Owens (D) winning 51%-44% with 34% reporting...

[usregimechange]

:kick:

Need some good news tonight...

updating based on % reporting.

[rep the dems]

1. Who's Owens? nt

[Xipe Totec]

8. NY, 23rd district

endorsed by Scozzafava, the Republican candidate, who dropped out of the race.

[usregimechange]

11. US congressional seat, map here:

[Tesha]

9. The Dem. He'd be the first in more than 130 years. (NT)

[harkadog]

16. Dem represented the district until 1993.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_23rd_congressional_district

[MattBaggins]

27. Bzzzzztt

The 23rd used to be in NYC. 1993 is when it got moved Upstate.

[harkadog]

43. So why are you calling it the 23rd?

What was that area before? Where is the link?

[MattBaggins]

49. Uhhh I was in Germany in 1993 so they didn't ask me how

I felt about them changing the numbers around ;)

Link? Your own link clearly shows it.

[harkadog]

92. But you felt the need to claim what the district # was

[Happyhippychick]

33. Wrong again - read the link provided in the other post where you claimed this

[harkadog]

41. Read it and replied.

You didn't tell the truth

[Happyhippychick]

46. Obviously you are here to stir up shit. You can't argue with facts - be gone.

Don't bother to reply, you've been ignored.

[harkadog]

93. Ignored by anonymous electrons on the internet

I feel so bad

[ck4829]

61. The non-crazy guy

[gristy]

2. source?

[Happyhippychick]

6. Here

http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/upstate.html

[usregimechange]

7. Here

http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/other.html

[Happyhippychick]

3. That would be the best news actually. The teabaggers would go down in flames and the 'pubes will be

furious with them for fucking it up for Scozzafava.

[usregimechange]

4. Same with 27% reporting

[Roland99]

5. From 51.5 - 43.2 .. now at 50.6 - 44.4

[tabatha]

10. If I had to choose any of the 3 big ones tonight,

I would choose a Dem for this race.

Christie will screw up as will Bob McDonnell.

[K8-EEE]

12. So if Owens wins is the LOL "liberal" media going to say that

Moderate Repukes do better than pitchforkers endorsed by the Nanook Nazi?

[Happyhippychick]

15. A democrat hasn't won in this district since the Civil War. We know a 'pube won't be winning.

All we need is this asshole to go down in flames.

[harkadog]

18. Did the Civil War end in 1993?

Dems represented the district until 1993. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_23rd_congressional_district

[Happyhippychick]

21. Wrong. Read this

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5072/amazing-political-history-of-ny23

[Frances]

28. Thanks for the link

Very interesting

[harkadog]

39. Interesting link

But it is wrong to say the NY 23 has been Republican since the Civil War. Some parts have and some parts haven't.

[Muttocracy]

60. no - look at the cities/ counties involved

NY's districts were completed renumbered over the years. Manhattan is not north of the Adirondacks!

1913–1919
Parts of Manhattan
1919–1969
Parts of The Bronx
1969–1971
Parts of The Bronx, Manhattan
1971–1973
Parts of The Bronx
1973–1983
Parts of The Bronx, Westchester
1983–1993
All of Albany, Schenectady
Parts of Montgomery, Rensselaer
1993–2003
All of Chenango, Madison, Oneida, Otsego
Parts of Broome, Delaware, Herkimer, Montgomery, Schoharie
2003–present
All of Clinton, Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis, Madison, Oswego, St. Lawrence
Parts of Essex, Fulton, Oneida

[harkadog]

94. So why did you call it the 23rd?

[Muttocracy]

95. BECAUSE THAT IS THE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT NUMBER!

You're clearly just hear to waste people's time. You're the one making the assumption that a congressional district number is tied to geographic location, when that's not the case. The number of house seats and the geography of districts in a state changes according to population and politics. Do you think they should just use new numbers for new districts and retire the old numbers?

[mdmc]

68. I think I can clear this up for you

actually Muttocracy got the proper info above..


the land that is now NYSCD23 has not been held by a dem in my life.. or in the last 100 years.
But back when I lived in NYSCD20 (NOW nyscd22) the 23rd was down in the city.. and held by a dem..

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

13. I need this race and I need "NO" on overturning gay marriage in Maine!!! n/t

[usregimechange]

14. same with 29% reporting!

[brooklynite]

17. Now 33% in - Owens still ahead 51% - 44%

[geckosfeet]

19. This would be a big symbolic win. Been a puke seat forever.

[usregimechange]

23. Your right, and we would need to scream it to the press

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

20. Any read on which districts have reported?

Are the areas that trend to the Dem coming in early or what?

[usregimechange]

22. I doubt anyone can access more local numbers or would know how to interpret

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

24. I suppose if there is a State of New York elections site, you could

But someone would have to tell us which towns trend to the Democrats and which to the conservatives. I suspect that would be hard in a Repug district.

[usregimechange]

25. We had a local DUer in the district here earlier, lets hope they stop by

[oswaldactedalone]

26. Race Tightening

49.7-45.2 with 39%

[usregimechange]

29. Yep, 50-45. 5% lead but getting tight

[K8-EEE]

30. OMG have you guys SEEN Hoffman TALK? SERIOUSLY BOGGLES THE MIND

THAT ANYBODY WOULD VOTE FOR THAT GOON!

[usregimechange]

37. I can only imagine

[oswaldactedalone]

31. Further tightening

49.1 to 45.5 at 47%

[usregimechange]

34. rounding to 49-46%...

[usregimechange]

36. 54% in still getting closer... 49-46

[LatteLibertine]

32. This would be a nice win

I hope the current trend continues.

Too bad VA got a Regent educated Republican. Ugh :(

[oswaldactedalone]

35. Tightening continues

48.8 - 45.9 at 54%. We need a big enough win to avoid a recount. Probably won't know the winner for a weeks.

[oswaldactedalone]

40. Lead holding steady at 62%

49.3 - 45.5

[usregimechange]

42. Sorry, his lead went from 48.8 to 49.3 so still the same if rounding but a bit better

[usregimechange]

38. 62% in Owens lead expands a bit

[oswaldactedalone]

45. At 63%

Lead holding steady at 49.3 - 45.4

[brooklynite]

44. 63% in - Owens up 49% - 46%

[oswaldactedalone]

48. 64% in

Lead holding steady at 49.3 - 45.5. Up by ~ 3650 votes.

[usregimechange]

47. 64% in, 49.3%-45.5%, Owens continues to lead

[usregimechange]

50. 67% in 49.1-45.5, Owens slipped just a tad

[oswaldactedalone]

52. 68% in

49.1 - 45.5

[usregimechange]

51. 68%, no change

[usregimechange]

53. 69%, Owens lead expands a bit, 49.2-45.4, numbers coming in slowly

[usregimechange]

54. Owens lead holds, 71% in, 49.1-45.2

[Mister Ed]

55. 71% in, and Owens holds a 4% lead!

http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/other.html

[Nikki Stone1]

56. Yeah, we could use the good news.

The bad news is that Palin won in her effort to destroy moderate Republicans. She will take it as a victory no matter what happens.

[usregimechange]

57. Lets hope she keeps up the good work

[Muttocracy]

58. It's mostly Essex, Fulton, Hamilton, and Lewis Counties left

thoughts on those anyone?

I'm guessing Essex Dem, Fulton and Hamilton small population, Lewis mixed?

[usregimechange]

66. Where are you getting the county break down?

[Muttocracy]

73. it's on the North Country news site - totals lagging behind NYT but has counties

Just got a big update I haven't processed mentally yet - but the holes are in 4 counties, two of which have small populations, so there's not many votes to be gained there. Looking good I think...

http://northcountrynow.com/ad_pages/results.htm

[mile18blister]

59. This is why we always need to field a candidate for every race.

Even if it's a long shot. Before the wingnut jumped in we didn't have a prayer. Now I'm hitting refresh with crossed fingers...

[Muttocracy]

62. and that's a very good lesson to take from this - true in local elections too! nt

[shadowknows69]

63. I need to get up too early for this shit.

Why does it have to be this close?

[Mister Ed]

69. Tell me about it. I vowed not to go to bed until the Franken-Coleman race was decided here in MN

I propped my eyes open as long as I could, but I didn't make it to July...

[shadowknows69]

74. Lol

[usregimechange]

64. 74% in and Owens lead is steady, guys it is getting difficult for Hoffman to make it up

[saltpoint]

67. Am I blue? Yes, I'm blue.

Go, Owens.

[cravermi]

65. With 74% reporting, Owens still leading

74% reporting N.Y. District 23

Bill Owens Dem. 53,562 49.1%
Doug Hoffman Con. 49,661 45.5
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 5,949 5.4

[usregimechange]

71. 76% in and lead holds, Owens will win!

[Rowdyboy]

70. Thank all of you guys for your updates....

I recheck this thread every few minutes.

[comrade snarky]

72. Good news so far

I'd love to see Owens take it by the number of votes that go to the withdrawn republican.

Really rub it in their faces.

[oswaldactedalone]

78. 84% in

49.2 - 45.5, up by 4250 votes

[usregimechange]

75. Guys, Hoffman would have to carry something like 80% of the remaining vote to pick up the 4k needed

[Mister Ed]

76. 78% in, and Owens' lead remains steady

78% reporting N.Y. District 23
N.Y. District 23 Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Bill Owens Dem. 54,736 49.0%
Doug Hoffman Con. 51,001 45.6
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 6,061 5.4

[Muttocracy]

77. 84% in on NYT - still going Dem! nt

[usregimechange]

79. Obama trend continues? MSM, where are you?

[oswaldactedalone]

81. 85% in

49.0 - 45.4, lead of about 4670. 11K absentees to be counted up through 11-16 as long as they're postmarked by today. He'd have to get about 3 of 4 to make up the difference.

[tabatha]

80. 85%

N.Y. District 23 Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Bill Owens Dem. 58,787 49.0%
Doug Hoffman Con. 54,518 45.4

[Muttocracy]

82. holding with 86% of precincts... nt

[tabatha]

83. nail-biting

[usregimechange]

85. 4386+ lead can't be made up by Hoffman, imo

[Muttocracy]

86. I agree - he'd need a HUGE percentage of the votes left. nt

[agentS]

84. I can't wait to see the back biting from the Hoffman-Palin campaign

It'll go down like this:
"I knew we shouldn't have listened to her!"
"How dare you! Sarah is the only reason why we were in this to begin with! All hail Palin!"
"Why did you go on TV and say Glenn Beck was your mentor?!"
"Who invited Dick Armey?"
"The teabaggers were right! Schozza backballed us! (weird ironic statement, so yeah)"
"I knew we shouldn't have invited those weird folks! They made us look bad!"

[Muttocracy]

87. creeksneakers had some old election data in another thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=8731230&mesg_id=8731894

basically a mix of districts left - don't think much will change from here on.

[Mister Ed]

88. And may this be a harbinger of things to come here in MN-6, home of Michele Bachmann

For now, though, I just have to be content knowing that she won't be getting a new playmate tonight to join her in the Wackjob Caucus sandbox.

:crazy:

[usregimechange]

89. Owen's wins Hoffman has conceded!

[Muttocracy]

90. woo hoo! nt

[Mister Ed]

91. And to all a good night.

Thank you for starting this thread and keeping it updated.
:toast: