10 Senate seats most likely to flip
fter struggling for two consecutive cycles on the Senate battlefield, Republicans seem poised to make a comeback in 2010. With 37 seats up for grabs — and Democrats defending 19 of them — the GOP is flexing its muscles in Democratic-leaning states like Delaware, Connecticut and Illinois. Recruiting coups by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas are one big reason Republicans feel a new sense of confidence. Democrats, meanwhile, are taking on an increasingly defensive crouch as the party in power, which must defend President Barack Obama’s ambitious — and expensive — agenda.
Without further ado, here is POLITICO’s list of the 10 best pickup opportunities among next year’s Senate contests.
Delaware
Republicans turned Delaware into their top pickup target when they nabbed Rep. Mike Castle, the state’s nine-term moderate congressman, to run for the open seat. Delaware remains a deeply Democratic state, with Vice President Joe Biden — the former occupant of the seat in question — as the state’s political godfather. But Democrats and Republicans agree that Castle is the only Republican in the state who could make this a real race. Now all eyes are on Biden’s son, Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, who is said to be leaning toward a run.
Connecticut
Republicans would typically have no business contesting a Senate seat in deeply blue Connecticut, but given Chris Dodd’s still-tenuous political standing in his home state, Republicans see a possible pickup. Dodd has seen his approval ratings dip well below 50 percent as he has come under scrutiny for his ties to Countywide Financial. Former Rep. Rob Simmons once seemed to be the obvious GOP contender, but Simmons now faces an increasingly difficult primary against former Ambassador Tom Foley, anti-tax activist Peter Schiff and deep-pocketed former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.
Colorado
The White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are circling the wagons around appointed Sen. Michael Bennet — a clear sign that the Washington Democratic establishment views former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff’s potentially divisive primary challenge as a threat to the party’s hold on the seat. Even with the support, Bennet might now be forced to move to the left on a series of tough votes — starting with health care — that could put him at a disadvantage in a tough general election campaign. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is the likely GOP nominee, but she faces a contested primary.
Nevada
Republicans missed out when Rep. Dean Heller and former Rep. Jon Porter — two potential contenders who could have put a serious scare into Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid — passed on the race. The GOP is left with former state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, a less-than-perfect nominee who is certain to come under a hail of fire from Reid, who has nearly $9 million in his campaign bank account. It’s Reid, more than any other 2010 incumbent, whose fortunes are tied to the national political environment, and his reelection will be viewed as a referendum on the Democratic majority and Obama.
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