'The Big Question: Are the Republicans becoming a force once again in US politics?' (UK Independent)

[Jackeens]

Why are we asking this now?

Today sees the first elections of significance in the US since the election of Barack Obama, who tomorrow celebrates the first anniversary of his own historic victory, recapturing the White House for the Democrats after eight years of George W Bush. And for once, Republicans are set to win something. Every sign is they will easily regain the governorship of Virginia, a state which in 2008 Obama became the first Democrat to carry in 44 years. The contest in New Jersey, the other state choosing a governor, is much closer. But a Republican win would be notable in a state that has been trending Democratic for a decade. Taken together, the results will inevitably be portrayed as a referendum on Obama, and a Republican double would be widely interpreted (in the Grand Old Party at least) as a national thumbs-down for a President whose approval ratings have already dropped to the mid-50s.

But would it be?

In reality, no. But in politics perceptions are all. This is what in American politics is termed an "off-year", without either a Presidential election or mid-term Congressional elections. As a result, turnout in both Virginia and New Jersey will be low. The Obama administration has all but written off Virginia, where the Democratic candidate has waged a poor campaign in a state which makes a habit of electing Governors from the opposite party to the one that holds the White House. New Jersey is a different matter. Obama has campaigned extensively for Jon Corzine, the incumbent Democrat (and a former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs). If Corzine loses – and final polls give his Republican opponent Chris Christie a narrow lead – the White House will naturally insist it's business as usual. But Republicans will be take a Democratic loss as proof that Obama's personal star-power no longer suffices to win elections on its own.

So have Republicans exorcised the George W Bush factor?

Up to a point. The last president left office with some of the lowest poll ratings and a collective national (and international) heave of relief. But nine months is an eternity in politics. Team Obama still blames the previous administration for the country's woes; the country however no longer sees it like that. This is now Obama's economy – 10 per cent unemployment and all. In the public mind, Iraq remains very much Bush's war, but the ever more unpopular Afghan conflict now belongs to Obama. Equally, Republicans had sunk so low under Bush in the 2006 and 2008 elections, that they had nowhere to go but up. In fact the party has corrected none of its underlying problems. It has yet to come up with convincing new leaders. Even more important, it remains intellectually bankrupt, bereft of new ideas.

So who are the brightest Republican stars?

As might be expected, name recognition from the recent presidential campaign counts for most right now. With John McCain out of the picture, the three most popular Republicans nationwide are McCain's two closest challengers for the 2008 nomination: former governors Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Then of course there's the polarising Sarah Palin, whose forthcoming memoir Going Rogue is already bestseller on Amazon, even though it doesn't hit bookstores until 16 November. Tim Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota and strongly considered by McCain as running-mate, is also a factor while some see Bob McDonnell, the telegenic Republican candidate for governor in Virginia, as a budding national figure. But an indication of how bare is the cupboard right now is the talk of former House speaker Newt Gingrich, yesterday's man if ever there was one, as a possible 2012 candidate.

More: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-big-question-are-the-republicans-becoming-a-force-once-again-in-us-politics-1813654.html

[demwing]

1. So Jackeens, what's your take on all this?

I've appreciated your many photo threads, and am curious what you feel about the above. Will VA and NJ go red? if so, what impact will this have on the Pres? Many good sions are begged by the content, tell us your thoughts.

[Arctic Dave]

2. "Even more important, it remains intellectually bankrupt, bereft of new ideas."

Reading this sentence alone was enough to bring a smile to my face.

The party of "NO", indeed.

[tblue]

3. Kinda like the "Knights who say 'Ni!'" it's really sticking, 'The Party of "NO"'

[Arctic Dave]

4. LOL.

[Greybnk48]

5. Not a chance. Their resurrection will take decades. : )