Christie Pulls Ahead in New Jersey

[Tony_FLADEM]

The final Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey finds Chris Christie (R) pulling ahead of Gov. Jon Corzine (D), 47% to 41%, with independent Chris Daggett at 11%.

Three weeks ago, Christie led by just one point but Corzine's momentum has stalled in the last two surveys.

Analysis: "Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats




I hope this poll is wrong.

[Selatius]

1. This wouldn't be an issue if the laws mandated run-offs in case nobody won a majority of the vote.

As it stands, even if the poll results are a true reflection of people's attitudes, it would mean there would be a run-off between Corzine and Christie because neither moved beyond the 50% + 1 threshold in the first round. Instead, we pick the victor who achieves a simple plurality. This is why there is a two-party monopoly in the first place.

[Wabbajack_]

13. Forget that ,IRV

Instant runnoff voting!

Anyway isn't Daggett an ex- moderate puke taking votes from Christie?

[CreekDog]

2. this poll gives Obama a 45% approval rating

and an polled 5 percent more Republicans than Democrats.

doesn't sound too realistic to me.

[tabbycat31]

3. I hope it is wrong too

Christie would just destroy the state. EVeryone who knows anyone in NJ who remotely leans D please call them and tell them to GOTV

[Dawson Leery]

6. Christie said he would not touch the Police pensions and salary

though fire, teachers, and municipal workers would be affected. This is telling.

[PretzelWarrior]

4. Christie is history. you don't fuck with Monty Python. another Repuke done in by a Palin

[Dawson Leery]

5. Then how do you explain this poll?

[PretzelWarrior]

7. the fact that it is one of many. you should take a class in statistics

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=34189

[Dawson Leery]

9. What evidence is there that shows that one

poll is more reliable than another?

Or should I say,iIs there one poll that has been more reliable than the others?
:shrug:

[Are_grits_groceries]

15. Human events is a RW site.

I wouldn't trust anything they published.

[DainBramaged]

8. (sigh) NJ will NOT go Puke, take it to the bank

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/man-vs-machine-in-new-jersey.html

There's a rather strange split in the polls in New Jersey's gubernatorial race: those conducted by live interviewers have Jon Corzine leading by an average of 4.2 points, but those conducted via IVR (automated scripts or "robopolls") have Chris Christie leading by an average of 3.0 points. The difference is statistically significant with probability t=3.26, i.e. about a 98 percent chance that it isn't the result of chance alone


This is probably not a phenomenon local to New Jersey; PPP and Rasmussen have generally shown pessimistic numbers for Democratic numbers in other states thus far this cycle. An automated poll tends to be associated with lower response rates, since an automated script can't do as much a human to coax someone into an interview, and therefore sometimes tends to reach a more enthusiastic set of respondents (in effect, it may serve some of the same functions as a very tight likely voter screen).

Since Republicans tend to be more enthusiastic right now, that may be what's causing the automated polls to be more favorable to them. But since none of us yet know how the enthusiasm gap is going to play out in practice, it would be premature to come to any conclusion about whether the voter universe that Rasmussen and PPP are coming up with is "too tight" or "just right". For that matter, I'm not yet ready to make a forecast for New Jersey; I certainly don't see it as self-evident that Jon Corzine ought to be as much as a 2:1 favorite, which is where Intrade has him now.

http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

[burning rain]

10. Did you see this? Bill Kristol predicted victory for Christie.

It'll be hard for Christie to survive that.

[Dawson Leery]

12. True.

:rofl:

Now to get Kristol in favor of the teabagger running in NY-23.

[AllentownJake]

11. Daggett is a wild card

If Dagget's support holds on election day, Corzine should win by a slim margin, if it drops significantly Christie is Governor.

[lpbk2713]

14. Is Chris Christie related to Jeff Christie aka Rush Limbaugh?

No, but wouldn't it be a hilarious turn of events. :rofl:

[Bitwit1234]

16. I guess Christie

told the people of New Jersey....I tell you to vote "and you can't refuse". Did you know that he is a cousin in the Geneovese Family. He attends ALL the family meetings with ALL the Geneovese members. Maybe some people in NJ are "afraid" not to vote for him. And he is also a protege of Rove who got bush to appoint him to a state attorney.

[malaise]

17. That's Rethug BS

Corzine will win

[old mark]

18. As of 6AM Monday, the Philly channel 6 News (ABC) reported the

"Last major poll before the election" said the race is "Too close to call". It will depend on the number of Democrats in NJ who actually get out and vote.
If Democrats don't vote, they should just shut the fuck up about what kind of government they have.

FWIW-Christie is a real first class pig.

mark

[tabbycat31]

19. the Democratic machine is paying canvassers for a GOTV effort

I did not receive my sample ballot yet so I'm raising hell with the board of elections today and most likely voting early.

[old mark]

20. Nobody is paying me.

I just hate republicans.

mark

[tabbycat31]

21. I'm not being paid either

but doing our own effort street canvassing for a GOTV effort (as I've done 3 of the last 4 days)