Foreclosures rise, consumer sentiment falls in US

[Hannah Bell]

Home foreclosures in the US increased 19 percent in October over a year ago, according to a report released by RealtyTrac, Inc., on Thursday. The number of filings was more than 300,000 for the eighth month in a row...

The state with the highest foreclosure rate in the country continues to be Nevada, where one out of 80 homes received a foreclosure filing in October. The state with the highest absolute number of foreclosures was California, with more than 85,000, followed by Florida, Illinois, and Michigan. These four states accounted for more than 50 percent of all foreclosures in the country...

A separate report released Tuesday from the National Association of Realtors found that the median sale price for a single-family home fell 11.2 percent from a year ago. This includes a price decline in 80 percent of the country’s metropolitan areas...

Official unemployment is now at 10.2 percent and rising, while a broader measure, which includes involuntary part-time workers and those who have left the labor market, has surged to 17.5 percent.
Employers are using high unemployment as a lever to drive down wages and benefits. Total compensation costs for private employers rose by only 1.2 percent from a year ago in September, the lowest increase since the government began recording the measure nearly 30 years ago...

Wall Street traders shrugged off the weaker-than-expected consumer confidence figures and an 18.2 percent increase in the US trade deficit to send stock markets up on the day, thanks to profit reports from several major companies.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/nov2009/econ-n14.shtml

[rwheeler31]

1. The business community wants Obama and all the rest of

to fail. This is going to be a hell of a fight.

[Yuugal]

2. Nothing to see here....move along.....

Obama has turned the corner, haven't you heard?

[ProSense]

3. Foreclosures didn't rise

Foreclosure Tide Turning?

Foreclosure filings were reported on 332,292 U.S. properties in October, a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The report also shows one in every 385 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in October.

[girl gone mad]

6. Re-read the text you quoted.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 332,292 U.S. properties in October, a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The report also shows one in every 385 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in October.

The year over year data is more important than the month to month because foreclosure activity is seasonal.

[ProSense]

9. "a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month "

So that isn't a rise is it?

[Hannah Bell]

14. this is: "up nearly 19 percent from October 2008"

[girl gone mad]

16. The overall trend is still a sharp increase in foreclosures.

I'm guessing the moe of the survey is greater than 3%, which makes that figure essentially useless.

[dysfunctional press]

7. real estate is a seasonal business- it makes more sense to look at year-to year data...

not month-to month.

[Hannah Bell]

8. over last year.

[ProSense]

11. It's a distortion, and you know it. n/t

[Hannah Bell]

18. bullshit. foreclosures down 3% from last month, up 19% from last year.

foreclosure is driven by unemployment. unemployment is rising.

[ProSense]

21. “Three consecutive monthly declines is unprecedented for our report, and on first blush ...

“Three consecutive monthly declines is unprecedented for our report, and on first blush an indication that the foreclosure tide may be turning,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “However, the fundamental forces driving foreclosure activity in this housing downturn — high-risk mortgages, negative equity, and unemployment — continue to loom over any nascent recovery. And despite all the efforts and resources directed at helping homeowners avoid foreclosure, we continue to see foreclosure activity levels that are substantially higher than a year ago in most states.”

That's directly from the release.

[Hannah Bell]

28. Not sure what point you think you're making.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

35. Foreclosures are driven in part by unemployment

They're also being driven now by option ARMs and a restructuring of qualified borrowers. There's also the deflated market value which leads to negative equity to consider.

Right now employed buyers with excellent credit are seeing a dream market. Everyone else is waking up to the reality of the US housing market fabricated "boom" of 2001-2006. However even at late as November of 2008 there were economist and many media outlets denying the economic ramifications we were beginning to see then. Here we are a year later and the media is finally on board that we just lived through one of the greatest housing busts in US history.

Americans have been used to feed an artificial housing boom, fueled by a consumer oriented economy based on credit rather than real income, which was then used to prop up false economic reports. It's no wonder consumer confidence is down.

[Lucky Luciano]

25. Yoy is definitely correct. Mom stats are interesting too,

But yoy tells much more of the story

[bluestateguy]

4. Doom Doom Doom. Gloom Gloom Gloom.

You love bad news don't you?

[Starry Messenger]

10. Do you live in California?

We're pretty much still living the Bush years out here.

[Hannah Bell]

13. Is it true, or not? I prefer reality to spin, thanks.

[bluestateguy]

17. Honestly, I'm getting a little tired of hearing about foreclosures

Too many idiots bought houses they could not afford, or failed to read the terms of their mortgages, or lied on their loan applications.

Some of us (me) kept our powder dry and preferred to save, rather than jump at the latest shiny new offer from the bank.

The only reason I support government action to reduce foreclosures and save some homeowners from foreclosure is because a cascade of foreclosures is bad for the economy at large.

[Hannah Bell]

19. unemployment drives foreclosure, not "idiots buying too much house."

unemployment is rising.

[bluestateguy]

22. Here. This is for you.

We are not a nation of victims.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9N66FzKFa7Y

But as to your point, foreclosures were going up in 2006-07, when unemployment was still low.

[Hannah Bell]

24. 10.2% of us are unemployed, 7% more are underemployed, another 7% have given up looking.

these are *facts,* spin-man.

& your phoney "positive thought" doesn't change them one bit.

[bluestateguy]

27. And 75.8% of people are not in those categories

Which is the bigger number?

Now, who has more of an ability to drive an economic recovery?

[Hannah Bell]

29. yes, & 75% weren't in those categories at the height of the Great Depression.

So the fuck what?

[bluestateguy]

32. We got out of that calamity and we will get out of this one too

No matter how much the "World Socialist" crowd would just love to have a total collapse that would lead to their Workers of the World Unite scenario. It never quite panned out the way they wanted in 1929-33 in America, and they have wanted to try again with a total meltdown ever since.

Now please stop talking to me. Put me on ignore, and I will do the same for you.

[Hannah Bell]

33. this is the longest recession since the Great Depression. Stocks & banks are fine.

The people in my neighborhood are still losing jobs & houses.

I guess it all depends from which economic strata you're viewing the action.

"Positive thinking" = ignoring evidence.

[HamdenRice]

43. ROFL!

'the "World Socialist" crowd would just love to have a total collapse that would lead to their Workers of the World Unite scenario.'

Yup, that pretty much sums it up!

[Hannah Bell]

26. job losses already started up in 2007.

http://docs.google.com/gview?srcid=ADGEESg-Uu9eEbBd-lLzEMqQ33EfP_V4kRJbEU93GLAU8Cw1stdAJvDCtsAIO0tnej1japTQxNCULJE67eeqYcL6a6yh1a6_ksxMfOw63PweSp4b_T_9fmXPtjIi9i9IDAupykP0wIB0&pid=bl&q=cache%3AYEO_t4As8WoJ%3Awww.bls.gov%2Fnews.release%2Fpdf%2Fempsit.pdf%20unemployment%202006%202007&docid=9cfa8550074a624b8d6df1c75f2662a3&a=bi&pagenumber=1&w=753

[sabrina 1]

40. And I am really sick and tired of people like you who

do not understand that less than 20% of all mortgage defaults were caused by people who took out loans they could not afford. That would not and did not cause this catastrophe. And of those numbers, many were affected by the job market as the economy began to collapse.

I really cannot stand that right-wing, totally ignorant claim, the same way they blamed Enron's investors rather than the crooks who were actually guilty.

You don't seem to understand the corruption, the actual criminal activity that was going on in the real estate market. So bad that the FBI was investigating it. The Bush administration redirected the resources that were needed to put a stop to the corruption into his phony 'war on terror' making it a field day for all the crooks involved, until it all finally collapsed. Some might even think he was protecting them.

Many, many home-owners were cheated and misled, some even had their applications tampered with. It was a feeding frenzy, and it was not caused by the buyers. You really ought to do a little research on this and stop helping to bail out the crooks by blaming the victims.

[bluestateguy]

50. I speak my mind. I speak my piece. I never back down.

You always know where I stand. You may disagree, but you know where I stand.

And I never apologize for it.

[sabrina 1]

51. Not even when you're wrong?

That is what I thought, since that talking point, 'blame the home buyers' has been refuted thoroughly as a cause for the total meltdown of this economy. The only place where it still survives, is on rightwing blogs, talk-shows and Fox.

It's nothing to be proud of to continue to 'stand up' when you are wrong and since factual information is so available now, there is no excuse for this kind of ignorance of the facts.

[bluestateguy]

57. You know where I stand

Conviction, not capitulation.

[sabrina 1]

58. I really can't take you seriously anymore.

I would call your condition an 'affliction' though. Resistance to facts!

[chill_wind]

41. Well cover your ears, because you won't like this report, either:

Also linked somewhere here by Hannah Bell--



What's Behind the Foreclosure Decrease

By Luke Mullins

Posted: November 12, 2009

http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-home-front/2009/11/12/whats-behind-the-foreclosure-decrease.html



It isn't nearly as obvious or simple as you think.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hannah Bell]

12. bull. the data is straight from RealtyTrac's website, it's not "fake news".

http://www.realtytrac.com/contentmanagement/pressrelease.aspx?channelid=9&itemid=7856

IRVINE, Calif. – November 12, 2009 – RealtyTrac® (realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its October 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 332,292 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008. The report also shows one in every 385 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in October.

Nevada, California, Florida post top state foreclosure rates
Despite a 26 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month, Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate — one in every 80 housing units received a foreclosure filing in October. A total of 13,842 Nevada properties received a foreclosure filing during the month, a 4 percent decrease from October 2008 and the first ever year-over-year decrease in Nevada since RealtyTrac began tabulating the year-over-year change in January 2006. Nevada default notices were down 10 percent from October 2008, and scheduled foreclosure auctions were down 6 percent from October 2008, while bank repossessions were up 8 percent from October 2008. A new foreclosure mediation program implemented by state law (AB 149) in July may be slowing the inflow of distressed properties into the foreclosure pipeline.

With one in every 156 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in October, California posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the second month in a row. A total of 85,420 California properties received a foreclosure filing during the month, a decrease of 1 percent from the previous month but still nearly 50 percent above the total reported in October 2008. The state’s default notices and scheduled foreclosure auctions were up 120 percent and 73 percent respectively from October 2008, when California foreclosure activity was in the midst of a three-month trough after a law (SB 1137) requiring lenders to give distressed homeowners extra notification before initiating foreclosure took effect in September 2008.

Florida posted the third highest state foreclosure rate, with one in every 168 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in October. A total of 51,911 Florida properties received a foreclosure filing during the month, a nearly 6 percent decrease from the previous month and a decrease of 4 percent from October 2008. It was the first year-over-year decrease in overall Florida foreclosure activity since July 2006.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Arizona, Idaho, Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Maryland and Utah.



Nationwide, foreclosures are nearly 20% higher than last year at this time, spin as you will.

[ProSense]

15. The release said nothing about foreclosures rising, here is what it said:

Foreclosure Tide Turning?

Foreclosure filings were reported on 332,292 U.S. properties in October, a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The report also shows one in every 385 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in October.

[Hannah Bell]

20. "but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008."

plot the trend line, spin-man.

What's Behind the Foreclosure Decrease
Comment By Luke Mullins

Posted: November 12, 2009

Even as the housing market continues to stagger, foreclosure filings in October declined for the third month in a row. Foreclosure filings were reported on 332,292 properties last month, or 3 percent fewer than September's tally, real estate firm RealtyTrac said today. Even though filings remained 19 percent higher than a year earlier, "hree consecutive monthly declines is unprecedented for our report," RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said in a statement. But with unemployment busting through the 10 percent threshold and a slew of state and federal initiatives against foreclosures in place, foreclosure trends aren't as optimistic as they may appear in this report. Here are five things you need to know...

http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-home-front/2009/11/12/whats-behind-the-foreclosure-decrease.html

[jpak]

47. Boy, some people can't see that the trend in foreclosures and job losses have been reversed by Obama

yup

[chill_wind]

23. ProSense-- we can freakin READ, ok?

"..a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008."

That's the sentence. THE WHOLE BIG PICTURE.

[MadHound]

30. But, but, but it makes Obama look bad somehow

We must have happy-happy joy-joy when dealing with anything that reflects back on Obama.

It really is getting tiresome, having Democrats spin any bad news for their guy as wildly as the 'Pugs do.

[chill_wind]

36. And it's not a reflection on Obama. That's the thing.

I don't look for him to have cured in 10 months what decades of bad policy and the previous admin dumped in his lap. But let's keep it real!

[ProSense]

31. Really?

"Foreclosures rise, consumer sentiment falls in US"

Now since foreclosures declined for three consecutive months, what does the year-to-year comparison have to do with current consumer sentiment?

[Hannah Bell]

34. Foreclosures have risen over this time last year. Consumer sentiment has fallen.

What does your question have to do with anything?

More Foreclosures to Come
Published: November 11, 2009

After a few months of some better than expected housing news, home prices are likely to fall again, driven lower by a renewed surge in foreclosures. By conservative estimates, another 2.4 million homes will be lost in 2010, while prices will fall another 10 percent or so. This should be a wake-up call for the Obama administration. Foreclosures are expected to surge, in part, because lenders have been delaying the process during the long rollout of the administration’s antiforeclosure plan. But according to Moody’s Economy.com, most troubled borrowers ultimately will not qualify for help, and a backlog of bad loans will soon enter foreclosure.

The Obama plan, which provides subsidies to lenders who modify troubled loans, has been flawed from the start. It has no teeth to compel lenders to participate. And it was primarily designed to help borrowers who defaulted because their loans had exploding interest rates or other features that made them suddenly unaffordable.

There were a lot more of those borrowers when the housing bust began, and for them, the plan’s main remedy — reducing monthly payments — could work well. But with unemployment running above 10 percent, many people are now defaulting because they have lost their jobs. They will have trouble qualifying for help, because they can’t make even reduced payments.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/12/opinion/12thu2.html?_r=2

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_454355.html

[HamdenRice]

44. The only way to track this kind of data as indication of the recession is month by month

Of course it's up from last year. The crisis had just started. The point is to determine whether we are on a further downward course or are turning the corner.

The only way to determine that is to look at month to month data.

[Lucky Luciano]

46. Disagreed.

YoY is much more important...and one should note that things were very bad in Oct 2008 as well - afterall everything was blowing up by then because of the foreclosure crisis and the expectation of further foreclosures. I do agree that MoM has more meaning during this crisis because things are so volatile that knowing exactly what to compare is very hard. What is vey clear to me is that the foreclosure crisis would be much worse without the homebuyer tax credit and other things that have been enacted. Also, unemployment is continuing to grow at a horrible rate, so I am not sure how sustainable the last three MoM statistics are going to be.

As a side note, I have a pretty unique indicator of how the economy is doing. I don't know anybody who also uses this indicator - read this:

I'll start with some background. When I was a kid, I used to collect coins hoping to pick a supervaluable winner from my change. I never did find anything worth more than a couple bucks (An 1873 Indian Head Penny was my best find) and usually the only things I found were wheat back pennies and some nickels from WWII that were made with silver etc. This habit I had as a kid continued into my adult years even though I don't really expect to find anything of interest. I always cehck my change after the new year to see if I can find change created in the new year. In 2009, it took 7 months for me to find a 2009 quarter and I have not seen any 2009 dimes or nickels and only 3 or 4 pennies. USually by now the new year's change is quite ubiquitous - it is still very rare.

I grew curious as to why I did not find any 2009 change. I searched the internet and found out that the reason the mint has not released very much new coinage is because the banks have not been requesting any. The reason for that is that people with big jars of change have been bringing their jars into convert to cash as people are so desperate for money. With change not sitting in people's jars, the coins are sent back into circulation so new 2009 coinage has not been necessary. It is probably a lagging indicator and less useful, but it will help confirm that things are better for me if new coins are minted and I see them in circulation like I did before the recession.

[sabrina 1]

52. Can't spin something like this. It has affected too many

people. While trying to help a friend (wrote about it here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7015574&mesg_id=7015574) stop a foreclosure with Wells Fargo, we were shocked when searching the public records in her area in Upstate NY, to see how many forecluses there are going on every day.

This could be reduced if there was some oversight of these big banks. Eg, they should be mandated to try to work out a reduced mortgage payment even if temporarily, with people who could manage a smaller payment. But they will not even talk to people. It's like a giant machine, unstoppable, as they repossess homes across the country.

There needs to be a moratorium on these foreclosures while effort is put into reviewing how many could be saved.

In one case, as Wells Fargo went ahead planning to throw a woman out of her home, a an activist group and her community held a demonstration outside of one of their banks, and all of a sudden they were able to sit down and work something out with her. She had lost her job, then finally found one, but the bank was not intersted in hearing from her, until they were shamed into doing so. I wonder how many others there like this who've had temporary set-backs as a result of the economy, but could be helped to stay in their homes.

American Dream? More like American Nightmare.

[Hannah Bell]

37. kik

[slipslidingaway]

38. kick nt

[earth mom]

39. K & R! nt

[Name removed]

42. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Starry Messenger]

45. kick

[Greyhound]

48. .

[TwilightGardener]

49. Gee, foreclosures are up from this time last year???

Median prices down from this time last year?? Get out!!! (Do I HAVE to say "Duh"?)

[Greyhound]

56. Apparently. Read up the thread. n/t

[prolesunited]

53. And, frankly, it's ALL the fault of Obama and the Dems

[Fumesucker]

54. K&R

[chill_wind]

55. Bloomberg

U.S. Economy: Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls (Update1)

By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped in November as the loss of jobs threatened to undermine the biggest part of the economy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA7lS8KM6eD8&pos=2

Are We Facing a Jobless Recovery?
Economists Fear Outcome of Long-term Job Loss, Stagnant Creation

http://washingtonindependent.com/63519/are-we-facing-a-jobless-recovery

[QC]

59. Clearly Bloomberg is a millionaire Trotskyite who owns a printing company, then.

He is unreliable.

[chill_wind]

60. Heh :-) I'll see your "a priori" and raise you a big fat

Res ipsa loquitur. Well that's what I wanted to say after sufficient time had passed with no seeming forthcoming answers to my questions, but the sub-thread is now gone, and that's what I get for wandering off to cook dinner. Just as I was about to send that one flying, the post editor rudely informed me there was "some discrepancy in my form and to please back out and try again." LOL

And so it goes..