IEA: Washington made us fudge oil data

[ensho]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/business/2009/11/10/iea-washington-made-us-fudge-oil-data


senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

Washington's motive, apparently, is to prevent panic in the markets when traders realise the world has much less oil than we've been told.

The accusation may appear dramatic, but the Guardian's piece is not actually saying anything that wasn't already in the public domain.

Warnings about declining supply and the theory of Peak Oil, have been around for decades, and the IEA's estimates have long been regarded with scepticism.

In its 2007 outlook, the IEA spoke of a decline in production from major sources of 3.7%, but by its 2008 outlook, the numbers had changed radically:

The production-weighted average decline rate worldwide is projected to rise from 6.7% in 2007 to 8.6% in 2030.

-long snip-

So where next? If the IEA, and OPEC in particular, finally do release some real data on oil reserves, will Washington's fears be realised?

Simmons thinks so. He has bet that the price of oil will be at least 200 dollars per barrel on average for the whole of 2010.
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[bertman]

1. So, what about those HUGE reserves that are waiting under Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan

and the ice caps at the North Pole? The powers-that-be have been telling us for years that the oil reserves are about to disappear, but then another HUGE find comes on line. Am I missing something here?