My prediction for the final healthcare compromise

[Shagbark Hickory]

My prediction for the final healthcare compromise looks like this.

The mandate will have a trigger.

Rather than a public option, there will be the creation of non-profit option or optionS, plural (it will probably be called the non-profit option)

The non-profit option would be a free market bazaar of private companies. This will provide some competition to for-profits. Once there is sufficient non-profit companies, the mandate goes into effect.

There would also be a trigger for a public option, a government-run non-profit if the private "non-profit" option didn't materialize.

There will be subsidies for the ultra poor to buy into the NPO. And by ultra poor, I'm talking "soup kitchen poor", not the middle class. We're on our own.

Anyone despite employment status can join a NPO, except of course in states that opt out.

So, essentially, 2 triggers and an opt out.

Rates would not be negotiated by the government but the private NPOs would negotiate rates in a fashion similar to the private health denials companies currently do.

Obviously not ideal but this is my prediction. You've heard it here first from a certified & licensed psychic.

The strong points here are that even though it's privately run, if anyone could join an NPO, it would be strong competition for the health denial companies. On the other hand, unless rates are aggressively negotiated, costs will still rise. There's a risk that the NPOs could be bought out by for-profits and I doubt there will be much regulation to prevent this although there would be that trigger to the public option looming if the number of private NPOs dropped below a certain number of policy holders.

The party-of-no can say they prevented a government takeover of healthcare.
The blue doofs can continue to receive large contributions from the health denial companies.
The party of watered down progress can say they made historic blah blah blah to blah blah blah.

[WI_DEM]

1. as long as making predictions here is mine: The Public Option will be included

but it will include an "opt-out" for states.

[Jackpine Radical]

2. It will be at best a weak, 2% option.

It will be designed to fail by being set up to "capture" all the expensive, terminal cases that the privates want nothing to do with.

Health care "reform" is lost. This is about what I expected when Obama was elected, which is why I didn't really get behind him until it was down to the last 2 (every time I looked at Hillary I got a DLC tasete in my mouth). It seems pretty much in line with what I remember him talking about. I admit there were times when I had my hopes raised that there would be more.

[RDANGELO]

3. For what it's worth, heres mine.

At the last minute, about 54 Democrats will stick together, bypass all the rules, and insert a public option into the bill. The Republicans and Joe Lieberman will go crazy, but it won't do any good. The house will pass the exact same bill. thus eliminating the need for a conference and any more votes.

[lonestarnot]

4. Sounds good to me.

Are we dreaming?

[Shagbark Hickory]

5. Does a PO that only includes 2% sound like a dream or a nightmare?

I keep saying that if there is a mandate to buy private insurance that I will refuse to buy it but if it was a private NPO I would seriously consider it if it was a reasonable cost.