The Election's Carry-Over Lessons? There Are Fewer Than You Think

[DainBramaged]

The gubernatorial wing of the GOP – the last bastion of pragmatists in an ideologically rigid party – was probably the major victor Tuesday night amid a series of surprising off-year election results from East Coast states.

Chris Christie, the former federal prosecutor who will become the GOP governor of reliably Democratic New Jersey, pulled off an upset by defeating free-spending but unpopular incumbent Jon Corzine by 100,000 votes. After fending off a conservative challenger in the June primary, Christie (strongly aided by the Republican Governors Association) railed against the state's highest-in-the-nation property taxes and continually reminded voters that he was not Corzine.

In Virginia, a state that a year ago embodied the emerging Barack Obama majority, Republican Bob McDonnell romped home, as expected, with 59 percent of the vote by emphasizing jobs and feigning near-amnesia over a controversial 1989 master's thesis that stressed strong right-wing views on women in the workplace and homosexuality. Facing lackluster Democrat Creigh Deeds, McDonnell benefited from an electorate that was disproportionately Republican. According to exit polls, Virginia voters who turned out for the gubernatorial election backed John McCain over Obama in 2008 by a margin of 51-to-43 percent.

For all the glib television talk about a dramatic GOP resurgence ("If you're a blue-state Democrat, the Virginia results must scare the heck out of you," Karl Rove declared on Fox News), the Democrats did win the only vigorously contested congressional race on Tuesday's ballot. In far upstate New York, Democrat Bill Owens, a Plattsburgh attorney, narrowly defeated Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, whose nationally ballyhooed insurgent campaign had driven the moderate Republican candidate from the race. The result of this over-hyped battle for "the soul of the Republican Party" was that the North Country of New York has sent a Democrat to Congress for the first time since the 19th century.

The lasting political lesson from Tuesday night may have nothing – absolutely nothing – to do with Congress, Obama's political future or Democrats vs. Republicans. The little-noticed message buried in the returns was the dramatic collapse of mega-rich self-funded candidates, which may signal a populist protest against the era of political excess.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/11/04/the-elections-carry-over-lessons-there-are-fewer-than-you-thin/?icid=main

[The Magistrate]

1. There Are Two Large 'Carry-Overs' from Yesterday, Sir

The first comes from Virginia, and is that running as a Republican is fatal for a Democrat. Mr. Deeds strove to distance himself from President Obama, concentrated on older white voters, and announced he would if elected opt-out of any public option. The result was a depressed turn out of Democrats, particularly younger and minority voters, who saw little reason to support the man, and understandably. 'Blue Dogs', or rather 'Bush Dogs', in our Party had best take note. If they do not run as Democrats next year, they are for the chop, and no mistake.

The second comes from New York, and is that the civil war in the Republican party is only begun, and will be exceedingly vicious. The result, a slim majority victory for Rep. Owens, is the best outcome possible from our point of view. The 'tea-bagger' movement will not take from this the lesson that they are a decided minority even in Republican distrcts; the belief they are the true and rightful majority in the whole country is too deeply ingrained in their self image. They will take the view that their defeat owed to the treacherous behavior of 'establishment' Republicans, and will re-double their efforts into next year's Republican primaries to over-throw these internal enemies. On the other hand, 'establishment' Republicans will take the lesson that the influence of the 'tea-baggers' in primaries is a disaster waiting to happen, and will redouble their efforts, at the local level, to oppose and contain this mob in primary contests. But without the 'tea-baggers', they cannot muster the votes to prevail in general elections either. The marquee leadership of the 'tea-baggers' being composed of political figures who are out of office, and have no chance of regaining it, will behave with even greater irresponsibility, whipping up the mob to new heights of frenzy against Republican officials and their prefered candidates. This could reach 'perfect storm' levels for a full fracture into a third party 'true conservative' splinter in the enemy camp next year.

[DainBramaged]

2. Excellent analysis, as usual

I am waiting for the next shoe to drop in the GOP food fight. Rushblo attacked Newt today, and that doesn't bode well for the old guard of the party.


I'd love to provide them with pies to throw....