Election results for VA and NJ, county maps here

[usregimechange]

Virginia:
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/2009/November_General_Election.html

New Jersey:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/new-jersey.html

[tekisui]

1. knr-thanks.

[HipChick]

2. NBC already called it for Republicans in VA..30% lead

[usregimechange]

3. No results from Richmond yet

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Doesn't matter. The race has already been called and Deeds lost.

[usregimechange]

5. I guess the actual votes don't matter to the M$M

[HughMoran]

6. Repuke is WAY ahead already

Deeds is toast.

[Statistical]

7. Deeds needs to take north by large amounts and remain compeitive in hampton roads to win.

He won by much less than needed in Northern VA and is losing about 2:1 in Hampton Roads.

If he got 100% of vote in Richmond he would still lose. Not too hard to call. To compare it to Obama, Obama lost in Hampton Roads (southern population center) but barely something like 53:47. Deeds lost it by about 66:33. No way to come back by that.

Obama also took fairfax county (north) by about 70:30. Deeds only is taking it by 60:40.

SO he is weaker in blue counties and weaker in red counties. He is done.

[BolivarianHero]

10. This is a disatrous result for the people of VA, and they will come to regret it...

That said, media models tend to be accurate, and this result was largely expected. He'll be unceremoniously dumped after one term, though people that far to the right tend to have a few skeletons hidden along the Appalachian Trail, so he may not even make it.

[Statistical]

18. So much wrong with this

1) VA only allows one term as Gov
2) VA gov has very little real power
3) VA tends to be moderate and will be fine regardless of who is the Governor.

[Neurotica]

26. Actually, our last GOP governor drove the VA economy into the ground

That was Gilmore.

Mark Warner came to the rescue.

We do indeed need to worry. I don't think we will be fine.

[Statistical]

27. Gilmore simply rubber stamped what legislature passed.

Learn about your govt. The gov in VA has virtually no power except Veto power and mobilizing the national guard.

[FBaggins]

12. There's something of a science to this

They just need enough "actual votes" to correlate with their exit polling to make a call (assuming there's a large enough gap).

At this point, any hope is pretty slim. Deeds is down by 24% with 40% reporting. He would need to win almost 60% of the remaining votes to pull it off. Yeah... the smaller red counties report first, but it looks like he can only close about 6-10% of the gap.

[usregimechange]

8. Does,'t look good for Deeds, can't lose Fairfax county and have to do better in DC area

Obama won DC urban areas by 72%, Deeds carrying by 64%.

[FBaggins]

9. Looks slightly worse than the polling

A few counties have 100% reporting:

Westmoreland has Deeds at 41% when Obama won 55% of the vote there
King and Queen county has Deeds at 41% when Obama won 52%

This looks a tad worse than expected. Hopefully NJ does better.

[usregimechange]

11. That is my conclusion, much worse than 08. With the exception of Alleghany county

[usregimechange]

13. Most of Richmond just came in and the vote only shifted 2%

[FBaggins]

15. The President won just under 80% of Richmond City last year

Deeds is at 67% with all but two precincts reporting.

It's clearly over... and running worse than most polling indicated.

Haven't seen whether this holds in NJ or not.

[usregimechange]

22. Yep, that is a poor showing for a Dem in VA

[usregimechange]

14. Ok, giving up on VA, looking at NJ now.

[usregimechange]

16. Initial county/election comparisons from NJ indicate a close contest

[usregimechange]

17. D in 08 (Obama) won Gloucester co by 13%, Corzine is winning by 10%

[usregimechange]

19. Obama in 08 won Hudson co by +47%, Corzine winning by +43%

[FBaggins]

20. With 2% of the precincts reporting?

A bit early for comparison.

[usregimechange]

21. Agreed we should know more shortly

[usregimechange]

23. NJ is going to be close

[usregimechange]

24. No votes from Dem stronghold and population center Essex co yet

[usregimechange]

25. Looking not so good for Corzine now