Numbers in VA Debacle Show that Dem Turnout Low Because Party Base Turned-Off

leveymg

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Thu Nov-05-09 01:12 PM
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Numbers in VA Debacle Show that Dem Turnout Low Because Party Base Turned-Off

Edited on Thu Nov-05-09 02:08 PM by leveymg

Don't believe the soothing words of the Blue Dog pollsters, big-wigs and other DC smoke screeners. The disastrous defeat of Democratic candidate Craig Deeds in the Virginia Governor's race was not a local thing. Not a flash in the pan, at all. The SCALE of the defeat was certainly not typical. One has to go back more than half a century to find a similar State House massacre in the Old Dominion.

The 60/40 defeat of Deeds is not typical of VA Governor's races. Nor, was the comparatively low Dem turnout. Put the two together, and you have a major event that some of the party leadership don't want you talking about. Here are the numbers that show what happened.

In 2008, Obama received 52.6 percent of the nearly 3.7 million votes cast in Virginia's presidential contest, about 2 million votes. He is now viewed favorably by 44 percent of Virginians, down about 8 percent. By comparison, Deeds polled only 815,000 votes, only 41 percent of the total cast on Tuesday, a mere 40 percent of what Obama received last year. That is a huge drop-off, even considering the lower turnout in the Governor's race compared to the '08 Presidential race.

Historically, VA Governor's races turn out somewhat fewer voters than Presidential contests, averaging about a 15 point difference. The turnout in the state for the '04 and '08 Presidential elections was 62 and 68 percent of the registered voters, while across the state in the 2005 gubernatorial election, turnout was approximately 45 percent. On Tuesday, voter total was about 3 million out of 5.4 million registered voters, 55 percent turnout, which is a relatively high for a Gubenatorial race. Historically low turnouts were in '97, when turnout was about 48 percent of registered voters, the lowest for a Virginia governor's race since 1965. Unfortunately, a disproportionate percentage voted Republican this year for state-wide offices, which is a big change from four years ago when Tim Kaine won with 52 percent, just about the same percentage polled by Mark Warner in 2001.

The last candidate for Virginia governor to win more than 60 percent of the vote was Democrat Albertis S. Harrison Jr., who in 1961 won 63.8 percent.

Lessons learned from VA - 1) turn on the base or the Dems will lose more elections; 2) this was not a typical VA election by recent standards. Lots of Republicans turned out, while Democratic-leaning voters didn't. The reason is obvious - Democratic candidates lose when they run toward the almighty center-right, and the Progressive base doesn't turn out the vote.

The Blue Dog strategy of steering toward the center-right is now a proven election-loser. As the GOP has shown, keeping the base mobilized wins elections - only a Progressive agenda, of the type that Obama promised, will mobilize the Democratic Party. He and a new set of Democratic leaders must deliver, or we are sunk.

If the Dem leadership continues on this course, we will lose again, and again, until we are once more the minority party in America. I am beginning to believe that is all that the DLC types know how to be or even want to be. They're Losers, yet again.