Brace yourself if you're a democrat--Tuesday's election likely will not be pretty

[WI_DEM]

Every poll is showing that Dems will lose the Virginia governors race (probably by double digits)and that the GOP victory there may be big enough to carry other republicans into office in the Old Dominion.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/29/201533/11

I believe that the Dem (Owens) will lose the open NY congressional seat, but on the other hand the GOP candidate may lose too. The winner probably if the late polling momentum is correct will be conservative party candidate Hoffman, who went from 23% to 32% in the latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll. This is a traditionally GOP district and if Owens does win he would vote like a blue dog, so I'm not sure we really are losing anything to lose this election.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/29/132937/46

Finally there is the NJ Governors Race. This one we do have some hope for. Corzine has been gaining in nearly every poll. The final Research 2000 poll shows a tight race:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos, 10/26-28, Likely Voters, MoE 4% (9/28-30 in parentheses):

Chris Christie (R) 42 (46)
Jon Corzine (D) 41 (42)
Chris Daggett (I) 14 (7)
Anyone looking for certainty regarding the outcome of next week's gubernatorial election in New Jersey will not find it here. As has been demonstrated in poll after poll, this is a contest that does not seem eager to be easily resolved.

As with virtually every other pollster, Republican Chris Christie has continued to lose ground through the month of October. What was a four-point lead for Chris Christie at the start of the month is now down to one, according to R2K.

Is there any reason to expect that Corzine will pull this off at the last, despite not being in the lead in this particular poll? Absolutely.

For one thing, while there are few undecideds in this final installment of the Daily Kos/R2K poll, those that are still undecided tend to come from pools of voters which should favor Corzine. The subgroup with the largest proportion of undecided voters are African-Americans (still 13% undecided). Corzine is already leading this group 82-4. It is somewhat hard to imagine that Corzine will not pick up the lions' share of those undecided African-American voters.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/24/234944/60

But ultimately I think Corzine loses. His job approval is low. It's an anti-incumbant year. Governors are in trouble nationally--Dem or Rep. The fact that most of the undecideds are part of the Democratic base tells me that there is a lack of enthusiasm among OUR BASE. Meanwhile I believe the GOP base is fired up and will vote. To win NJ it will come down to turnout and I'm thinking that they will turn there voters out but we may not. We'll find out in a few days. Hope I'm wrong.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Deeds was freaking awful as a candidate.

It's hard to imagine a worse candidate running for such a high-level office from a major state.

[FSogol]

3. And bashing Deeds is helpful how?

Save the negativity until after the election.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

6. Fair enough - it's not

However, the election might as well be over. He's not winning.

[FSogol]

11. Talk to your friends and coworkers. If there is a big turnout, Deeds can win.

Last weekend, Ms. FSogol and I drove out to Skyline Drive to see the leaves and were amazed at the number of Deeds signs in Front Royal and Sperryville. Deeds can still win this race.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

17. Unfortunately, i'll be out of town through election day.

So I won't be much use.

[Sebastian Doyle]

18. "It's hard to imagine a worse candidate"

..except for the useless asshat that Deeds beat in the primary.

[FSogol]

2. Get out the Vote. Call friends and family in those states. Never give up. n/t

[AndyA]

4. Perhaps it will be a preview of the 2010 elections, and will cause the Dems in Congress

to start acting like Dems for a change. If not, they may find themselves with extra time after November, 2010...

[MadHound]

5. Hmm, with Democrats caving in to their corporate masters in everything ranging from war to HCR,

I can understand why there is lack of enthusiasm among the Democratic base. There is that perception, mostly correct, that the dime's worth of difference that Nader spoke of has now shrunk to about two cents.

Face it people, if you want strong turnouts, if you want the help of liberals and progressives, then you've got to start addressing our issues, throwing us some major bones, make us feel wanted, make us feel that our interests are being addressed in ways that we find satisfactory. That is what being a big tent party means. Instead you've pissed all over us, laughed at us, scoffed at us, mocking us with "who else ya gonna vote for, Republicans" Well guess what, we can and will stay home, or go Green. And where does that leave you, screwed, blued and tatooed, that's where.

Even FDR understood that he had to placate liberals once in a awhile, why can't you get that through your heads? Or do you need some more lessons in this, like say in 2010 and 2012?

[emulatorloo]

21. Happily the teabaggers are energized! Teabagger rule is going to be fun! n/t

[onehandle]

7. I think we'll lose Virginia, win NJ. Proving nothing but that the regional party stays regional.

Gun toting teabaggers that hate Obama swell within the racist belt.

Duh.

[Sebastian Doyle]

8. I'm afraid I won't shed a single tear for an unemployed former Goldmine Sucks CEO

As for Virginia, seriously, is there a single ACTUAL Democrat in that entire state? And if there is, why don't they ever run for office?

[AllentownJake]

10. Mark Warner and Jim Webb

We hold both Senate Seats from Virginia.

[Sebastian Doyle]

16. Warner's a DLC tool

Webb, who actually ADMITS to being an ex-Republican, is probably as close as you get to a Democrat in that state.

[HillbillyBob]

19. Don't forget Periello dem rep from the Danville area.

I met him during the campaign and he seemed genuine.
I have not been keeping up. Have too much on my plate as is.
Starting an eco farm on old tobacco field, rehabing a house, getting married in two weeks and trying to get at least some rooms painted for the combo holy union, reception and house warming on Nov 21.

[karynnj]

15. Except it will hurt NJ

Corzine did a good job drastically cutting the budget when NJ was hit by simultaneous increases in people needing unemployment etc and the decreasing tax revenues as the huge capital gains of past years (which of course are taxed) disappeared. He did this keeping state aids to schools at at least the previous years rate. He also expanded the state version of SCHIP enough that it is one of the most expanded in the country - requiring our US Senators to get exceptions on some caps written into the renewal.

Chris Christie is proud of being a Reagan conservative.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

20. We had a great candidate with Brian Moran

who split the strong Dem vote with Terry MacAuliffe's vanity run leaving us with DINO Deeds. Deeds issue is that he has created zip differentiation of his stances with those of the Republican plus he is just not terribly compelling personally. So has nada in terms of Dem excitement GOTV and I think many will stay home cos they just won't care enough to get out. I still hope Deeds wins, but it is highly highly doubtful that he will.

I don't think he is any great canary in the mineshaft for a Republican takeover of the country as many would like to spin it - he's more a warning to DINOs and Blue Dogs if you ask me.

[AllentownJake]

9. The Wild Card in the New Jersey race is Dagget

If his support holds Corzine should win, if it doesn't it could be a Christie victory.

[Bitwit1234]

12. Really doesn't make any difference

who the democratic candidate was. Virginia is mostly all republican. the only time they vote a democrat in is when they want him to clean up the mess the republican made. All you have to do is check back and see. The republican gets in Virginia goes instantly down hill then a couple of terms later they get the democrat. Who straightens it all out. they never never never learn....Farwell did a number of Virginia that is not going to be easy to erase.

[Zen Democrat]

13. Brace myself ... WHY? Deeds sucks ... a really piss-poor Democrat is he.

If the Conservative candidate wins in NY-23, it will embolden the teabaggers and drive the Republican Party even further into the fringes. Corzine? Well, I think his Goldman background is a huge negative -- and a fair warning to other investment bankers in politics, especially Democratic officeholders and candidates.

Of course the media will spin Dem losses as Armegeddon but what's new? ... and who cares? The least respected people in the whole country are members of the media.

[karynnj]

14. In NJ, the Democrats have the far better get out the vote effort

The GOP base is not all that fired up about Christie, though they may be eager for any win. It may come down to whether the people saying Daggett stay with him.

We have many machine politics big cities on our side and they likely will whip people up to vote.

[ingac70]

22. Doesn't mean a damn thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_23rd_congressional_district#Recent_election_results