The quest for an H1N1 vaccine is turning out to be good business (Boston Globe)

[Prometheus Bound]

By Robert Weisman
Globe Staff / October 22, 2009
For drug makers, a shot in the arm
The quest for an H1N1 vaccine has been good business for some firms
For a handful of drug makers, including the Novartis AG vaccine division in Cambridge, the global effort to combat the swine flu is turning out to be good business, bringing them a $7 billion windfall.

.....The global market for vaccines is projected to more than double from $16 billion in 2007, the most recent year for which data are available, to $35 billion in 2014, according to Cambridge consulting firm Scientia Advisors.

.....Novartis expects to generate $900 million in the US and $1.2 billion worldwide from swine flu vaccine orders. That represents a small fraction of the $40 billion the company rings up annually in global biopharmaceutical sales, but it’s a big revenue boost for its vaccine division, which reported $1.7 billion in sales for 2008.
http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/


October 22, 2009, 8:29 AM ET
Inside the $7 Billion Swine Flu Vaccine Industry
The swine flu vaccine isn’t coming off the assembly line as fast as public health officials would like. But the vaccine, whenever it arrives, will still bring in billions for the companies rushing to bring it to market.

This morning’s Boston Globe cites an estimate that put global orders at $7 billion, spread among vaccine makers including Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline, CSL and AstraZeneca’s MedImmune.

The Globe takes a look at the Novartis effort, which has been slowed by low yields and a shortage of chickens (flu vaccine is still grown in chicken eggs). Still, in its third-quarter earnings announcement this morning, Novartis said it began delivering H1N1 vaccine in the last week of September and expects to produce 90 million to 120 million doses by the end of the year, with fourth quarter sales of $400 million to $700 million.

In recent years, GlaxoSmithKline has poured more than $3 billion into research, acquisitions and the like in an effort to build its pandemic business, the WSJ reported last week, and the company recently said governments around the world have ordered more than 400 million doses of its H1N1 vaccine.

Meanwhile, the American public still has mixed feelings about the swine flu vaccine. About half of parents say they plan to get their kids vaccinated, and fewer than 40% of adults say they plan to get vaccinated themselves, the Washington Post reports this morning.
http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2009/10/22/inside-the-7-billion-swine-flu-vaccine-industry/

[Robb]

1. Again, BFD. Chump change.

IIRC pharm sales are around $250 billion per year. I'm off to look it up again.

Edited to add: The number is $289 billion in the U.S. alone (in 2006).

[Prometheus Bound]

3. Not chump change for Novatis vaccine division

Their total 2008 sales were 1.7 billion. They expect 1.2 billion from swine flu orders alone.

[Robb]

4. Chump change for the industry. nt

[Robb]

5. Also

Novartis overall sales in 2008 were more than $50 billion.

[Prometheus Bound]

8. The Globe article says $40 billion. Where did you get your $50 B figure?

[Barack_America]

2. Yeah, it turns out people are eager not to die from the flu.

I wouldn't have predicted that, but that's why I don't play the market.

[stray cat]

6. Parents even appear to be against their children dying from it - go figure?

The percentage dying from H1N1 are low - but that doesn't matter much if you or your loved one falls on the wrong side of the percentages

[Skink]

7. Interesting to note they the private drug manufacturers are....

squabaling over if they can make a profit or not. This is a catagory one pandemic where there is some loss of life and there is not near enough vaccine available in major cities. What if this was cat 5.