New York, New Jersey, Connecticut: Are you ready for a hurricane?

[ddeclue]

According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project:

16% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2009. Normal value is 15%.

10% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in 2009. Normal value is 9%.

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html

5% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in 2009. Normal value is 4%.

>99.9% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in the next 50 years.

99.4% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.

90% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years.

snip...

Experts now believe that after Miami and New Orleans, New York City is considered the third most dangerous major city for the next hurricane disaster. According to a 1990 study by the US Army Corps of Engineers, the city has some unique and potentially lethal features. New York's major bridges such as the Verrazano Narrows and the George Washington are so high that they would experience hurricane force winds well before those winds were felt at sea-level locations. Therefore, these escape routes would have to be closed well before ground-level bridges (Time, 1998). The two ferry services across the Long Island Sound would also be shut down 6-12 hours before the storm surge invaded the waters around Long Island, further decreasing the potential for evacuation.

A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York City area (Time, 1998).


....

[billyoc]

1. I'm 10% ready.

[ddeclue]

2. What does that mean?

??

[billyoc]

3. I'm staying 10% ready for a 10% chance.

[ddeclue]

5. Would you play Russian Roulette? That's a 16% chance.

:P

[billyoc]

6. Then I'll stay 16% ready.

I've seen weather before.

[ddeclue]

7. ok... somehow I really doubt you've seen a real hurricane up close and personal.

:eyes:

[billyoc]

12. I'm sure you do.

[Chemisse]

4. Damn! That would be a mess.

I suppose as hurricanes find the waters up the coast to be a bit warmer, they will manage to maintain energy long enough to strike in the northeast more often than they have been.

And if the sea water rises due to global warming, any coastline city will be more vulnerable from hurricanes.

I hope they have their evacuation plans dusted off.

[annabanana]

8. Ah yes. . . nothing vulnerable around here...

south shore, long island

[no_hypocrisy]

9. In 1986 the eye of Hurrican Gloria was in Southampton.

I remember it well as I had to drive to "rescue" my mother in her house because her car wouldn't start. We missed the first hit by hours.

[Feron]

10. If Ike teaches anyone anything it's that....

a hurricane doesn't have to be a major one in order to be water pusher. NYC could potentially face a wall of water from a storm that may only be a Cat 2.

I do hope that emergency services has a plan.

[smalll]

11. Bring It On. At least in NY an Connecticut, our landscape is respectably hilly -- this aint Florida

so the waves won't reach up that far. You could walk a couple blocks up from the Hudson River to Riverside Drive, and you're already out of the danger zone.

I also remember "Hurricane Gloria" --- got to stay home that day from school --- remember watching the local news, and seeing a graphic of a big-'ol wave slowly washing over little silhouettes of houses. Didn't happen. Never resented the hype though -- no-one looks a snow-day equiavlent in the mouth. :shrug:

[ddeclue]

13. Ummm Manhattan and LI? I don't think so...