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In 2006, voter dissatisfaction with W led to an upset and Democrats captured the House and Senate.
In 2002, it was said that although a first-term president’s party had not gained ground in midterm elections since 1934, Republicans widened their majority in the house by a few seats and recaptured the Senate.
The evidence does seem to support that.
For other midterms back to 1966. Year President's Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Party House Senate 2006 R R-30 R-6 2002 R R+8 R+2 1998 D D+5 0 1994 D D-54 D-8 1990 R R-8 R-1 1986 R R-5 R-8 1982 R R-26 0 1978 D D-15 D-3 1974 R R-48 R-4 1970 R R-12 R+1 1966 D D-48 D-3 1962 D D-4 D+2
But statistics aren't history. There are a few things that I think bear watching. (1) Repubicans are at historic lows. Their message at this time has been for party purity rather than attempting to expand their voter base. (Remember Dean's work to rebuild the party in 50 states. Wath Repulican Party building efforts. They havn't done it yet, but if they do this could be some trouble.)
(2) Health-Care: If Obama looses the health-care debate and nothing is passed, there will be a lot of disillusioned Democrats and independents who will not vote for his party. Republicans will get their base out through a combination of race baiting and lies. Republicans will win seats. Whichever party gets out the msot voters will have success.
Republicans will tell us that if the win even 1 extra seat in the midterm, that the public has repudiated Obama. If the status quo is maintain, they have stopped Obama from socializing the United States. If they loose seasts, even 1, they will blame it on Acorn.
Start now. Talk to everyone you can. Plan an election Party for the midterms, take a vacation day, and invite everybody to come and party after they vote.
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