Balloon 'not capable of lifting off' with the boy, Colorado police say ....

[Bushknew]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/10/18/colorado.balloon.vessel/

I know there are a lot of scientifically minded people here at DU.

So if you posted that this balloon was not capable of lifting off with the boy
please link your post here and bask in your glory of not being duped.

[dbonds]

1. We had a whole math thread here proving that it was marginal that it was possible.

Don't have the link though.

[Bushknew]

3. LOL, we have so many scientists here expert in vaccines & evolution that I'd love ...

to read the posts of those who got this right.

[dbonds]

5. Here is the thread I was referring to.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6784287

[Bushknew]

14. Ok, I’ve read the thread and there are 4 camps …..

Camp unlikely
dogtag slackmaster AllentownJake JBoy, Geek_Girl


Camp Fail
Madokie, SidDithers, slackmaster, tinrobot, No DUplicitous DUpe

Camp win
Elleng

Camp lots of math but no opinion.
Everyone else

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

37. Camp Fail? I started the thread, and my summation, ...

..."My conclusion is that the balloon in question (in a balloon that was more like 300 cubic feet) would not get off the ground with a 50lb child on board.

So I have great hopes that the boy is OK."

Fail? I think I called it pretty well.

[Bushknew]

38. I'm so sorry. My mistake! If anyone deserves the non dupe award it's you. You called it earlier than

NYC_SKP. Again, my apologies for my quick read through of the thread & putting you in Camp FAIL.

Kudos!!

[Bushknew]

21. congratulations to elleng

[stray cat]

8. Many self-proclaimed experts; the hard part is figuring out if any have expertise and solid info

or if people are posting based on an opinion, someone else's opinion or blog, picture on tv or more rarely real information from solid sources

DU and the internet are a found of misinformation - do your homework with legitimate sources if you really want information.

[snagglepuss]

12. I disagree. I think DU is a rather good source of information, its kind of like Wiki, in that

posters better either be right or be ready to defend their statements. The chaff is often quickly sorted from the wheat. Not 100% of the time but often.

[razorman]

35. Well, it was mathematically impossible to lift the boy away,

especially since he was nowhere near the balloon to begin with.

[mike_c]

2. I've worked with similar balloons that were only capable of carrying...

...a couple of pounds of payload, basically just some data recorders or cameras, but never anything as heavy as an average six-year-old boy. Of course, total lift depends upon the volume of helium actually inside the gasbag, so it's hard to say what the actual lift of any balloon is unless you know how much helium it contains, but assuming maximum volume, the Heene balloon looks only a little bit bigger than the largest balloon I've seen in operation, carrying very light weight instrumentation.

[NYC_SKP]

4. He didn't design it to lift a person, and it didn't appear to be laden while aloft.

I posted a bunch of replies, here is one.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6791070&mesg_id=6796102

Hoax...

[Bushknew]

7. Well done Sir, bask in your glory!!!! I want to read as many posts as possible.

[NYC_SKP]

11. Allow me to add that it's possible to judge the scale of an object without reference...

by, among other things, it's period of oscillation.

A short pendulum swings faster than a long one, that balloon while flying was looking a lot more like a big birthday balloon than a large passenger capable balloon.

Also, the bottom surface of the fabric was clearly not in tension.

Had there been any kind of load you'd have seen it stretched tight by the compartment pulling down.

Know what I mean?

[cwydro]

16. Every time I see a picture of it,

I start craving Jiffy Pop.

[Fumesucker]

18. Yep, it was pretty clear that there was very little load on that balloon..

Balloons with a payload look a lot more like this..



The bubble of helium is trying to escape out of the top of the balloon and the sides are stretched tight.

[Believing Is Art]

23. RE: Period of oscillation

Your logic is a little faulty there unless you're already assuming the kid isn't on the balloon.

[NYC_SKP]

24. Period of oscillation constant regarless of mass at end of pendulum...

Effects of wind notwithstanding.

P.O.O was just one of many visual clues like the wrinkling of the mylar, the appearance of seams, and others that seem to suggest a small scale.

[Believing Is Art]

27. IF the pendulum is fixed

Since a balloon is not fixed to anything, the mass distribution will affect the length of the pendulum arm since the balloon would be rotating about its center of mass. Had the balloon been capable of lifting the boy and had he been in the little compartment, the center of mass would have been very low and we would have seen very short oscillation periods - if we would have seen any rotation at all, that is.

It's an indirect influence but an important distinction to make.

edit: changed last sentence to make sense

[NYC_SKP]

28. All true. The balloon did not move in a way that suggested a concentration of mass in the bottom.

I wonder if there's a "center of lift" or some such term that, with a balloon, acts as the point around which the swinging occurs.

:shrug:

[Believing Is Art]

31. There's no center of lift on a balloon, per se.

I kind of hate using the term lift with balloons in general. But, if we stick with that term, it would be the center of volume since that's where we'd consider the buoyancy force to be acting. Calling it the center of buoyancy would be more accurate than calling it the center of lift. This is different than the point about which the swinging occurs - that's always the center of mass. Well, unless the center of mass and center of volume just happen to be the same location.

Note: The center of buoyancy is technically the center of mass of the displaced fluid. Since the fluid here is air, the balloon is fully immersed, and air has uniform density at a constant altitude, so the center of mass of the displaced fluid coincides with the center of volume of the balloon.

[whyverne]

29. I vote your's the best answer.

No sag, no weight. I dismissed any passenger immediately when I saw the first pictures. I do have close to 2000 flights in balloons though. They could have asked somebody. Speed has nothing to do with it. All un-powered lighter than air craft will move at the speed of the wind no matter what the size.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

20. not bin Laden?

what a relief.

[stray cat]

6. The police consulted with physicists at the time and estimated 90 lbs might be possible

any estimate with only seeing the balloon on tv is bogus speculation - with of course a 50% chance of guessing right

[NYC_SKP]

10. Based, however, on dimensions provided by Dad that proved to be incorrect.

And the professor's revised their estimates.

[LisaL]

33. They didn't have the balloon, they only had weight of the ballon that the father told them.

Surprise, surprise, the actual weight of the balloon was not exactly what the father told them.

[stray cat]

9. If a person didn't think the balloon could lift off with a child that no search would be conducted?

[snagglepuss]

13. The physicists weren't involved at the getgo so police had to assume

the father was telling the truth that the balloon had the capacity to carry a child.

[NYC_SKP]

17. As the inventor, Dad would know it couldn't carry his son, which makes him all the more guilty.

I know this is a different point.

I think Emergency types are going to err on the side of caution.

What if the professors are wrong?

It turns out that in fact they were, the dimensions provided were wrong.

Only if it had be utterly clear, like it was a two foot diameter, would they have called it off.

[niyad]

15. well, I don't have a science background, but, having missed the whole thing--and only seeing

late news--I took one look at that balloon and the speed at which it was flying and knew there was no child in it (quite apart from that closed box on the bottom)

said so in a number of threads since then

[ChairmanAgnostic]

26. ah, that rare logic thingie. nice to see it used.

(not you, just in general)

[ChairmanAgnostic]

19. even with two african swallows attached?

Of course, if the kid tripped and tried to fall to the ground, and missed, he could be flying without the balloon.

[Junkdrawer]

22. ROFLOL

:rofl:

[Whisp]

25. hmmm, I'm sure the police got an expert's advice

from some University that said that balloon could have held a weight of 80 lbs. I swear. Now they have changed the story?

confused.

as always with these silly stories

[LisaL]

32. The father gave them dimensions and weight of the balloon, and

based on this the professor calculated the balloon could lift a boy. But when they measured the actual dimensions and weight, it couldn't.

[LisaL]

30. The police know this after measuring the dimensions and

weight of the balloon. How did scientifically minded people on DU came up with it not knowing any of the parameters?
They didn't.
A good guess is not something to be all puffed up about.

[LostInAnomie]

34. There's no way anyone on here could have honestly known.

No on here can honestly say they knew the dimensions before it landed, because even the police didn't know the dimensions before it landed.

They had a 50/50 chance of getting it right.

[elleng]

36. I didn't but, just that it was not intended to carry anyone/thing.,

I don't bask in such, just common sense. Sorry if my common sense didn't go far enough.