Whistleblower: Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure- Less Oil Out There Than IEA Reports

[Orwellian_Ghost]

Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure, Says Whistleblower
Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official

by Terry Macalister

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.



The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

[FarCenter]

1. There is probably enough oil in the Middle East and Central Asia to get to 120 million barrels/day

But it would require massive military success allowing free exploitation by the major Western oil companies.

So it is very unlikely to happen.

In fact, if countries can control the rate of exploitation, it is likely we won't see higher production than currently.

Oil in the ground is appreciating faster than would any asset that you could buy by pumping it and selling it. Therefore, even slower exploitation is likely to be economically optimum for Middle East and Central Asian counntries.

[blindpig]

2. For how long?

That's the big question.

As you say, oil in the ground is appreciating, all the more reason for the corps to get their hands on it, ASAP. National sovereignty is no big deal, as has been shown time and again, where there's a will there's away.

[FarCenter]

3. Long enough for lots of oil company execs to retire very wealthy men

Long enough to keep the cheap energy party going in the US economy for a decade or two.