NADA Chief Economist Estimates Clunker Cost Per Incremental Vehicle Sold at Around $4,600

[DainBramaged]

Describes Edmunds.com Clunker Estimate of $24,000 as 'Overstated and Misleading'

McLEAN, Va. (Nov. 3, 2009) – After a thorough review of the Cash for Clunkers program, the chief economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), Dr. Paul Taylor, determined that the cost of each incremental vehicle sold was around $4,587. An incremental sale is a sale that would not otherwise have occurred without the Clunkers program.

His findings bring into serious question the methodology behind the $24,000 estimate promoted last week by the car-buying Web site Edmunds.com.

“It’s really not that hard to determine a credible cost estimate for the Clunkers program,” says Taylor. “You subtract projected sales from actual sales for July and August when the Clunkers program was operating, and divide the program’s $3 billion by that number.”

Taylor says that, based on sales volume for previous months, a realistic projection of auto sales for July and August would be around 1,600,000. Actual sales for those two months totaled 2,253,963. The difference is 653,963. That’s the number of incremental sales generated by the Clunkers program. Divide the program’s $3 billion by that number and you get $4,587, the average cost per incremental Clunker sale.

Taylor says the methodology used by Edmunds.com in its analysis of the Cash for Clunkers program is “fundamentally flawed.”

“The analysis by Edmunds.com is wrong on the two main points that it tries to make. First, because of its flawed methodology, the study can’t form the basis for measuring the program’s impact or costs. Secondly, and more importantly, the analysis clouds understanding and misleads rather than clarifies the true state of auto sales and the economy,” Taylor added.

http://www.nada.org/MediaCenter/News+Releases/EconomistClunkersAnalysis.htm

[madrchsod]

1. 5 full time employees and 5 temps where my daughter works.

the cash for clunkers put ten people to work. the problem now is january to april. the orders are`t coming in beyond two weeks.

they did`t figure the employment the program created.

[DainBramaged]

2. IT AMAZES ME HOW QUIET THIS THREAD IS. so many HAD A NEGATIVE OPINION OF THE PROGRAM

now I'm positive most of them weren't Dems to begin with.......