U.S. Factory Orders Rise for Five Out Of Last Six Months (signs of sustained recovery)

[Statistical]

Orders placed with U.S. factories rose in September for the fifth time in six months, reinforcing signs that manufacturing will drive the economic recovery.

Bookings increased 0.9 percent, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after dropping 0.8 percent in August, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Excluding demand for transportation equipment which tends to be volatile, orders climbed 0.8 percent after a 0.3 percent August gain.

A record plunge in stockpiles and a boost to exports, in part from more than $2 trillion in global stimulus, means companies will ramp up production. The acceleration in manufacturing will help the economy grow this quarter, building on the expansion that began in the previous three months.

“Manufacturing is in recovery,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who correctly estimated the gain in orders. “There’s a need to rebuild inventories and exports are getting stronger. The economy does seem to be in a sustainable recovery now.”

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=axJ51nayEfmo
I got blasted last time I posted this (2 months ago after 4 months of improvements) so I don't expect anything different this time. Add another month where factory orders have risen.

Yet another sign for doom & gloomers to ignore. "Nothing to see here folks, keep moving no recovery in sight."

[David Zephyr]

1. I won't blast you because manufacturing is recovering...strongly.

I know. It's the business I am in. The last two months have been very strong.

[Raineyb]

2. Well when the dollar isn't worth shit our exports do become cheaper and

more desirable. But considering how completely craptastic the manufacturing sector has been of late, and the lack of jobs still you'll excuse me if I'm not celebrating.

[kestrel91316]

3. Here in the trenches we have stepped back from the precipice by

a tiny bit, but still have a long way to go to get out of the hole we are in.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. I see this as a glimmer of light, not an indication of a "sustained recovery"

How much of this is because the dollar is in the toilet?

Are any new jobs coming from this?

Don't get me wrong. I am glad to see this. My issue is that until we get back to full employment, it is wrongheaded (but perhaps not technically correct) to say we're seeing a "sustained recovery".

"Recovery" is when Main Street is happy and confident and meal time sees tables well stocked with good food.

[Statistical]

5. Sustained recovery leads to jobs. Jobs don't lead to sustained recovery.

Jobs come when companies experience two things:
a) demand for goods (including exports) exceed current labor capacity
b) there is a sustained track record of growth which reduces anxiety about expanding employment right before downturn.

Unemployment won't peak before Summer 2010. Bank on it.

[Stinky The Clown]

9. Sematics and icy cold facts .....

I'm not arguing your facts or even your essential premise .... based on the definitions we allow to be used.

I'd rather we call a sustained recovery the time AFTER full employment, not leading up to it. I'd prefer we call what you cite as a "sustained recovery" as a "recovering economic factor" or some such.

People are a part of the equation. The commonly held definitions seem to ignore of minimize people.

And that's the core of my point.

I'm not arguing with you. You're right to use the facts and the technically true conclusions and definitions. I simply argue that we need to change the *names* of some of these definitions.

[Mudoria]

6. The company I work for is going balls to the walls on filling orders..

we haven't seen this type of activity in almost 2 years. I just hope it continues.

[Statistical]

7. Glad to here it.

Our company recently made large purchase for networking gear something we put off for nearly 3 years due to recession. A cisco plants got an increase in orders from us.

[Brigid]

12. What does your company do?

What kinds of products do they make?

[Brigid]

8. When we actually have jobs coming back . . .

Then I'll start calling it a recovery. Not until. That said, it sounds like good news is in the air.

[forum slut]

10. My spouse's job was just eliminated last week. That must be because everything is so much better now

[Statistical]

11. Sorry to here that. I had the (seasonal) flu last week so everyone is infected.

Of course if more jobs were eliminated and more people were unemployed, and more factories shutting down somehow that would help your wife?

[berni_mccoy]

13. Thank the "Buy America" clause on the Recovery Act