60 Votes for Procedural Issues = Public Option and Health Care Reform are going to pass

[grantcart]

Democrats have the votes for the Public Option, the Republicans don't have enough to sustain a filibuster, and the Republicans probably want the bill passed anyway.

All of the interviews by the President and all of the town hall and campaign style meetings are aimed at precisely 6-7 Democratic Senators.

As Sherrod Brown has explained (and Senator Sanders before him)

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/sherrod-brown-rahms-wrong-on-public-option-chances-in-senate.php?ref=fpblg



"Not every Democrat right now would prefer the public option in the Senate ... but no Democrat in the end is going to vote against a procedural question to kill the health care bill," he said.

"The 60 Democrats will stay together on procedural questions and then, on final passage, some may vote against it because it's got a public option. But I don't see that," he said. Brown added that at least 50 Democrats in the Senate support the public option.

The Senate can pass any bill with 50 votes and the Vice President. The only obstacle is making sure that the Republicans don't succeed in filibustering the debate.

It is one thing for a Democratic Senator to vote against the public option or even the reconciled bill. It is something completely different to cross the aisle to help the Republicans sustain the filibuster and prevent a vote. To do so would bring the wrath of the caucus down on that Senator jeapordizing committee chairmanships and assignments, those things that make it easy to raise money from lobbyists. It would also be a stupid futile gesture, if they did that then they would simply use reconciliation.

Moreover the Republicans are going to kick and cry but that doesn't mean that they don't want the legislation passed. Pharma and the AMA are happy with it. Private insurers will get atleast a temporary boost in business. It takes a sticky issue off the table and all of the problems that result, and there will be some, will be laid at the feet of the Democrats. The mandates will make a lot of people unhappy. The Republicans have nothing to lose having it pass, they will be able to run on a platform that if the Democrats aren't stopped the Health Bill is just the begining that the Democrats intend to take over all sectors of the economy. They will run on voting for Republicans to slow the Democrats down, so letting the Democrats pass the legislation will help them make their case.


The Democrats have 60 votes for procedural issues and 51 for the Public Option.

[stray cat]

1. Since when are the 60 democrats going to vote in mass w/o dissension for a strong public option?

[ddeclue]

2. I'll be shocked to see Ben or Bill Nelson, Max Baucus, Joe Lieberman or several other DINOS do

the right thing.

This also assumes MA can seat Kirk as their new Senator and that the lawsuit gets dismissed.

[stray cat]

3. all my fears as well

[grantcart]

6. there will be no effective lawsuit. The Senate is the sole decider on who is eligible to sit there.

[ddeclue]

10. That is NOT clear. The 17th Amendment leaves the picking of Senators largely in the hands of states

and the states can set their own rules for elections -therefore this is a STATE and not FEDERAL issue - to wit, we just saw this with the Al Franken situation.

[JerseygirlCT]

12. Yeah, I can absolutely see Lieberman

pontificating about the value of bipartisanship and abandoning the Dems - again.

[grantcart]

4. they aren't, they don't have to, and you missed the point of the article

missed what Senator Sanders has been saying for a month and what Senator Brown is now saying is a fact.


No Senator in the Democratic Caucus is going to cross the aisle to help the Republicans prevent a vote by helping them sustain a filibuster. They will stand as a caucus on the procedureal issues and a few might vote against it, but all that is needed is 51 votes on the bill and 60 votes on the procedural votes.

[Parker CA]

5. This lets the blue dogs and faux-dems vote against filibuster, but then also vote against the PO,

thus not helping the pukes and not having to support a HC bill they don't believe in. Take the 50 plus Biden that support the PO after the cloture vote is complete and we have the HC bill with PO.

My only worry would be that someone on our side doesn't plan on pulling a Specter down the road and decides that this is their chance to make the jump and to give the pukes the vote they need to succeed in filibustering.

Things look good still though. Now it seems that the "robust" in robust PO needs to be made more clear, but regardless, we're moving forward and making progress and a bill will be passed.

[grantcart]

7. They are not going to "pull a Spector" because if they cross the aisle they are not

going to be in the majority and unlike Spector get a committee chairmanship.

They will bitch a little and the President will reach into his goody bag and pull out either some projects that will help their state or agree to a bunch of fund raisers to help his campaign. In the final inning the President has a lot of power he can apply to help a Senator do the right thing, and a lot to punish a Senator who does the wrong thing.

There's also this: The President has gotten everything passed that he has sent up to capital hill, he knows how to count and how to close the deal.

[Parker CA]

8. I agree very strongly with your last statement. This pres does know how to close. Out of

curiousity, how many dems would have to defect from the cloture vote and go with the other side to give the goppers adequate numbers to filibuster? Two or three?

[BumRushDaShow]

11. One.

There are "only" 60 Democrats, assuming that Paul Kirk is permitted to be the Kennedy replacement after this hearing tomorrow. They need every vote.

[BlooInBloo]

9. Shuffling forward like a drunken hobo.

[grantcart]

13. that's my party!!!!

[autorank]

14. Brown does a good job. Solid k*r

He was particularly good in questi8oning the 3 auto CDO's and he's right on this issue.

The public option is the gateway to single payer,imho. There will be limited enrollment but, count
on it, demand will vastly exceed demand. That creates a movement - universal health care.

There will be a lot more to come here - how close will the final markup be to Obama's proposal as
outlined in his speech? Will the public option be only for the uninsured as i the speech? Will
we have to wait 4 years for the "exchange" while the guy "gets it right?" Too early to tell but
one thing for sure, a lot of people think that the public option is going to be universally available.
Good! It's the right expectation.

But the debate is worthwhile and shows that the people will pay attention for a long time when the
issue is in their interests.