VA-Gov: Why we're getting blown out today

[Ian David]

VA-Gov: Why we're getting blown out today
by kos
Digg this! Share this on Twitter - VA-Gov: Why we're getting blown out todayTweet this submit to reddit Share This
Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 02:00:03 PM PST

Ben Tribbett explains what happened:

In Virginia this year, one poll showed the percentage of the likely electorate under the age of 30 falling 70% from 2008–and the African American share of the vote falling 39% from 2008! That’s why virtually every poll has shown today’s likely electorate as having voted for John McCain by double digits over Barack Obama in Virginia last year–despite Virginia having voted almost exactly the reverse.

Unfortunately for us, the Deeds campaign freaked out and read these polls wrong over the summer. Instead of attempting to energize more young and minority voters to the polls to make the electorate more representative of Virginia–they began running a campaign targeted to the people already planning to vote. Creigh began bashing federal Democratic priorities like "Cap and Trade" and health care reform to appeal to the conservatives that were headed to the polls.

And every time he did it, polls indicated turnout shriveled even further among Democrats and progressive voters–making the electorate even older, whiter, and more conservative. To which Creigh responded to by bashing federal Democrats more–which resulted in even more progressives becoming disengaged. Over and over, the cycle continued. Over the last six weeks, PPP polls indicated the share of the electorate that identified as Democrats declined from 38% to 31%. In other words almost one out of every five self-identified Democrats planning to vote on Labor Day has since then looked at Creigh Deeds and his conservative message, and decided they weren’t voting. Ouch!

2010 will be a base election. The party best able to turn out its core voters has the best chance of winning. If Democrats want to see a repeat of Virginia at the national level next year, then they should cave to Blue Dogs and the media nabobs and water down reform efforts (whether in energy, health care, financial services, or immigration).

The further Right Deeds moved, the further his poll numbers collapsed. The correlation is clear, even if the Blue Dogs argue the opposite.

More:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/11/3/800062/-VA-Gov:-Why-were-getting-blown-out-today

[Ruby the Liberal]

1. Ignore the base at your peril, politicians...

Don't 'assume' we will be there, especially if we are busy trying to get out from under the bus on election day.

[appal_jack]

13. So true. k&r. n/t

[Tim01]

2. You think all those people who voted for Obama last year were the base?

I don't. I think they were a whole shitloat of starry eyed kids who wanted to be part of the historical election, but who normally wouldn't bother. And lots of black people who normally don't vote at all showed up for the first black president.
All of those people went back to staying at home just like they have done at every election EXCEPT for the election of President Obama.

[LisaM]

11. You're right, and I find it maddening

if they were so excited about Obama, why can't they get excited about helping him to sustain majorities, continue to make gains, and SUCCEED? Damn it, it's a long haul. Not just one historic election.

[VMI Dem]

3. Why did the base nominate right wing candidate Creigh Deeds?

Why were we stuck with such a pathetic candidate? Deeds weaknesses were well known before he was nominated. Heck, he lost to McDonnell in an election already. This will make two.

[williesgirl]

5. Because asshole Terry McAuliffe split the Dem vote in N. VA, that's why.

[VMI Dem]

6. So N. VA is going to turn out big for Deeds, right?

Bullshit.

[ProleNoMore]

4. Seems To Me That A Lack Of Very Strong Congressional And Administration Leadership

Over the last 10 months is party a contributor as well.

[robinlynne]

7. kick this puppy. say it loud and clear "The more we move to the right, the more we fail."

Amen.

[Jackpine Radical]

8. Reminds me of that old Truman quote--

"Give the voters a choice between a real Republican and a fake one, and they'll vte for the real one every time."

I keep visualizing the Blue Dogs holding guns to their own heads, hollering "Nobody move or the Congressman gets it!

[Canuckistanian]

9. I'd like to see the exit polls on how many Dems turned out

Oh, that's right. They don't do exit polls any more.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

10. I've said this elsewhere and before - he tried to out Republican the Republican

and turned OFF every real Democrat.

Trying to out Republican someone like McDonnell was a fool's errand in the first place. If people want a Republican, guess what? They will vote for one! The real coup de grace for Deed was when he said he would consider an opt out on the public option. So he made himself a Lieberman Democrat and was a one man Typhoid Mary for keeping the Dems indoors.

The only reason I got off my butt and voted today was for the poor souls who had the misfortune to share the ticket with him and all of them are damn fine and better than their opponents.

The lesson here is for the Blue Dog Democrats if they care to pay attention. The Republicans this time around will run fire- breathing, flag waving, Bible thumping Republicans. Just appear SANE and you will capture the moderates. You do not have to temper a Democratic viewpoint in any way and if you do, you will alienate all or most of your own.
*******
Edit - I did vote today and I did vote for Deeds and every other Democrat. I had considered witholding my vote for Deeds, because of the reasons above, but in the end I was a good soldier for all the good it will do.

[mgcgulfcoast]

12. makes sense

there wasnt alot of difference between the candidates. deeds gave no one a reason to vote FOR him.

[FSogol]

14. Wrong. McDonnell doesn't believe women should have the right to vote and

plans on gutting the public schools. Deeds is 1000x better.

[VMI Dem]

15. Deeds is and was a loser.

He is a right wing wannabe that got beat by the real deal.

[FSogol]

16. Congrats. You spent the entire day bashing the Democratic candidate.

What are you going to do tomorrow?

[marmar]

17. I agree completely.....

..... and I can see we have our usual election night visitors, scanning thru the responses.