Nate at 538 calls the three biggies going red. Hmmm...

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

VA, NY and NJ - they have all three going republican tonight, despite two of them being neck and neck....

Fingers crossed we can eke out two of these, anyway (not watching TV - don't want the deafening "referendum on Obama" spin that will be endless and vomitous.

[polichick]

1. Same with A.B. Stoddard and Joey Scar. oyyyyyyyyyyy

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. Bummer :^(

[Bleacher Creature]

3. He's probably right.

Look, at the end of the day: (1) Deeds was a craptastically bad candidate, (2) Corzine has approval ratings in the 30s and (3) NY-23 hasn't gone Dem since the GRANT Administration. These were all longshots.

And funny how they are classified as "biggies", while the special election in CA (in a district that went GOP as recently as 1994) is a non-story. . .

[SoCalDem]

but but but.. it's SUPER TUESDAY

CNNMSNBCFOX said so:rofl:

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. good points, one and all. thanks.

[Bleacher Creature]

8. Kos just said it better than me.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/11/3/800180/-Not-a-referendum-on-Obama

[emulatorloo]

9. Well at least Michele Bachmann will get a new member for her Batshit Crazy Caucus

I am not sure one more wacko will make much difference in the house.

[itsrobert]

4. Delete

double post

[cali]

6. Very unlikely we'll eke any of these out.

well, maybe NJ, but no way VA and odds are against us in NY. Hopefully, we'll win on the marriage equality issue in Maine.

[tekisui]

11. Really, Maine is the only one I am watching.

And my local city races.

[Arugula Latte]

14. Washington state has a referendum on gay rights, too.

*fingers crossed*

:hi:

[tekisui]

18. Thanks, I didn't know that.

What is the issue in WA?

[itsrobert]

7. NY23 can't go republican

The republican all ready dropped out and endorsed the Democrat.

[northzax]

12. Yes, let's call it this way: republicans lost the NY-23

For the first time since 1852. No, that isn't a typo, I did write 1852. Eighteen fifty two. Seven years after the fucking civil war. Anyone who says anything, remind them of that.

[99 Percent Sure]

20. Would this be the US Civil War of which you speak?

Because that civil war happened from 1861 to 1865....

Carry on.

[northzax]

25. er right

I meant before, not after. oh well.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. Dogmudgeon calls 2R, 2D

Edited to fix formatting
NJ Gov: Corzine by < 2%; Christie demands recount
NY 23: Hoffman, by 2-5%
VA Gov: McDonnell, handily (>5%)
ME Q1: No (keep marriage equality), ~5%

Overall: Mild national pro-R trend, mainly from Rs recovering a little lost territory.

--d!
I have been known to be wrong

[mvd]

13. I think you are right on all of these

I just can't see NJ electing a conservative Repuke, but it will probably be very close.

[itsrobert]

19. That's 1 C, 1 R and 2 D

thanks

[Dogmudgeon]

21. True ... but not for long

Hoffman will be feted as the Republican New Man, the Great White Hope, slayer of Acorn, and herald of the insurgency of independent-thinking non-conformists who want all Americans to obey their One True Philosophy -- The Way of the Wet Tea Bag.

--d!

[Mister Ed]

23. Not so fast! NYT has Owens leading Hoffman 51%- 44% right now, with 23% reporting

http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/other.html

[Dogmudgeon]

24. Yep ... I'm blowing it tonight

I underestimated how many younger voters would stay home -- and Christie won. Marriage equality isn't faring too well in Maine. I may be one for four tonight.

Nate Silver's job is safe.

Meanwhile, it looks like Owens is doing unexpectedly well. 75% of the vote is in, and it's 49-46. But Hoffman also inoculated himself in the event of a loss by claiming Acorn was infiltrating. That seems to be GOP SOP these days, to accuse the Democrats of bringing in Hispanics or Blacks or Communists to "steal" the vote -- in every close election.

If Hoffman loses, the only upset the Republicans will have to crow about is Chris Christie, a socially liberal Republican who will piss off the wet tea bag crowd. They will again be forced into months of Colemanizing in support of a man who gave the Party a swift kick in the nuts. (And there are so many GOP nuts!)

I'm just crestfallen that so many younger voters stayed home. If it takes a charismatic candidate running a feel-good campaign to bring them out, we'll be up to our ass in elephants again in no time.

--d!

[Roland99]

22. Hard to discern any national trend from mid-Atlantic state. Esp. with the corruption in NJ

And Bloomberg's going for a 3rd term. He's not the most conservative of Repukes.

[grantcart]

15. That may be the best result - perhaps the party will take a break of trying to tear

itself down and actually unite.

For those in the middle that see that it is a big victory for Palin they may be experiencing heartburn.

[mvd]

16. Nate just Tweeted this

"*If* exits have Obama polling at 57% approval among NJ voters, that's good news for Corzine."

[endless october]

17. it's not a referendum on Obama or health care.

at least not to anyone but neocons.