California, Maine, Is Iowa next?

[cecilfirefox]

National Organization of Marriage is going to target Iowa next, this is no unseen bit of news. The question I have for all of you is, especially you Iowans, is how likely will they succeed? I'm under the impression that the legislature is decidedly democratic and thus it will most certainly never come up for a vote, but that if the Governor is a Republican that person may try to stop it via executive order(totally illegal, Iowa Supreme Court would smack it down).

Thoughts peoples?

Prayers? :/

- Cecilfirefox

[tridim]

1. Book it, it will happen.

The regressive bigots will never stop until all the rights of people they hate are gone.

[tonysam]

6. If the voters can vote on it, yes

The voting public will never, ever vote in SSM. Not in any state. Ever.

[madrchsod]

2. right now the biggest concern in iowa is the crops and the weather

once that problem is settled maybe sometime after spring planting people will be concerned.i`m sure this next election cycle the wingnuts will be popping up across iowa

[rox63]

3. It will be more difficult in Iowa, since it was based on an IA Supreme Court decision

It's not as easy to amend the constitution in IA as it is in CA. In CA, they were able to do it by a simple referendum. Doesn't work that way in IA.

[cecilfirefox]

4. I'm under the same impression that it's there to stay in Iowa, but I thought our chances in Maine

were great to. <- Nervousness. /sigh

[rox63]

9. Me too...

:(

[theHandpuppet]

5. Keep an eye on D.C. as well

Equality foes in the District, headed by local pastors from the black community and the D.C. archdiocese, are already gearing up to put our rights on a ballot measure even BEFORE equality has been approved!

When they can brazenly get away with this hateful shit on the virtual doorstep of Mr. Obama's house, they can do it anywhere -- Maine, Iowa, Calif makes no difference.

[Tim01]

11. Get away with it? Obama said from the start he was against same sex marriage.

That nonsense about "fierce advocate" or whatever is just a political trick that allows people to believe whatever they want to. It promises absolutely nothing.

[rurallib]

7. OK - because of the current rules it is very unlikely to happen before 2016

at the earliest.
I am from Iowa. I wrote extensively on this last May. I will try to remember all the roadblocks to overturning the Supreme Court decision. It is not just a simple vote.
Let me say first that our Supreme Court IIRC has 4 Dem appointments and 3 Rep appointments. The Chief justice is republican appointee. The decision was unanimous. The opinion was written by the CJ.

In order to change the decision there will need to be a constitutional amendment. The constitution is not easily changed in Iowa. About 3 times in my 60 years I think.
There are two ways. One is by calling a constitutional convention. That will be voted on next year as it is every ten years. Republicans are trying to rouse their supporters to make a big noise for a CC but it is unlikely. Right now, both houses are Democratic, so there is little desire to bring this up since the legislature sets up the rules etc. Were a CC to be called, all issues would be on the table, not just marriage. There are several issues where the GOP could lose their asses, so cooler heads in the republican party are actually scared of a Consttutiona convention. It could be pretty dicey for the repugs to really push this.

Second would be the more conventional method which is passage by two legislatures with an intervening election. So if it passed next year, it would also have to pass the 2011-2012 legislature. Then it is on the ballot at the next general election for a popular vote. That could be in 2012 also.
But since Mike Gronstal as leader in the senate refuses to bring it to the floor, it won't see the light of day at least until 2011. Iowa elects 1/2 of it's senate (25 members) every other election. We currently have a 30 - 20 majority in the senate. The chances of the Dems losing 6 seats is pretty slim in 2010 at least as of now.
So the earliest the repugs would have control would be 2013. Two legislatures with an intervening election would be 1) 2013-2014 2) election 2014 3) 2015-2016 legislature. So the earliest it would be on the ballot would be 2016.

A couple of repug candidates have tried to claim they can suspend the order. They can't. It is that simple. If they suspended it the next day it would be over ruled and back in force. Pushing it would create a crisis I am fairly sure such a governor would lose.

As of a recent poll gay marriage barely made it into the top ten of issues garnering @6%. Most Iowans really don't care. They are much, much more concerned about jobs, health care, the economy, education, farm prices, global warming etc. Running to overturn gay marriage won't get many votes.
But of course the crazies get the headlines.
BTW by 2016 gay marriage will have been in effect for 7 years. Changing it would leave Iowa with quite a mess to unravel.

But I could be wrong, but I believe it will be a long time before it is changed if ever.

[cecilfirefox]

8. Thank you for such a detailed response,

And let's pray that justice and equality are here to stay.

)O( Namyohorengekyo.

- Cecilfirefox

[FiveGoodMen]

10. One simple thought on this: GOD DAMN THE CHURCHES!

That is all.