a firm grasp of the real problem.
PART 1
Our economy, or should I say lack of a functioning one with any sort of fundamental structure, drives policy, politics, and the general discourse in American society. I see countless 50% analysis of the snippets that come from CNBC, or Yahoo news.
Here is the reality.
Problem 1-
The M1 Multiplier is, and has been less than 1 for a while now. This means that every dollar, original economy, stimulus, bailout, etc. NEVER reverberates through the system. It gets sucked out for a myriad of reasons.
FED chart here:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULTProblem 2-
The Chinese are kicking our ass in green energy manufacturing. Chinese solar panels costs are currently about 60% of American made panels. Wind generators, about %50. We can't compete. To little, too late. The time for this investment was 20 years ago.
Don't get me wrong, we need them panels, oh gosh, were gonna need them, but we aren't gonna make them. I saw a post regarding Buffets purchase of BNSF, and how it was a statement of American resurgence. This couldn't be closer from the truth. Warren is betting on the Chinese. I will go into detail in a later post on the specifics of how I know this (when I am legally able), but the Chinese are using this real estate decline to make MASSIVE strategic investments in distribution networks, similar to their investments in natural resources in Africa and South America.
Buffets BNSF purchase has some proprietary and significant benefits to enable the rapid coast to coast deployment that will benefit the Chinese importer (read Chinese government). Dovetail this with the real prospect of increases in oil prices, whether driven by speculation or demand, and the efficiency of rail allows Warren to monopolize bulk transport by default, rather than design. Don't forget his well publicized CSX maneuvering.
Problem 3-
For tomorrow night.