October: 190,000 Jobs Lost, Unemployment Rate hits 10.2%

[tritsofme]

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2009


The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarm
payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in con-
struction, manufacturing, and retail trade.

Household Survey Data

In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7
million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent,
the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in
December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million,
and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.7 per-
cent) and whites (9.5 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult
women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.6 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and
Hispanics (13.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment
rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1,
A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of
unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month
at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in
October, falling to 58.5 percent. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes refer-
red to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in October at 9.3
million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been
cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October,
reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October,
up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Dis-
couraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 190,000 in October. In the most re-
cent 3 months, job losses have averaged 188,000 per month, compared with losses
averaging 357,000 during the prior 3 months. In contrast, losses averaged 645,000
per month from November 2008 to April 2009. Since December 2007, payroll employment
has fallen by 7.3 million. (See table B-1.)

Construction employment decreased by 62,000 in October. Monthly job losses have
averaged 67,000 during the most recent 6 months, compared with an average decline
of 117,000 during the prior 6 months. October job losses were concentrated in
nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in heavy construction
(-14,000). Since December 2007, employment in construction has fallen by 1.6 mil-
lion.

Manufacturing continued to shed jobs (-61,000) in October, with losses in both
durable and nondurable goods production. Over the past 4 months, job losses in
manufacturing have averaged 51,000 per month, compared with an average monthly
loss of 161,000 from October 2008 through June 2009. Manufacturing employment has
fallen by 2.1 million since December 2007.

Retail trade lost 40,000 jobs in October. Employment declines were concentrated
in sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (-16,000) and in department
stores (-11,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 18,000
in October.

Health care employment continued to increase in October (29,000). Since the start
of the recession, health care has added 597,000 jobs.

Temporary help services has added 44,000 jobs since July, including 34,000 in
October. From January 2008 through July 2009, temporary help services had lost
an average of 44,000 jobs per month.

The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm
payrolls was unchanged at 33.0 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek rose
by 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.2 hour over the
month. (See table B-2.)

In October, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on
private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.72. Over the past
12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.4 percent, while average weekly
earnings have risen by only 0.9 percent due to declines in the average workweek.
(See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from -201,000
to -154,000, and the change for September was revised from -263,000 to -219,000.

_____________
The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday,
December 4, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


Not a good report at first blush

[Razoor]

1. ouch

thats not good at all

[nc4bo]

2. The bleeding continues. nt

[bigdarryl]

3. I think one of the things the Congress and President need to do is REPEL NAFTA

Stop companies from shutting down in this country and moving over seas for lower wages.

[SoCalDem]

4. A few things that must be considered

in the 1980's (when the rate was this high):

many more women were not in the workforce
we had a LOT more manufacturing & exporting going on
ONE income could still support a family
foreign autos were not the "norm" here
we had not switched to a "service economy"
merger-mania had not yet happened
average citizens were not as in debt as now

when the recovery "happened", there were still jobs to go back to

as companies have merged, sold off assets and then bellyed-up, and millions of jobs have of-shored, there are just not enough jobs..even in a good ecoonomy

[Toucano]

6. I think that's a very good point.

In some analysis yesterday, I heard someone saying that we don't want "those type of low paying jobs", referring to manufacturing jobs.

Said by someone who has a job, of course. And said as if those jobs are inherently low paying.

I think your analysis is much more correct.

[jpljr77]

5. Seasonally adjusted "real" unemployment rate rises to 17.5%

Inching closer to 20%.

The "real" unemployment rate is given every month by BLS, but it is hidden in an appendix (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm)

The U-6 measure rose to 17.5% in October. U-6 is defined as "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers."

More definitions: Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

10.2% is the headline number, the candy-coated measure that has become most common. U-6 is a better gauge of how much people are struggling.

[tritsofme]

8. You make their motives sound sinister.

U6 is one of six measures the BLS releases on labor underutilization, it is an interesting number, but it is absurd to refer to it as the "real" unemployment rate.

[jpljr77]

13. Honestly, I don't see how U-6 is not considered the "real" unemployment rate

The headline unemployment rate does not include workers who want/need a job but are so discouraged, and have been out of work so long, they've given up looking. It also does not include those that are forced into part time worker, thus having their income slashed.

I think U-6 is a much better gauge of the employment situation in the country.

And it's not "sinister." They do report the U-6 number. I just think people need to know what goes into the headline unemployment rate, and more importantly, what doesn't.

[SoCalDem]

11. the method is suspect to me, because it's based on NUMBER of jobs

and in the real world, the devil's in the details

$20hr manufacturing job w/benefits lost = plus one job lost

worker "finds" 2 bullshit jobs at $8 hr w/NO benefits = 2 jobs found

net gain of 1 job ..but in NO way "equal" to the job lost (and probably permanently lost)

[mucifer]

7. I'm still wondering about all the green jobs promised.

Doesn't seem to be happening. Even here in Chicago public transportation is falling apart and the fares are going insanely high and they are cutting services.

[Toots]

9. I would say this calls for more Wall Street Bonuses and maybe even a bit more "Bailout" money

I just know it is going to "trickle down" to us peons just as those very wise Republicans keep telling us

[wellst0nev0ter]

10. I Swear To God...

If I hear one poster crowing about how we have higher productivity because the remaining workers have to pick up the slack, I'll...

[CTyankee]

12. I have a dear friend who is working more hours than she puts in for because

she's afraid that if she does, she could lose her job. She has to put in extra time because otherwise the job would not get done and then she could also be in danger of losing her job. I advised her to sit down with her boss and work something out...I know her boss and she's a very nice person but if it looks like the job isn't sustainable at the level it is, there might be a shake up. It makes me feel sick for my friend. She's wonderful and very dedicated to her (nonprofit) job and not just to the paycheck. I did tell her her boss needs to know what's going on, but my friend has made her decision not to let on about her increased, nonremunerated, hours of work...