tide Turning?

Foreclosure filings were reported on 332,292 U.S. properties in October, a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The report also shows one in every 385 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in October.

<...>

“Three consecutive monthly declines is unprecedented for our report, and on first blush an indication that the foreclosure tide may be turning,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “However, the fundamental forces driving foreclosure activity in this housing downturn — high-risk mortgages, negative equity, and unemployment — continue to loom over any nascent recovery. And despite all the efforts and resources directed at helping homeowners avoid foreclosure, we continue to see foreclosure activity levels that are substantially higher than a year ago in most states.”



more

(emphasis added)

[gleaner]

1. That is an impressive chart ....

and the bolded comment looks hopeful, but the unbolded comment,

“However, the fundamental forces driving foreclosure activity in this housing downturn — high-risk mortgages, negative equity, and unemployment — continue to loom over any nascent recovery. And despite all the efforts and resources directed at helping homeowners avoid foreclosure, we continue to see foreclosure activity levels that are substantially higher than a year ago in most states.”

is not so good.

There are still a lot of us with negative equity do to the Bush smash the middle class program and inflation is creeping up faster than a racing Scorpion. Unemployment is at a record high, and nothing is going to reverse these trends unless the government steps in and takes some quick and decisivee action to help people save their homes.

[PSPS]

2. Utter hogwash

For one thing, it's the crap loans now being promoted that's "reducing" foreclosures. For example, Wells Fargo is turning many of its "pick-a-pay" loans into 40-year interest-only loans. What a joke.

Another thing is that banks are skipping foreclosure. Many people have simply stopped paying their mortgage payment and the banks aren't bothering to send out a NOD. This can go on for over a year. And if the bank does take it as an REO, it's holding it off the market -- the "shadow inventory."

It's all smoke and mirrors to prop up housing prices at their still-too-high levels.

[MadHound]

3. God, how pathetic, how sad,

You're so concerned that this looks bad for Obama that you post another entire thread on it, trying to make everything happy-happy joy-joy, yet continuing to rely on an article that entire disproves your point.

You really should have given up while you were ahead of the game, now you've gone and posted this and made things look oh so much worse for yourself.

[ProSense]

4. Maybe you should stop worrying that people like the President and

deal with the facts at hand. The OP has nothing to do with Obama. It is, however, a fact that foreclosures dropped by 3 percent.

Why does this upset you?

[girl gone mad]

9. What's the margin of error for this report?

I'm guessing it's over 10% (it almost always is).

Needless to say, when the margin of error % is greater than the actual reported change in foreclures, the released figure becomes meaningless. Since the markets are forward looking, few people actually look back to see the revised numbers, relying purely on the first-reported estimates.

In addition to the fact that foreclosure activity is seasonal, the fact that the month to month changes almost always fall under the range of the moe is another reason economists rely more heavily on the year over year numbers.

[MadHound]

12. Doesn't upset me in the least, in fact I find this thread, and you, to be rather amusing tonight

In a rather sad, pathetic way. Another poster posted the very same information that you did, pointing out the while yes, forclosures were down three percent over last month, they were up nineteen percent over last year(and in the real estate business, it is well known that annual comparisons are much more accurate than monthly ones).

So anyway, you get in a royal snit in that thread, thinking that it is criticism about Obama, keep repeating the same inane points in the thread (USING THE SAME DATA AS THE OP!) and try to claim that shit smells like roses. Then, after getting your ass handed to you by people pointing out that we can read for ourselves, you go and post THE SAME DATA in a thread all your own.

Dude, you're making yourself look clueless, because as others have pointed out, WE CAN ALL READ!

But hey, you go on with your bad self, you want to play the fool tonight, go for it. But hey, remember, Da Nile isn't just a river in Egypt, oh, and WE CAN ALL READ!

[ProSense]

13. "Dude, you're making yourself look clueless" You sound

bitter.

[MadHound]

21. Now gee, what would I have to be bitter about?

Oh, yeah, fore closures are up nineteen percent over a year ago, unemployment is over ten percent, inflation is climbing, we're wasting lives and treasure on two foolish wars, and oh, yeah, I'm getting out of college, having retrained for four years, and the jobs in my field (education) are drying up quickly. Not to mention that we have a pro-privatization education secretary. Nothing to be bitter about, no, nothing at all:eyes:

[ProSense]

23. You admit you're bitter, and that doesn't change

the fact that there are positive developments. There is no need for anyone to distort the facts to prove that things aren't improving. Not everyone is bitter, and some people can see past the negative, and even the disappointment, to acknowledge positive development.

[MadHound]

26. Then why are you distorting facts?

Using the very same article that you posted from, we can all see that foreclosures are up nineteen percent over this time last year, yet you keep insisting that all is happy-happy, joy-joy when the fact of the matter it's not, in fact it's pretty damn depressing and scary out there right now. The only positive developments out there are the fact that the banksters are once again riding high, on OUR money. Meanwhile you dismiss anybody who dares to criticize the Almighty and All Knowing Obama as bitter or out of touch with reality, when the goddamn reality is screaming out at you from the very article you posted. FORECLOSURES ARE UP NINETEEN PERCENT OVER THIS TIME LAST YEAR!! Do you get that, do you understand that?

Geez, buy a clue, rejoin reality, you've let your hero worship override your own common sense.

[ProSense]

28. How is the OP distorting the facts? n/t

[Hannah Bell]

5. More Foreclosures to Come

Published: November 11, 2009

After a few months of some better than expected housing news, home prices are likely to fall again, driven lower by a renewed surge in foreclosures. By conservative estimates, another 2.4 million homes will be lost in 2010, while prices will fall another 10 percent or so. This should be a wake-up call for the Obama administration. Foreclosures are expected to surge, in part, because lenders have been delaying the process during the long rollout of the administration’s antiforeclosure plan. But according to Moody’s Economy.com, most troubled borrowers ultimately will not qualify for help, and a backlog of bad loans will soon enter foreclosure.

The Obama plan, which provides subsidies to lenders who modify troubled loans, has been flawed from the start. It has no teeth to compel lenders to participate. And it was primarily designed to help borrowers who defaulted because their loans had exploding interest rates or other features that made them suddenly unaffordable.

There were a lot more of those borrowers when the housing bust began, and for them, the plan’s main remedy — reducing monthly payments — could work well. But with unemployment running above 10 percent, many people are now defaulting because they have lost their jobs. They will have trouble qualifying for help, because they can’t make even reduced payments...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/12/opinion/12thu2.html?_r=2


ARM resets coming too.

All this because the OP couldn't bear that certain *factual information* should ever see the light of day.

First he called it lies.
Then he spun it.
Then he used personal denigration.

Some people.

[ProSense]

6. A prediction?

Isn't a prediction a lot different from a declaration that there has been a rise in foreclosure?

"After a few months of some better than expected housing news..." Will you acknowledge that the most recent news has been positive?

As for the rest, it's a prediction:

Foreclosures are expected to surge, in part, because lenders have been delaying the process during the long rollout of the administration’s antiforeclosure plan. But according to Moody’s Economy.com, most troubled borrowers ultimately will not qualify for help, and a backlog of bad loans will soon enter foreclosure.

edited missing word

[Hannah Bell]

7. no, most news hasn't been "positive". foreclosures are up nearly 20% over 2008, &

2008 foreclosures were up about 60% over 2007.

plus, resets are coming & unemployment is still rising. cities & states are laying off, with more coming into crisis, including mine.

gov't is the biggest, or one of the biggest, employers in many states.

more unemployment = more foreclosures.

your spin is disingenuous bullshit.

[ProSense]

8. So now you're denying the statement in the article you linked to? n/t

[Hannah Bell]

10. i'm denying that most news on housing & economics has been positive.

spin it as you like.

[ProSense]

11. "After a few months of some better than expected housing news"

That's from the article you provided

[Hannah Bell]

14. is that *most* of the news? i hadn't realized the news environment was so limited.

spin, spin, spin.

not sure why you couldn't just accept the truth of the news in the first case.

[ProSense]

15. No, it's as I said, "the most recent news" n/t

[slipslidingaway]

16. Start another thread, very predictable, here is the other thread where the...

discussion began.

Foreclosures rise, consumer sentiment falls in US
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7017483&mesg_id=7017483

[ProSense]

17. Don't you mean distortion? n/t

[slipslidingaway]

22. No I do not and other people on the original thread disagreed with you...

so you start a new thread, which you do all the time when confronted by opposing views.

Very predictable.

[ProSense]

25. Who cares about the original thread?

It was an article distorting the release. Are you opposed to the actual release being posted?

[slipslidingaway]

29. You're missing the point once again...

which was the predictability of you starting another thread instead of continuing the discussion in the original one.

[johnaries]

27. wsws.org? Really?

:eyes:

Yeah, that's a reliable source. :sarcasm:

[slipslidingaway]

30. Quoted the same month over month and yoy numbers, funny how...

this poster constantly starts a new thread when others point out her errors in reading an article.

:shrug:

[johnaries]

36. I'm not talking about ProSense. I'm talking about that hack site

quoted in the linked thread. I would never trust anything posted on wsws.org.

As for ProSense, I have read many of her threads and posts and have enjoyed them greatly. Yes, sometimes she gets a little over-zealous IMHO, but nothing that approaches the vitriol and vile distortions of many of the anti-Obama crowd, which often makes it impossible to have a reasoned discussion.

I would like to see foreclosure aid that would apply directly to mortgage principles. But many would decry those, too.

The fact is that we are having and will continue to have higher foreclosure rates than a year ago. But there is some improvement. Perhaps not as much as anyone would like to see, but improvement nevertheless. It is going to take a long time for the economy to recover. Nothing anyone can do will change that. But Obama's policies are helping. To deny that is to close your eyes, cover your ears, and yell "LALALALA".

[slipslidingaway]

38. Why ignore the central point of my post, when the poster cannot deal with...

the replies in the original thread, she leaves that thread and starts a new one...happens all the time.

She then links back to her New thread which does not contain the additional information others have posted in the original thread.


Example, this was posted in the original thread, although I now see some replies have been deleted. Why not discuss the issues in the original thread instead of running away?

:shrug:

What's Behind the Foreclosure Decrease
ShareComment By Luke Mullins

Posted: November 12, 2009

http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-home-front/2009/11/12/whats-behind-the-foreclosure-decrease.html


"1. Obama rescue: The monthly foreclosure decline comes as the Obama administration ramps up its sweeping effort to get as many as 4 million struggling homeowners into more affordable mortgages. On Tuesday, the Treasury Department said it had extended more than 650,000 trial loan modifications through October, putting it on track to meet its ambitious goals. However, mortgage modifications have a checkered history of success, and it remains unclear how many of these borrowers will simply fall behind on their new loans. The concern is that the program may be delaying foreclosures rather than preventing them. "Every loan servicer or lender I have spoken to in the last couple months has basically told me that they have had to slow down foreclosure initiations because they have had to re-evaluate their portfolio of loans to see which ones qualify for ," says Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing. "There are about 5.5 million delinquent loans. It just takes an awful lot of time to go through each loan individually...."

[Go2Peace]

34. ProSense

ProSense appears to be paid by the word to be here and is only interested in trying to change perception. Last weekend he was posting OPs every 10-15 minutes for 18 hours, trying to change the course of discussion about Health Care.

I have taken to just unrecing his posts every time I see them. Of course he will eventually just get another account and proceed to do the same thing but he will surely expose himself again.

[johnaries]

37. You keep on unreccing, and I'll keep on reccing.

The anti-Obama poison on here sometimes just astounds me. Sure, I don't agree with everything he does. But considering what he has inherited he has done an OUTSTANDING job.

Agreed, sometimes ProSense can get a little over-zealous, but overall I would say SHE has done an outstanding job as well in trying to counter some of the misinformation the anti-Obamaites spew.

[HughMoran]

42. ...and

it wouldn't be an exaggeration to state that there are more "over-zealous" people on the anti-Obama side, so I'm quite happy with the information provided by ProSense.


(insert expected "pom pom" reply here...)

[slipslidingaway]

39. ProSense always puts a positive spin on any development :) n/t

[MilesColtrane]

18. There's still an assload of unsecured and option ARMS that will be resetting interest rates.

...and more people out of work who will have to make the larger payments. (or walk away)

This graph scares the crap out of me.

[ProSense]

19. Interesting chart. n/t

[depakid]

20. This is why the cramdown provision was so important

but, in what has proven to be a pattern- the Democrats couldn't get it done despite warnings from the same economists who got it right before.

[Warren DeMontague]

24. Cool.

Let's hope. :thumbsup:

[HughMoran]

31. Fascinating

It's OK to disagree with a posters' source or hypothesis, but the anger in this thread is palpable. I'm glad there are some people on DU who look for and post positive stories from time to time. You'd think there was a "negative only" rule based on some of the above responses. Thanks for your efforts ProSense.

[earth mom]

32. So thank the OP for spewing disinformation?! WTF?!

You both need to step away from the Hope & Change Kool Aid. :crazy:

[Go2Peace]

35. No, folks have just caught on.

[cherokeeprogressive]

33. Um, Nnnnnope. Nice try though.

[slipslidingaway]

40. What's Behind the Foreclosure Decrease

articles posted in the original thread, why not reply in the other thread?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7017483&mesg_id=7017483


http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-home-front/2009/11/12/whats-behind-the-foreclosure-decrease.html


"1. Obama rescue: The monthly foreclosure decline comes as the Obama administration ramps up its sweeping effort to get as many as 4 million struggling homeowners into more affordable mortgages

. On Tuesday, the Treasury Department said it had extended more than 650,000 trial loan modifications through October, putting it on track to meet its ambitious goals. However, mortgage modifications have a checkered history of success, and it remains unclear how many of these borrowers will simply fall behind on their new loans. The concern is that the program may be delaying foreclosures rather than preventing them. "Every loan servicer or lender I have spoken to in the last couple months has basically told me that they have had to slow down foreclosure initiations because they have had to re-evaluate their portfolio of loans to see which ones qualify for ," says Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing. "There are about 5.5 million delinquent loans. It just takes an awful lot of time to go through each loan individually..."


More Foreclosures to Come

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/12/opinion/12thu2.html?_r=3

"After a few months of some better than expected housing news, home prices are likely to fall again, driven lower by a renewed surge in foreclosures. By conservative estimates, another 2.4 million homes will be lost in 2010, while prices will fall another 10 percent or so. This should be a wake-up call for the Obama administration. Foreclosures are expected to surge, in part, because lenders have been delaying the process during the long rollout of the administration’s antiforeclosure plan. But according to Moody’s Economy.com, most troubled borrowers ultimately will not qualify for help, and a backlog of bad loans will soon enter foreclosure...

On Tuesday, the administration announced that through October, 650,994 loans had been modified under the Obama plan. But the administration did not specify how many of those were trial modifications — reduced-payment offers that will become permanent after up to five months of steady payments by the borrowers — and how many had already become permanent.

The administration expects to provide that information within the next two weeks. Until then, it will be impossible to know how many people have actually avoided foreclosure..."

[jpak]

41. Obama's economic recovery programs are working - the whiners can STFU

just sayin'