Virginia: The Map Says It All

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2009 Gubernatorial Results

[rd_kent]

1. I see the map, not what it "says". PLease explain.

[Burma Jones]

2. Deeds did poorly in Northern Virginia

Deeds did not come across as a competent candidate, didn't impress people with his organization, didn't make people believe he was with it enough to get the job done. He lost the Suburban vote and that's how you lose Virginia.

[beac]

5. Enjoy your horrible traffic, NOVA! You just bought yourself four more years of it.

:mad:

[Burma Jones]

6. I live just across the river in Maryland

And work from home mostly.

When I do have to go to meetings, they're at Quantico or The Pentagon......These meetings are ALWAYS planned around traffic, it's the number one damper on business in NOVA......

[beac]

11. And yet Deeds got hammered for even dancing around the idea of raising taxes to improve roadways.

I've been a Virginian my whole life, but idiocy like this makes it hard to be a proud one.

[Statistical]

15. Deeds got destroyed because he had NO plan.

How was he going to improve transportation in VA?

How about a single project, a single plan, a single expansion, an idea, a concept, a vision?

Simply saying I am going to raise taxes is unlikely to get you some votes.

Saying "I intend to raise $38 million dollars to widen hwy xyz from 4 lanes to 6 lanes and add an HOV lane. Mr. Smith here from DOT says that will reduce rush hour delays by an average of 27 minutes each way. Also I have here Mr. Doe from xyz company and they are considering opening a plant/call center/r&D facility in VA but are concerned about lack of transportation"

That gets you votes. People want an assurance you aren't going to raise taxes and waste them.

Deeds entire campaign can be summed up as
a) That "other guy" is bad
b) I will raise taxes.

In the last 2 months I must have seen 100 Deeds ads on TV. Not a single one was positive. Not a single one talked about HOW he would improve transportation.

I mean with a strategy like that he never had a chance.

[beac]

22. Deeds ran a crap campaign, as I have said.

I'm still, and will remain, shocked that Virginians think the a man like Bob McDonnell should be our governor. It was a 'hold your nose and vote' election. I just can't believe that anyone thinks McDonnell will do anything but make matters worse. And that's without even addressing his American Taliban leanings. :mad:

[beac]

3. I vote in one of those TINY blue dots, so at least I know 70% of my neighbors aren't idiots.

Interesting that the Tidewater area went so heavily for Deeds. Guess 'the troops' don't think much of McDonnell's Regent U degree!

Pleasantly surprised by Roanoke's strong blue showing as well.


All I can say about NOVA is :wtf:????? Do they think McNoTaxes is going to hit up Jesus for road-improvement cash????

[WillieW]

7. These election focused on local issues

[Statistical]

9. Tidewater heavily for deeds?

Which map are you looking at?

On Average Deeds underperformed Obama by about 10%-15% in Tidewater.

[beac]

12. I'm looking at the linked map.

Note all the blue in the Tidewater area.

I wasn't comparing Deeds to Obama, but pointing out that Deeds WON in some areas thick with military and their families.

Norfolk, 60% for Deeds.
Hampton, 58% for Deeds.
Portsmouth, 60% for Deeds.
Surry, 54% for Deeds.

In an election where McTaliban won by 60%, I call those numbers 'heavily' for Deeds.

[Statistical]

13. Now compare them to Obama numbers.

Also look at rest of Hampton Roads.
Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Suffolk.

[beac]

18. I'm not, and never was, making a comparison with Obama's numbers. n/t

[Statistical]

21. Well then compare them to any pro-Dem year.

Without comparison the numbers are useless.

There will always be districts that are blue even in a landslide red year. What matters is the spread.

Deeds took counties he needed 70% to win with <=60%.
He lost in counties he needed to be close by 10%+.

His tidewater performance was bad in both areas.

[beac]

23. Deeds won all the same Tidewater districts that Webb did, with the exception of Suffolk.

And, please excuse me, but I am going to sign off now. I'm not interested in arguing with you anymore. It's only aggravating my already bad mood.

Peace.

[Statistical]

25. Yup he "won" all the same counties by about 8% less vote which was enough to lose the state.

Norfolk Webb: 65%, Deeds: 60% = -5% from 2008
Hampton Webb: 64%, Deeds: 58% = -8% from 2008
Portsmouth Webb: 66%, Deeds: 60% = -6% from 2008
Newport News Webb: 56%, Deeds: 50% = -6% from 2008

Virginia Beach Webb: 47%, Deeds: 36% = -11% from 2008
Chesapeake Webb: 48%, Deeds: 40% = -8% from 2008
Suffolk Webb: 50%, Deeds: 44% = -6% from 2008

Pulling a small "win" in Hampton Roads is not sufficient to win the state because the rural vote will ALWAYS be 70/30 GOP.

Web kept it close in Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk
Web pulled in 20%+ margins in rest of the cities.

Deeds did neither.

[beac]

26. You know, I tried to be polite, but you seem to be getting off on being rude to me.

Did I ONCE say it 'didn't matter'???? NO! I did not.

CONGRATULATIONS your nastines has made me even more angry than I was when I logged on today. Hope you are pleased with yourself.


I did phone-banking and GOTV both here in VA AND for NO On 1 in Maine, so I am okay in my heart and feel sorry for you that tearing down other Dems gives you joy.

[Statistical]

27. Tearing down? You statement "tidewater went heavily for Deeds" is wrong.

I corrected it. You got pissed.

Tidewater did NOT go heavily for Deeds. Deeds support in Tidewater was less than any successful Democratic candidate in last 10 years.
Deeds lost specifically because of weak support in Tidewater and NOVA.

Sorry the reality of that upsets you but facts are facts and if you state a wrong one, get corrected, then cling to it, you shouldn't be surpised if someone keeps correcting you.

Maybe your GOVT was in Tidewater and you feel personally vested in the outcome of that region? Maybe I ruined your "personal victory" in Tidewater "performance" but the reality is no Democratic candidate could EVER win with Tidewater numbers as low as Deed got. The GOP has a locked in 2:1 split in rural VA and to overcome that requires a real margin in Tidewater and NOVA.

[beac]

29. Maybe you're just an ass.

Seriously, what do YOU have 'invested' in continuing to be shitty to me? You've said your piece OVER AND OVER AND OVER, yet you keep coming back to be nasty to me.

Don't bother replying. I have only two people on 'ignore.' You'll be the third.

[beac]

19. dupe

[Ozymanithrax]

4. Just move the slide to 2005 and 2001, and you can see what happened.

Democrats did not vote in areas they won in those other elections.

[Statistical]

8. Blue win in VA is 3 zone strategy

The Dem strategy to win VA is simple

1) Win big in Northern VA
2) Win big in Democratic stronghold: Richmond, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Hampton.
3) Keep it close ("hold the line") in rest of Hampton Roads = southern population center (Chesapeake, Va Beach, Suffolk, Newport News)

Then you can (and will) lose rest of rural state by any margin.
That is what Obama did and won. Now compare that to Deeds.

Northern VA:
Loudoun County: Obama: 54%, Deeds: 39%
Fairfax County: Obama: 61%, Deeds: 49%
Arlington County: Obama: 73%, Deeds: 66%
This is blue country. To win in VA a Dem MUST will this area by 60/40 or better. Deeds underperformed by 10%. Winning but not by enough to overcome rural votes.

Southern Dem "strongholds"
Richmond: Obama: 80%, Deeds: 69%
Norfolk: Obama: 72%, Deeds: 60%
Hampton: Obama: 70%, Deeds: 58%
Portsmouth: Obama: 70%, Deeds: 60%
Deeds didn't do too bad here but 60% doesn't give him much of a margin.

Keep it close areas ("hold the line"):
Virginia Beach: Obama: 50%, Deeds: 36%
Chesapeake: Obama: 51%, Deeds: 40%
Suffolk: Obama: 57%, Deeds: 44%
Dems will usually lose these but the goal is to keep it close to prevent GOP racking up military votes.
Deeds got destroyed her. Underperforming Obama by 15%.

A secure win requires all 3 areas. 2 of 3 is going to be close because GOP has the "bonus rural" zone. 1 of 3 is a loss which is what Deeds did. Only performed well in major cities and even there is was less than any successful Democrat.

[beac]

10. Your figures for the Tidewater area do not seem to jib with those on the map.

Where did your stats come from?

[Statistical]

14. From the map. # by #.

Not sure how you are confused.

Just to make sure I double checked them and they are exactly from the map.

Norfolk: Obama: 72%, Deeds: 60% = -12% from 2008
Hampton: Obama: 70%, Deeds: 58% = -12% from 2008
Portsmouth: Obama: 70%, Deeds: 60% = -10% from 2008

Virginia Beach: Obama: 50%, Deeds: 36% = -14% from 2008
Chesapeake: Obama: 51%, Deeds: 40% = -11% from 2008
Suffolk: Obama: 57%, Deeds: 44% = -13% from 2008

Deeds underperformed the area he needed to win 70/30.
Deeds didn't hold the line in the area he needed to at least make it close.

[beac]

17. I think it was your cherry-picking of only the Tidewater areas that went red instead of blue that

caused my confusion.

I agree that Deeds ran a terrible campaign. Being outspent 2-to-1 didn't help either. I'm hoping the $$$ that the GOP poured into these off-year elections has drained their coffers some for 2010. Not to mention the major bucks being siphoned off by Sarah Palin, who has convinced her idiot minions to donate generously to her many slush funds.


In the end, though I am pissed at my fellow Democrats who didn't bother to vote, the turnover in the Governor's mansion is just about a clockwork thing here in VA and McDonnell is inheriting a world of trouble that his inane policies will only make worse. We'll have a Dem again in 2013. Unfortunately, until someone is willing to speak the basic truth that you can't improve conditions without money (ie. raise taxes) and convince people that paying taxes is patriotic, Virginia is doomed to this silly cycle.

[Statistical]

20. I am usually for raising taxes but I diagree with Deeds on this one.

VA has AAA bond rating and bond investors are flocking to security.

It is also recession and virtually every economist will warn of raising taxes in a recession.
Issuing a bond to pay for transportation rather than substantially raising taxes during the recession is not a bad idea.

He should have at least shown some flexibility in being willing to raise taxes after economy recovers.

[MineralMan]

16. Won in the cities. Lost in the rural areas.

Typical southern pattern, really. I know that parts of VA aren't really the South, but...

[Soylent Brice]

24. did you see what it looked like in 2001??

what the hell is going on in VA?

[dgibby]

28. Such a shame.

Creigh is a really nice guy. Glad to see my home county (Alleghany) went for him. Just wish he'd run a better campaign.